UCLA Bruins
PAC12 Conference
Head Coach: Steve Alford 517-261, 54-26 at UCLA in 3rd season
Schedule (Record: 4-3)
11/13/15 Monmouth L ot 81-84
11/15/15 Cal Poly W 88-83
11/19/15 Pepperdine W 81-67
11/23/15 vs UNLV W 77-75*
11/24/15 vs Kansas L 73-92*
11/25/15 vs Wake Forest L 77-80*
11/29/15 Cal State Northridge W 77-45
*Maui Invitational Game
Game Info:
12/3/15 Kentucky at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, Pauley Pavilion, 9:00 pm EST (6:00 PAC)
Probable Starters (with stats through 7 games)
G #20 Alford, Bryce 6-3 180 Jr. (15.3pts*, 4.6reb, 5.6ast*, 28.1% from 3)
G #03 Holiday, Aaron 6-1 185 Fr. (13.0pts, 3.4reb, 3.14ast, 45.5% from 3*, 2.0 stls*)
G #10 Hamilton, Isaac 6-5 185 Jr. (11.9pts, 4.4reb, 3.14ast, 32.3% from 3)
F #23 Parker, Tony 6-9 260 Sr. (14.1pts, 12.1reb*, no 3pt threat)
C #40 Welsh, Thomas 7-0 245 So. (12.0pts, 6.1reb, no 3pt threat)
Bench
G #05 Ali, Prince 6-3 190 Fr. (7.1pts, 0.9reb, 41.7% from 3)
F #43 Bolden, Jonah 6-10 215 So. (3.8pts, 4.7reb, 25.0% from 3)
F #00 Olesinski, Alex 6-10 200 Fr. (2.4pts, 4.1reb, 20% from 3)
* team leader in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 79.1
Pts allowed per game 75.1
Scoring margin +4.0
Field goal pct .453
FG% allowed .406
3-point FG pct .330
3pt FG% Defense .325
Free throw pct .704
Rebounds per game 43.0
Rebounding margin +6.9
Assists per game 15.3
Turnovers per game 14.1
Turnover margin -2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 5.7
Steals given up 8.6
Blocks per game 3.6
ATTENDANCE
Home games-Avg/Game 4-6381
Neutral site-Avg/Game - 3-2400
Key KenPom stats:
UCLA is #49 overall
They are #43 in offensive efficiency
Best stat is offensive rebounding %- 36.2%
Worst stat: #331 in steals allowed
2nd Worst: #272 in forcing turnovers
Analysis: Well, it's a battle of college basketball's historic heavyweights when Kentucky comes rolling into town to play UCLA at Pauley Pavilion, but the beginning of the season couldn't be any more different for UK and UCLA so far. The Cats come in having won their first 7 games, all by double digits. Whereas, UCLA enters the game at 4-3 with a home loss to Monmouth on the record already in addition to a beatdown from Kansas and a loss to a mediocre Wake Forest team. The fan support has waned badly this early season for the Bruins. They've played in front of an average crowd of 6,381 in the 13,800-seat Pauley Pavilion in their first 4 games. That will surely change tonight, though, with a marquee opponent in the house.
The key player for UCLA is the same as last year's key player. It's the coach's son, Bryce Alford, the 6-3 180lb point guard who makes the Bruins go. He initiates the offense and, if it's not working, he creates the offense. Some might argue he does too much of the latter and not enough of the former. In order for UCLA to win this game, Alford must have a good game shooting the ball. He leads the team in scoring and assists. His backcourt mate is 6-1 freshman Aaron Holiday who is a better shooter by percentage (45.5% from 3), scores 13 pts a game, and is also one of the team's best defenders, leading the team in steals on the season. The third guard, who plays the small forward spot, is 6-5 junior Isaac Hamilton. He's averaging 11.9pts per game and is second on the team in shot attempts. He does a bit of everything for the Bruins.
In the frontcourt, it begins with senior Tony Parker, the heralded recruit who has probably been labeled by many as a disappointment as compared to his hype out of high school. His numbers this season have been pretty good. He's averaging a double-double through 7 games, with 14.1 points, and 12.1 rebounds. At 6-9 260, he's a guy who is a space eater down low. He's not a high riser or a great shot blocker, but he can score with his back to the basket and he will get on the offensive glass for putbacks as well. He has 35 offensive rebounds on the season. Compare that to one of UK's best offensive rebounds, Marcus Lee who has 30 offensive rebounds on the season, and it's easy to see that keeping Parker off the boards is a tough task. Joining Parker in the frontcourt is the 7-foot sophomore center Thomas Welsh. Welsh is averaging 12 points per game and is second on the team in rebounding. He leads the team in fg% at 61.9% from the field. Many of those shots are stick backs and dunks. He also leads the team with 9 total blocks on the season or a little over 1 block per game.
From the bench, UCLA doesn't play many guys. There are 3 players who have played in pretty much every game this season. Prince Ali is the leading scorer off the bench at 7.1 points per game. He's a 6-3 guard who gives Alford and Holiday a breather here and there. He's only getting 14.9 minutes per game, but he can hit a three and handle the ball a bit if needed. The other 2 guys coming off the bench are 6-10 forwards with similar games. Jonah Bolden plays more. He's getting 17.8 minutes a game and scores 3.8 points. He does a decent job rebounding the ball, coming in at 3rd on the team in rebounding in limited minutes. He's not afraid to shoot a 3 if he's open, but he's only making 25%. Alex Olesinski is is a 6-10 200lb freshman and is playing only 12.3 minutes a game and not scoring much. His rebounding is pretty good also, coming in at 4.1 rebounds per game.
UCLA is mostly about those 5 starters, though. All 5 starters are playing 28 minutes or more and 3 of those starters are playing 32 minutes or more. They're all producing pretty well, though, with all 5 starters averaging 11.9 points or more per game. But when you look at the production of the bench, it becomes pretty clear that those starters must produce. They score 83.8% of the team's points. They also dish out 87.8% of the team's assists. So, bottom line, if those 5 guys don't produce, UCLA loses. UCLA doesn't block many shots and they don't get many steals. They score a bunch of points each game, but they also allow teams to score 75.1. For comparison, UK has only allowed 62.3 points per game.
The Bruins do a little bit of everything on defense. I think Coach Alford has realized this team is just not very quick and they have a hard time guarding a man. So, they try a bit of everything. They will likely run a lot of zone tonight if I were to guess. They may run some man to man, but I have a feeling they will abandon it quickly. But they don't force many turnovers regardless of what they run. They are #272 in forcing turnovers.
These Bruins can score, so we shouldn't be too freaked out when we struggle keeping Parker from getting his. They are putting up nearly 80 points a game. I think our Cats will give their guards a lot of trouble scoring, but I expect Parker to push us around a bit on the inside. The biggest problem for UCLA will be in stopping UK from scoring. It's not just UK's shooting that should worry UCLA, it's their ability to force turnovers, get out on the break, and drive and finish in traffic in the half court that could be their biggest concern.
I'm expecting a bit of a shootout tonight. Our big men better come to play. Poythress can guard Parker if he wants to badly enough, so I hope he's ready from the jump.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 UCLA 73
PAC12 Conference
Head Coach: Steve Alford 517-261, 54-26 at UCLA in 3rd season
Schedule (Record: 4-3)
11/13/15 Monmouth L ot 81-84
11/15/15 Cal Poly W 88-83
11/19/15 Pepperdine W 81-67
11/23/15 vs UNLV W 77-75*
11/24/15 vs Kansas L 73-92*
11/25/15 vs Wake Forest L 77-80*
11/29/15 Cal State Northridge W 77-45
*Maui Invitational Game
Game Info:
12/3/15 Kentucky at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, Pauley Pavilion, 9:00 pm EST (6:00 PAC)
Probable Starters (with stats through 7 games)
G #20 Alford, Bryce 6-3 180 Jr. (15.3pts*, 4.6reb, 5.6ast*, 28.1% from 3)
G #03 Holiday, Aaron 6-1 185 Fr. (13.0pts, 3.4reb, 3.14ast, 45.5% from 3*, 2.0 stls*)
G #10 Hamilton, Isaac 6-5 185 Jr. (11.9pts, 4.4reb, 3.14ast, 32.3% from 3)
F #23 Parker, Tony 6-9 260 Sr. (14.1pts, 12.1reb*, no 3pt threat)
C #40 Welsh, Thomas 7-0 245 So. (12.0pts, 6.1reb, no 3pt threat)
Bench
G #05 Ali, Prince 6-3 190 Fr. (7.1pts, 0.9reb, 41.7% from 3)
F #43 Bolden, Jonah 6-10 215 So. (3.8pts, 4.7reb, 25.0% from 3)
F #00 Olesinski, Alex 6-10 200 Fr. (2.4pts, 4.1reb, 20% from 3)
* team leader in this category
Team Stats
Points per game 79.1
Pts allowed per game 75.1
Scoring margin +4.0
Field goal pct .453
FG% allowed .406
3-point FG pct .330
3pt FG% Defense .325
Free throw pct .704
Rebounds per game 43.0
Rebounding margin +6.9
Assists per game 15.3
Turnovers per game 14.1
Turnover margin -2.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1
Steals per game 5.7
Steals given up 8.6
Blocks per game 3.6
ATTENDANCE
Home games-Avg/Game 4-6381
Neutral site-Avg/Game - 3-2400
Key KenPom stats:
UCLA is #49 overall
They are #43 in offensive efficiency
Best stat is offensive rebounding %- 36.2%
Worst stat: #331 in steals allowed
2nd Worst: #272 in forcing turnovers
Analysis: Well, it's a battle of college basketball's historic heavyweights when Kentucky comes rolling into town to play UCLA at Pauley Pavilion, but the beginning of the season couldn't be any more different for UK and UCLA so far. The Cats come in having won their first 7 games, all by double digits. Whereas, UCLA enters the game at 4-3 with a home loss to Monmouth on the record already in addition to a beatdown from Kansas and a loss to a mediocre Wake Forest team. The fan support has waned badly this early season for the Bruins. They've played in front of an average crowd of 6,381 in the 13,800-seat Pauley Pavilion in their first 4 games. That will surely change tonight, though, with a marquee opponent in the house.
The key player for UCLA is the same as last year's key player. It's the coach's son, Bryce Alford, the 6-3 180lb point guard who makes the Bruins go. He initiates the offense and, if it's not working, he creates the offense. Some might argue he does too much of the latter and not enough of the former. In order for UCLA to win this game, Alford must have a good game shooting the ball. He leads the team in scoring and assists. His backcourt mate is 6-1 freshman Aaron Holiday who is a better shooter by percentage (45.5% from 3), scores 13 pts a game, and is also one of the team's best defenders, leading the team in steals on the season. The third guard, who plays the small forward spot, is 6-5 junior Isaac Hamilton. He's averaging 11.9pts per game and is second on the team in shot attempts. He does a bit of everything for the Bruins.
In the frontcourt, it begins with senior Tony Parker, the heralded recruit who has probably been labeled by many as a disappointment as compared to his hype out of high school. His numbers this season have been pretty good. He's averaging a double-double through 7 games, with 14.1 points, and 12.1 rebounds. At 6-9 260, he's a guy who is a space eater down low. He's not a high riser or a great shot blocker, but he can score with his back to the basket and he will get on the offensive glass for putbacks as well. He has 35 offensive rebounds on the season. Compare that to one of UK's best offensive rebounds, Marcus Lee who has 30 offensive rebounds on the season, and it's easy to see that keeping Parker off the boards is a tough task. Joining Parker in the frontcourt is the 7-foot sophomore center Thomas Welsh. Welsh is averaging 12 points per game and is second on the team in rebounding. He leads the team in fg% at 61.9% from the field. Many of those shots are stick backs and dunks. He also leads the team with 9 total blocks on the season or a little over 1 block per game.
From the bench, UCLA doesn't play many guys. There are 3 players who have played in pretty much every game this season. Prince Ali is the leading scorer off the bench at 7.1 points per game. He's a 6-3 guard who gives Alford and Holiday a breather here and there. He's only getting 14.9 minutes per game, but he can hit a three and handle the ball a bit if needed. The other 2 guys coming off the bench are 6-10 forwards with similar games. Jonah Bolden plays more. He's getting 17.8 minutes a game and scores 3.8 points. He does a decent job rebounding the ball, coming in at 3rd on the team in rebounding in limited minutes. He's not afraid to shoot a 3 if he's open, but he's only making 25%. Alex Olesinski is is a 6-10 200lb freshman and is playing only 12.3 minutes a game and not scoring much. His rebounding is pretty good also, coming in at 4.1 rebounds per game.
UCLA is mostly about those 5 starters, though. All 5 starters are playing 28 minutes or more and 3 of those starters are playing 32 minutes or more. They're all producing pretty well, though, with all 5 starters averaging 11.9 points or more per game. But when you look at the production of the bench, it becomes pretty clear that those starters must produce. They score 83.8% of the team's points. They also dish out 87.8% of the team's assists. So, bottom line, if those 5 guys don't produce, UCLA loses. UCLA doesn't block many shots and they don't get many steals. They score a bunch of points each game, but they also allow teams to score 75.1. For comparison, UK has only allowed 62.3 points per game.
The Bruins do a little bit of everything on defense. I think Coach Alford has realized this team is just not very quick and they have a hard time guarding a man. So, they try a bit of everything. They will likely run a lot of zone tonight if I were to guess. They may run some man to man, but I have a feeling they will abandon it quickly. But they don't force many turnovers regardless of what they run. They are #272 in forcing turnovers.
These Bruins can score, so we shouldn't be too freaked out when we struggle keeping Parker from getting his. They are putting up nearly 80 points a game. I think our Cats will give their guards a lot of trouble scoring, but I expect Parker to push us around a bit on the inside. The biggest problem for UCLA will be in stopping UK from scoring. It's not just UK's shooting that should worry UCLA, it's their ability to force turnovers, get out on the break, and drive and finish in traffic in the half court that could be their biggest concern.
I'm expecting a bit of a shootout tonight. Our big men better come to play. Poythress can guard Parker if he wants to badly enough, so I hope he's ready from the jump.
Prediction: Kentucky 86 UCLA 73
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