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Saturday Bubble Watch UPDATED 3:05

615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
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Thursday was a great day for the bubble, yesterday not so good.

<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">10:30 UTEP vs. Houston</span><br style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">UTEP is in. Houston has played their way into the NIT. A Houston victory would be disastrous. </span>

<span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">17 you UTEP. </span>
<br style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">12:00 Rhode Island vs. Temple</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">This is the second most important (besides ours) of the day for the bubble. We desperately need URI (23-8, RPI 39) to lose.</span>

<span style="font-weight: bold;">Rhode Island laid an egg. They drop below us in the pecking order if we win.</span>

<span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">12:30 Duke vs. Miami</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">Duke is in, obviously, but Miami is two wins away from claiming an auto bid. Lets go ahead and get Miami knocked out early today. </span>

<span style="font-weight: bold;">Duke held off a good effort from Miami to avoid another chance at losing a spot. </span>

<span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">12:40 Illinois vs. Ohio State</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 0);">The talking heads claim Illinois is in (19-13, RPI 72), but a loss drops them to 14 losses and an RPI under 75. Whether they are in or not baffles me, but a loss certainly helps us. Hopefully OSU can win by 20+ and put some doubt in the committee's mind. </span>

<span style="font-weight: bold;">It took double overtime and some horrible last second play from Illinois, but we got this one to go 2-for-2 in the quadfecta. </span>
<br style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">2:15 Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt</span>
We (22-10, RPI 64) have to win this one to get on the right side of the bubble. A loss and we are in the NIT. A win and the right things happen, and we're in.

2:30 NC State vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is in. NC State is not. Like the other ACC semifinal, we need Tech to go ahead and end NC State's run.

<span style="font-weight: bold;">3:00 Minnesota vs. Purdue</span>
Purdue is playing for a #1 seed. I'm not sure Minnesota is in (20-12, RPI 68). A big win by Purdue would be nice.

5:00 Washington vs California
Both of these teams are likely in, but a Washington loss drops them to 22-10, and they should be sweating tomorrow.

6:00 UNLV vs. San Diego State
Again, both teams have probably punched their tickets, but SDSU's is not confirmed.

9:00 Utah State vs. New Mexico State
Utah State is in regardless, and should have no trouble with New Mexico State. But a NMSU win takes another spot, so its on this list.

I have bolded the Saturday quadfecta. If all four of these things happen, we're probably in.
 
AlCoDog

AlCoDog

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Feb 27, 2008
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We control our own destiny. Like you said, we have to win today for anything else to matter. Her's to JV abusing Ogilvy all day long.
 
V

VegasDawg13

Freshman
Jun 11, 2007
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Vandy, Wisconsin twice, Clemson, and Michigan State.

They also have a winning record on the road.
 
00Dawg

00Dawg

Senior
Nov 10, 2009
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they beat Clemson and Vandy. In the Big 10, they beat Michigan St in their only meeting and took 2 out of 3 from Wisconsin. ESPN showed them with a 3-8 RPI Top 50 mark yesterday, but apparently they already had 4 wins.
Bad losses are Utah, Bradley, and Northwestern. UGA beat them, but the Red Dawgs' RPI will probably finish just better than 100.
 
615dawg

615dawg

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Jun 4, 2007
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They finished fifth in the fifth rated RPI conference (yes, below the SEC).
They were 4-4 against teams rated 101-200
They have lost 5 of their last 7 and their next loss will be their 14th.

I don't get it. Everyone has them as a lock. Bubble team, maybe, but lock?

Minnesota is just as perplexing:

Sixth in the Big 10
4 sub-100 losses (including one to 221st Indiana)
Their next loss will be No. 13

And they beat Illinois head to head.

Neither one of them deserve it, but both will probably make it.

The Big Ten's conference RPI is .5514, Last year, the SEC's conference RPI was .5513 (That is one ten-thousandth of a point from being exactly the same)

Last year, the SEC would have got two teams in if we did not win the tournament.
This year, the Big Ten will get at least five, maybe 6.
 
A

ArlngtnDawg

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Oct 28, 2003
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615dawg said:
6:00 UNLV vs. San Diego State
Again, both teams have probably punched their tickets, but SDSU's is not confirmed.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit confused on this one. I would have thought SDSU had a better chance at an at large. Are you saying UNLV is a better lock for an at large than sdsu?
 
F

Foronce

Redshirt
Mar 26, 2008
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we take florida's spot, cause i don't know if there is another spot for us.

I really think we are going to need 2 more
 
00Dawg

00Dawg

Senior
Nov 10, 2009
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ArlngtnDawg said:
615dawg said:
6:00 UNLV vs. San Diego State
Again, both teams have probably punched their tickets, but SDSU's is not confirmed.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit confused on this one. I would have thought SDSU had a better chance at an at large. Are you saying UNLV is a better lock for an at large than sdsu?
Click to expand...
UNLV has been locked for a while. They're fighting to get out of the 8-9 seed slot.
 
615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
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Right now we're the second team out, this makes us the third team out. Which means we will probably have to win two.
 
V

VegasDawg13

Freshman
Jun 11, 2007
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I think the last spot is still up for grabs between us, URI, Minnesota, and all the idle bubble teams.

If one more thing goes against though (ACC surprise winner, Minnesota beating Purdue, etc.), then I believe we have no chance of an at-large.

Edited to add: Of course, considering that the very first thing of the day that could go against us did, I wouldn't expect the rest of the stars to line up at this point.
 
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