SEC Bowl Projections

[615dawg]

BCS National Championship - Alabama (13-0, until someone beats them, they are on their way to the desert). I think they play Oregon for the national title.
Sugar - Auburn (11-1, I think they will keep working their way up and their only loss will be Alabama - they have Arkansas and LSU back to back, but both at home. at Ole Miss and at Kentucky are both winnable road games). Possible opponents: Boise State, TCU, Michigan.
Capital One - Florida (11-2, The Gators may very well only lose twice - both to Alabama. Timing is going to keep them out of the Sugar though) Possible Opponent: Michigan, Michigan State
Cotton - Arkansas (9-3, Probably looking at a 9-3 season ending against Texas in Dallas) Possible Opponent: Texas, Kansas State
Outback - LSU (8-4, 3, maybe 4 losses upcoming) Possible Opponent: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern
Gator - South Carolina (8-4, This is a team that could play their way up, but they have at least 3 more games that look like L's) Possible Opponent: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Penn State
Chick-fil-A - Mississippi State (7-5, if we can get to 7 wins, which means winning the rest of the games that we should win. For some reason, unless Arkansas or South Carolina just tanks, I think this is the best we can hope for this season) Possible Opponent: NC State
Music City - Georgia (might be 6-6, but I think they get here) Possible Opponent: Clemson, UNC
Liberty - Tennessee (6-6, probably most likely to drop off. But schedule is favorable to get to 7 wins. Could switch with Georgia) Probable Opponent: East Carolina
Birmingham - Kentucky ( a likely 7-5 season) Possible Opponents: South Florida, Louisville

 

[GloryDawg]

I'm not the one to point things out guy but if Alabama is in the BCS championship game then Auburn will not be in the Sugar Bowl. If the first place SEC team is in the National Championship then the Second place team goes which would be a Eastern Team. I could be wrong on the rule.

 

[Frances Drebin]

...if the SEC E champions have an ugly loss or a couple of losses, Auburn could go at 11-1.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Everyone should be able to guess which year.

 

[patdog]

Ifthe SECchampion goesto the national title game, that is the only automatic BCS bid the SEC has. Any other SEC team in the BCS would have to be an at-large team, and wouldn't necessarily go to the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would get first pick of the at-large teams since it lost its automatic bid to the SEC champion and could pick whoever they wanted to within the BCS rules. Of course, in practice they're usually going to pick the 2nd highest ranked SEC team in that situation, which could come from either division (not necessarily the SEC title game loser).

 

[615dawg]

Auburn would not be a representative of the SEC, they would be an at-large team. The Sugar would have at-large vs. at-large and would likely pick an SEC team with one of those picks. An 11-1 Auburn team that is in the top 8 would be more attractive than an 11-2 Florida team in the top 8, in my opinion. For Florida/Alabama to be the two teams, Florida would have to beat Alabama Saturday with Alabama returning the favor in Atlanta.

Hell, Auburn could beat Alabama and Alabama could be the Sugar Bowl rep at 11-1. I think Alabama is invincible and Auburn is good enough to get through their schedule. Arkansas/LSU at Auburn is coming up. If they get both of them, the Iron Bowl could be two 11-0 teams. The atmosphere in the state of Alabama would be unreal. I'm not sure the state of Mississippi could handle State and Ole Miss being 11-0 headed to the Egg Bowl. The state would just blow up.

 

[SLUdog]

Clemson almost beat them at their place. They will lose at least 2 games.

 

[patdog]

looking at their schedule I only see 1 game they won't be favored in.

 

[Frances Drebin]

...I wasn't predicting they would go 11-1. I was just answering his question.

But now that you mention it, who do they lose to? They're better than Arkansas. They're better than LSU. They could crap the bed against one of them, but then aGAIN, they crapped the bed against Clemson (a good team) and still came out on top.

 

[RebelBruiser]

Every time it has happened, that team was undefeated prior to losing the conference title game. Oklahoma 2003, Alabama 2008, and Florida 2009 are the only 3 teams to lose a conference title game and still get a BCS at large bid. Each was 12-0 before the title game loss.

If a team goes into the conference title game with 2 losses, or even 1, and they lose, they are likely out of the BCS at large picture.

It's actually easier to make a BCS bowl by losing your division and finishing with 1 or 2 losses than by winning your division and losing the conference title game.

If Auburn goes 11-1 or 10-2. Alabama goes 13-0. Florida goes 10-2 or maybe even 11-1 and loses to Alabama in the title game to go to 10-3 or 11-2, Auburn would likely get the BCS at large bid.

There were even years when a team would finish with the same record as a division opponent, lose the tiebreaker and still get the BCS at large over that particular team because that team lost the title game. 2007 Georgia did that over Tennessee. Both went 10-2. UT had beaten Georgia fairly handily as I recall. UT lost to LSU in the conference title game. Georgia went to the Sugar Bowl. Tennessee went to the Capital One.

 

[615dawg]

that Nebraska failed to win their division in the Big 12. Some upsets happened in the championship games and Nebraska ended up in the BCS national championship game without playing in the Big 12 championship game.

I would venture to say that a 10-2 team that did not win their division has a better shot at the BCS at-large team than a 11-1 team that loses their championship game.

As for Auburn, they are showing a drive to just win. They aren't dominant like Alabama, but they just look good. Their schedule is very, very favorable up until that trip to Tuscaloosa - we were their toughest road game.

 

[bullysleftnut]

that Nebraska failed to win their division in the Big 12. Some upsets happened in the championship games and Nebraska ended up in the BCS national championship game without playing in the Big 12 championship game.

I would venture to say that a 10-2 team that did not win their division has a better shot at the BCS at-large team than a 11-1 team that loses their championship game.

As for Auburn, they are showing a drive to just win. They aren't dominant like Alabama, but they just look good. Their schedule is very, very favorable up until that trip to Tuscaloosa - we were their toughest road game.

I thought that was Oklahoma that backed into the title game. The BCS rules were changed after that year to exclude anyone who didn't play and win their conference's championship game.

 

[TnDawg76]

n/m

 

[RebelBruiser]

that Nebraska failed to win their division in the Big 12. Some upsets happened in the championship games and Nebraska ended up in the BCS national championship game without playing in the Big 12 championship game.

I would venture to say that a 10-2 team that did not win their division has a better shot at the BCS at-large team than a 11-1 team that loses their championship game.

As for Auburn, they are showing a drive to just win. They aren't dominant like Alabama, but they just look good. Their schedule is very, very favorable up until that trip to Tuscaloosa - we were their toughest road game.

I thought that was Oklahoma that backed into the title game. The BCS rules were changed after that year to exclude anyone who didn't play and win their conference's championship game.

Both teams backed into title games. Nebraska got throttled 62-36 by Colorado in their last regular season game. Colorado went on to win the Big 12 title. Colorado was 10-2 with a non-conference loss and one conference loss. Nebraska was 10-1 with the loss to Colorado.

Nebraska was ranked No. 4 in the polls. Miami was No. 1. Oregon was No. 2 and Colorado was No. 3. Oregon and Colorado faced off in the Rose Bowl. Miami played Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl for the national title. Despite the low poll ranking, Nebraska's computer ranking bumped them to the title game over 2 teams that were ahead of them and quite frankly that were better than them.

Miami won the title game easily.

In 2003, Oklahoma went 12-0 but lost to Kansas State 35-7. They had such a commanding lead in the BCS standings though that they maintained their No. 1 overall BCS ranking while 1 loss LSU and 1 loss USC failed to catch them. LSU obviously was No. 2 and went on to beat Oklahoma in the national title game.

Nebraska is a good example of how it is easier to get a BCS bid by not making your conference title game than it is to make it to the title game and lose. Oklahoma is a big time outlier in how they got to the title game that year.

 

[RebelBruiser]

And you weren't undefeated before losing the title game, which is why you had no shot at a BCS at large.

Florida, had 2 losses that year, which is why they were a lay up to get an at large over a 3 loss team that had just lost the conference title game.

In 1999, UT went to a BCS game over Florida who beat them in the East but lost the SEC title game to Alabama.

In 2001, Florida returned the favor going to a BCS game over UT who had beat them out in the East but lost the title game to LSU.

In 2006, LSU went to the BCS as an at large after Arkansas lost to Florida in the title game.

In 2007, as I said before Georgia went to the BCS after UT lost to LSU in the title game.

2008 and 2009 are the only exceptions where the loser went to a BCS game. That's 5 times that a team from the SEC has received an at large after not winning their division and only twice that a team has received an at large after winning their division and losing the title game. Both times that team was 12-1 after losing the title game.

 

[Coach34]

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