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scheduling thoughts

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tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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The RPI formula is .25(WP)+.5(OWP)+.25(OOWP)

I've been thinking about this and how to manipulate the RPI system. I think the most important thing to do is wait until alot of other teams have already completed their schedules; this will become apparent in asecond. I alsothink there are3 types of teams that you want to schedule:

1. Small Conference schools that are projected to finish close to the top of their conference and schedule a bunch of top tier teams. Since WP and OOWP account for 50% of the factor. Since they scheduled a bunch of big boys, they are going to have alot of losses early, but as long as they do well in their conference,you could expect to get half or .25 of the OWP factor. Since other teams in their conference played major conference schools too and are also going to lose to the team in question, we wouldn't realize the full .25 of OOWP. I think .125 is conservative because these teams will be playing "buy" games and thus will only take a .6 (as opposed to 1) for a loss. So lets go with .15. That comes to a realized weighting of at least .65 if we win the game.

2. The big boys - If you play a team like duke that won 88% of their games this year, that is a realized OWP factor of .44. Lets go conservative with OOWP and use .125. If we somehow won the game, it would be realized weighting of .81. But since we more than likely would not, even in a loss it would be a weighting of .31. And if we played them on the road, it would be .41 OWP+OOU-?(.25*.6). In this case, worst case scenario isn't that bad so it could be considered low risk with high reward.

3. Top mid-major teams are probably the best teams to schedule. Their conference opponents will likely be getting a majority of their losses on the road, and they play alot of major conference teamsso we will use .175 for OOWP. Butler and Gonzago had similar records, we will go with 24-9...that is a winning percentage of 73%. This factors into an OWP of 36.5. Thus a win would result in a realized weighting of .79 and would be alot more probable than beating duke. While a loss would result in a realized weighting of .29 still.

The worst teams to schedule in order are the bottom teams of mid/small conferences, followed by the bottom teams of major conferences, followed by the middle teams of mid/small conferences. Unfortunately, our non-conference slate consists of nothing but these 3 things.
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
8,374
983
113
The RPI formula is .25(WP)+.5(OWP)+.25(OOWP)

I've been thinking about this and how to manipulate the RPI system. I think the most important thing to do is wait until alot of other teams have already completed their schedules; this will become apparent in asecond. I alsothink there are3 types of teams that you want to schedule:

1. Small Conference schools that are projected to finish close to the top of their conference and schedule a bunch of top tier teams. Since WP and OOWP account for 50% of the factor. Since they scheduled a bunch of big boys, they are going to have alot of losses early, but as long as they do well in their conference,you could expect to get half or .25 of the OWP factor. Since other teams in their conference played major conference schools too and are also going to lose to the team in question, we wouldn't realize the full .25 of OOWP. I think .125 is conservative because these teams will be playing "buy" games and thus will only take a .6 (as opposed to 1) for a loss. So lets go with .15. That comes to a realized weighting of at least .65 if we win the game.

2. The big boys - If you play a team like duke that won 88% of their games this year, that is a realized OWP factor of .44. Lets go conservative with OOWP and use .125. If we somehow won the game, it would be realized weighting of .81. But since we more than likely would not, even in a loss it would be a weighting of .31. And if we played them on the road, it would be .41 OWP+OOU-?(.25*.6). In this case, worst case scenario isn't that bad so it could be considered low risk with high reward.

3. Top mid-major teams are probably the best teams to schedule. Their conference opponents will likely be getting a majority of their losses on the road, and they play alot of major conference teamsso we will use .175 for OOWP. Butler and Gonzago had similar records, we will go with 24-9...that is a winning percentage of 73%. This factors into an OWP of 36.5. Thus a win would result in a realized weighting of .79 and would be alot more probable than beating duke. While a loss would result in a realized weighting of .29 still.

The worst teams to schedule in order are the bottom teams of mid/small conferences, followed by the bottom teams of major conferences, followed by the middle teams of mid/small conferences. Unfortunately, our non-conference slate consists of nothing but these 3 things.
 
C

Coach34

Redshirt
Jul 20, 2012
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one of the excuses by the Stansbury Apologists is that we have budget constraints to keep us from scheduling better due to guarantees and such. But its actually more expensive to play a weaker schedule. We pay out guarantees to Centenary, Valley, and the very small schools with no return game to their campus-meaning no guarantee for us. Those games have small crowds and no TV

If we would eliminate 2 of those games and play a couple of top 100 teams instead, we would pay a higher guarantee at our place- but we would get that money back when we went to their place. We would also have larger November-December crowds, and be on TV more- thus increasing our exposure.

Thought that was a very good point that needed to be brought up in regards to scheduling.
 
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tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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without aguaranteed Home and Home, or those teams won't even play us at their place with no return game. See playing UCLA on "neutral" court. But as far as RPI goes,losing to a top flight team at their placeis still better than beating a 300 RPI team at home.
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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Stansbury has to get better at doing his homework and scheduling only the better teams of the Southland, Southern, Sun Belt, etc conferences. Playing an average or worse team (compared to other teams in that conference) absolutely kills us win or lose.
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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but scheduling can ensure that if you lose, you are losing to better teams, and taking less of an RPI hit. I don't guess we can take LSU and Auburn of our schedule though.

But I didn't write this as what State should do. I wrote it as what any coach trying to get the most of the RPI should do.
 
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GratefulDawg.sixpack

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Mar 3, 2008
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1. We should play Memphis in a home-and-away every year. No exceptions. I know that Cal refused to play us, but he's gone and Stans should set something up with Pastner. They know one another.
2. UAB should also be on the schedule. They are usually a good team, last night excepted.
3. Pick a team from the ACC and another team from the Big 12. Home and away. Clemson and Mizzou were good opponents. Do it again. Texas, A&M and Baylor would be great targets. When was the last time we got a player from TX?
4. Get in one tournament in a vacation location.
5. Hope for a good opponent in the SEC-Big East challenge. Pray that you don't get DePaul.
6. One SWAC team (preferably the previous year's champion) in Jackson. No more.
7. Pick last year's champion from the Southern Conference and the Missouri Valley Conference. Do a home and away with the latter if necessary.
8. Find teams from the Horizon League and the Colonial Athletic Association. Home and away.
9. Hell, do a guarantee game away with one of the major powers - Duke, UNC, KU. If they won't return it, who cares? We need the exposure.
10. Stay on top of your damn players' actions. Communicate with them on a regular basis. No more academic and drafting 17-ups. It's not that hard.
11. No fights on TV in tropical locations.
 
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Coach34

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Jul 20, 2012
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Even with wins over Rider and W. Kent we would have been a bubble team heading into the SEC Tourney- a 22-23 win BCS school ahould not be a bubble team
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,040
25,054
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And I know we did home-and-homes with Oklahoma and BYU in the past. It's not like it can't be done.

One thing that will help the schedule is the expanded SEC-Big East Challenge. Starting next year, every SEC team will participate every year and the games will be on campus sites. So we'll essentially get a home-and-home with a Big East team for the next 4 years (it just won't be the same team every year). Of course, with our luck they'll stick us with DePaul again.
 
57stratdawg

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,356
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argue the same thing. People keep saying it's losing to cupcake schools that cost us, and granted it does, but even wins over Rider and WKU would still put us having to win games in Atlanta to get into the NCAA. That has to change.

I feel like the selection committee has made it pretty well known that you get rewarded for playing tough OOC and you get punished for playing a weak one.

There isn't any justification in playing such a ****** OOC. It shouldn't even be an option. Why should we play teams that only represent risk to our tournament chances?
 
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Cousin Jeffrey

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2011
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1. Eliminate 2 patsies from the schedule. Replace them with top-100 RPI teams. I know this is hard to know before the season starts, but we can try harder than Tennessee St and Nicholls St.
2. Play at least one game in November/December on the road.
3. Play a game in Jackson EVERY year. It can even be a patsy.

Doing ONLY the above (and it's not much) would probably improve our RPI by 20 spots. This year, it wouldn't matter. But in years where we're even remotely on the bubble, an additional 15-20 RPI spots would be crucial.

Notice that none of the above even mentions winning. But when we don't do any of those things, we're already digging a hole. And when we don't beat the losers on our schedule at home, the hole becomes a grave.
 
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Coach34

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Stansbury than they do our basketball program. It's always about excuses for this and that. Or that we got cheated. It's never "what we are doing isnt working, so lets make some changes"

If we improve our schedule- we get a chance to get more TV exposure and the chance to get a decent seed in the NCAA Tourney

If we cant win enough to get in the NCAA's with an improved schedule- then we need to change coaches.

It's pretty simple.
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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I must have been thinking football

On a side note, I wish mstateathletics.com had as extensive of an archive as Okie St's site has.
 
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paindonthurt_

All-Conference
Jun 27, 2009
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What gives us a better chance of getting in the tournament?

Option A: 23 and 12 with losses to two top 60 rpi teams instead of Rider and WKU

or

Option B: 25 and 10 with wins over Rider and WKU

Option B does.

The kicker is if you have the coaching to win the LARGE majority (90% to 95%) of the "should wins" then you likely win a few more of the 60/40s and 50/50s. You also get a major upset here and there (against top 25). So instead of being 25 and 10 you are 26 and 9 or 27 and 8.

Maybe scheduling would help, but it isn't the major problem.
 
57stratdawg

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,356
24,132
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We played VT, Washington St, and Saint Mary's. Then again our first tournament team didn't come until UGA on Jan 22.

I just say schedule 2 BCS conference schools and one tough tournament. Play NC State, Baylor and the Hawaii Invitational, or Florida State, Minnesota and Coaches for Caner. We could fill the rest in with cupcakes. That would probably be 3 or 4 top 100 RPI teams, at least. And MAYBE one of those teams makes a run into the top 25.

Remember in '09-'10 Florida beat Michigan State real early, and Michigan State ended up being a top team that year. That got UF in the tournament over us even though we beat Florida 3 days before selection Sunday in the SEC Tournament.
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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Yet they got in and weren't even considered a bubble team. They had 7 RPI top 50 wins though.

You could argue how Stans would be able to win against tougher teams when he loses to Rider and FAU. But I would counter with him beating TN and AR on the road but losing to AU at home right before that. He is erratic enough that he would win some of those tougher games.
 
M

Mullenation

Redshirt
Dec 14, 2008
402
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We need a ****** OOC schedule to let Stans play 10 guys and figure out which lineup works, so we can be ready for the brutal SEC west. OOC for Stans is just a learning curve so we can get hot in early january and hopefully get 12 SEC wins, which will guarantee a bid to NCAA tourney.. RIGHT!?
 
T

tenureplan

Senior
Dec 3, 2008
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And I think that it is time. But coaching is not the only problem. He's been to the tournament 6 times, he is not incapable of getting there. Improving the scheduling would help him in getting back there as well as benefiting our potential seeding. </p>
 
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paindonthurt_

All-Conference
Jun 27, 2009
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Getting to the tournament doesn't mean much when you consistently underachieve. Yeah I know we played Xavier, Duke and Memphis, but it was coaching that put us in those positions (minus maybe Xavier).

In 13 years we should have been to the tournament a minimum of 8. In 6 tries you should be able to reach the Sweet 16 at least once considering the talent we've had. And Yes I know it hasn't been unbelievable ALL NBA talent, but it has been a lot better than what most apologists will admit.
 
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MadDawg.sixpack

Redshirt
May 22, 2006
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MSU 74
#1 Memphis 77

and

MSU 64
Texas 68

win those two games and Stans has 2 Sweet Sixteens on his resume. And all is right with the world. And Coach34 is Stans biggest fan.
 
mstateglfr

mstateglfr

All-American
Feb 24, 2008
15,739
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GratefulDawg said:
1. We should play Memphis in a home-and-away every year. No exceptions. I know that Cal refused to play us, but he's gone and Stans should set something up with Pastner. They know one another.
2. UAB should also be on the schedule. They are usually a good team, last night excepted.
3. Pick a team from the ACC and another team from the Big 12. Home and away. Clemson and Mizzou were good opponents. Do it again. Texas, A&M and Baylor would be great targets. When was the last time we got a player from TX?
4. Get in one tournament in a vacation location.
5. Hope for a good opponent in the SEC-Big East challenge. Pray that you don't get DePaul.
6. One SWAC team (preferably the previous year's champion) in Jackson. No more.
7. Pick last year's champion from the Southern Conference and the Missouri Valley Conference. Do a home and away with the latter if necessary.
8. Find teams from the Horizon League and the Colonial Athletic Association. Home and away.
9. Hell, do a guarantee game away with one of the major powers - Duke, UNC, KU. If they won't return it, who cares? We need the exposure.
10. Stay on top of your damn players' actions. Communicate with them on a regular basis. No more academic and drafting 17-ups. It's not that hard.
11. No fights on TV in tropical locations.
Click to expand...
So according to your post, our non-conference schedule shouldlook like this:

-Memphis
-Big12 team
-ACC team
-UAB(who is overall usually a good team...not great but also not bad)
-BigEast team for ourinterconference challenge
-The MVC champ(who is typically a top50 team at least)
-Horizon team
-CAA team
-SoCon team
-Top10 national team
-Destination tournament where we would typically play a good team and possibly a very good team.
-The SWAC champ

Holy ****, that is the most insanescheduling i have seen in awhile. Gonzaga isnt even that nuts.
 
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paindonthurt_

All-Conference
Jun 27, 2009
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And the only reason we played #1 Memphis that year was b/c we lost a couple of ****** games early. Same ole same ole.

He isn't a good coach.
 
I

Irondawg

Senior
Dec 2, 2007
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Boy if Michigan State had lost that OT game at home versus Indiana it would have probably doomed them.

They are a great example of getting rewarded for a hard schedule. I seem to recall about 5 years ago a 17-15 (or something like that) Indiana team making the tournament b/c they had a Top 5 SOS so their RPI was really high.
 
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