SEC gets two teams in the playoff if:

[Dogariffic]

The only way I see the SEC with two teams in the playoffs is if:
Mississippi State wins out and gets to the championship game and then
loses to a two loss Georgia team.
The committee is going to give conference champions a big bump and it will push Georgia up.
They will also have a hard time keeping a one loss Mississippi State team with wins over 5 top ten teams out of the playoffs even if we get to the SEC championship game but do not win the league championship.
All other angles seem to come up with only one SEC team as I don't think any wo loss team gets in unless it is a two loss team winning the SEC championship.
Also I believe Mississippi State has to win out and go undefeated to get in the four team playoff. If we lose a game this late in the season.....even to a top 5 Alabama or a top 10 Ole Miss I think it drops us out of the top four.....
That said I believe a one loss Mississippi State Team....if we lose to Alabama...gets to the SEC championship game with one loss and can get to the final four by beating Georgia, but Auburn has to beat Alabama if we lose to bama.
Keep winning Dogs!!!

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Georgia has no chance. Zero.

 

[AHSDawg]

ONLY way SEC gets 2 teams in is UA beats us Saturday in a great, close game. Then, both teams win out handily. That is the only way it happens. (outside of tons of upsets).

This is why I wish LSU would have beaten UA on Saturday. It would have left us as the only true bell cow for the SEC and thus would have possibly bought us some favors in the game Saturday. Now, we will have to certainly take care of business on our own so our fate is ours alone.

 

[dogfan96]

Sparty losing to Urb was HUGE...

Mich St actually had some respect nationally before that game. Nobody else in the Big 10 has a chance. The only way UGA gets in is if they win out, win the SEC title and a LOT of teams have 2 losses. I think we can get in at 11-1 (if Bama wins out and is the 1-loss SEC champ) IF FSU loses a game somewhere. The ACC conference champ will get no respect with 1 loss. Same as the Big 10. Even if we lose in the SEC title game, we should still get in at 12-1 to me. But yeah, let's just win the SEC and eliminate all doubt.

 

[patdog]

Agree on both points AHS. Only way the SEC gets 2 in the playoff is if us and Bama both wind up with 1 loss. UGA has no shot with 2 bad losses to USC & UF. Maybe a very slim chance a 2-loss Auburn or Mississippi could sneak in at #4 if they win out convincingly and get some help from other conferences. We just need to win Saturday. Do that, and we're in the playoff guaranteed unless we lose twice.

 

[AHSDawg]

Yep, our victory Saturday earns us a 1 game leeway. But, that is all and being an MSU fan, I do not even want to leave that in someone else's hands. Let's spank that *** Saturday and earn all of the respect we haven't gotten for the past 70 years.

 

[muddawgs]

The only way I see the SEC with two teams in the playoffs is if:
Mississippi State wins out and gets to the championship game and then
loses to a two loss Georgia team.
The committee is going to give conference champions a big bump and it will push Georgia up.
They will also have a hard time keeping a one loss Mississippi State team with wins over 5 top ten teams out of the playoffs even if we get to the SEC championship game but do not win the league championship.
All other angles seem to come up with only one SEC team as I don't think any wo loss team gets in unless it is a two loss team winning the SEC championship.
Also I believe Mississippi State has to win out and go undefeated to get in the four team playoff. If we lose a game this late in the season.....even to a top 5 Alabama or a top 10 Ole Miss I think it drops us out of the top four.....
That said I believe a one loss Mississippi State Team....if we lose to Alabama...gets to the SEC championship game with one loss and can get to the final four by beating Georgia, but Auburn has to beat Alabama if we lose to bama.
Keep winning Dogs!!!

UGA has 2 bad losses. The committee is looking at the body of work and that alone will keep UGA out. Also UGA doesn't even lead the east. Missouri does and all their remaining games are winnable. Plus, a 2 loss Bama team will trump a 2 loss UGA team.

 

[bulldogbaja]

I disagree with this line of thinking. i don't think the committee will have any problem putting a two-loss SECW team in the playoff. They obviously recognize the insane strength of this division. They have had MSU, Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss all in the top 4 at some point so far. If those four teams all beat each other- why would you penalize them for that?

Auburn has a "bad" loss to aTm, and a loss to the best team in the country
Ole Miss will finish with 3-4 losses, as we all know
Alabama will finish with at least two, and likely a third to Auburn, but all three of those are against really good teams.
Honestly, I think the winner of the Iron Bowl makes it in at 10-2 (plus MSU at 13-0). Somebody archive this...

 

[BulldogBlitz]

thus would have possibly bought us some favors in the game Saturday.

I cannot imagine a time ever where the emporer would stand up in BDS and put the thumbs down causing a bama loss. /Eyore out.

 

[dogfan96]

No way...

unless a lot of other teams lose 2 games.. the SEC champ is a lock (if it's a West team)... 1-loss Oregon P12 Champ is a lock. FSU is a lock if they go undefeated, 1-loss TCU is probably a lock too... now if FSU loses a game, that opens the door for us to get in at 11-1 or 12-1 (loss in the SECCG.. I think we should get in anyway in that scenario. Going undefeated in the SEC West is as good as a championship in any other conference)

 

[KurtRambis4]

The playoff selection "committee"

has proven, with their latest rankings, that they are going to do whatever is in their powers to prevent 2 SEC teams from getting in. The powers that be will not allow it. It's not about the 4 best teams. It's about the 4 best teams that give every conference a "fair shake."

 

[Dawgzilla]

That's the conclusion you draw? The same committee that ranked three SEC team in the Top 4 in their first poll, is now "proving" that there is no way they will put two SEC teams in the final four? You can argue with whether Alabama deserves to be #5 or #4, but you can't just conclude that they ranked Alabama where they were because they are in the SEC. Its a close call. There's still a lot of games to be played, but so far I have a lot of faith that the Committee is making impartial decisions without any agenda.

 

[bulldogbaja]

They seem to place a whole lot of emphasis on strength of schedule ("resume"), almost more than overall record. A two-loss Alabama team who beat Auburn, LSU, aTm has a better body of work than a one-loss TCU team with no real equivalent wins. As has been observed, they seem to care more about who you beat than who you lost to.
I also don't think that Oregon, FSU, and TCU will all win out. Somebody will slip up.

 

[Lou3000]

I don't think 2 SEC teams get in. I see it breaking down like this.

1) We win out and regardless of the SEC Championship outcome, we go. We'll still have a far better resume with an SEC Championship loss than a 2 loss Georgia (and those 2 losses are bad, Florida and @USC).

2) We lose to Bama and Ole Miss, Bama loses to Auburn, and a 2 loss Auburn goes to the Championship game. Winner of the SEC Championship gets a spot in the Playoffs.

3) We lose to either Bama or Ole Miss and Bama loses to Auburn. We win the SEC Championship.

In all my scenarios, one SEC team goes. There'd have to be absolute chaos for the outlook to drastically change (Baylor falls to KState, Oregon loses the Pac 12 Championship to ASU, TCU drops a gimme, etc).

 

[00Dawg]

I'd say it's even more specific than that. At the moment it appears to be about how many Top 25 teams you beat. If we play Bama close, finish 11-1, and have TAMU still in the Top 25 to point to 4 Top 25 wins, they're going to have a hard time sticking to that line and keeping us out. In my mind the wild card is still that whole "championships" thing. They could easily factor that in now through factoring in who is leading a conference, but we don't know if they're doing that or not.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

One thing that you seem to be overlooking is that the committee had Ole Miss in the top 4 the week after they lost to LSU. The committee seems to not care as much for WHEN your losses game as they care for WHO you lost too (and WHO you've beaten).

 

[VegasDawg13]

Missouri is more likely to lose out than win out.

 

[bulldogbaja]

There'd have to be absolute chaos for the outlook to drastically change (Baylor falls to KState, Oregon loses the Pac 12 Championship to ASU, TCU drops a gimme, etc).

What makes you think that any of these things are unlikely?

 

[Lou3000]

Not unlikely, but if you consider all open possibilities with 3 or 4 games left on most schedules, there is an endless number of outcomes. The Pac 12 may play itself out of the playoffs if ASU loses to Arizona but beats Oregon. I think TCU is probably a lock at this point, but Florida State is not with big games against Miami and Florida upcoming.

Considering all outcomes, you could end up with 1. TCU (wins out 10-1) 2. Georgia (wins SEC Championship with all other SEC teams have 2 losses) 3. Nebraska (wins B1G) 4. UCLA (somehow ends up in Pac12 Championship and beats Oregon)

 

[Dogariffic]

Yes Muddawgs Missouri leads the East but

Georgia is the one ranked 16 or so. Missouri is not even ranked today and I believe Georgia represents the East in the SEC Championship. But I suppose for this exercise either Missouri or Georgia fit as representing the east.

That said, the committee has said they will value conference championships in their rankings....now no one knows how much this value is, but I think they will use it as a big factor to try to spread out the teams included in the four team playoff among more than one conference. Thus the rational that the only way we get two SEC teams in is if Georgia....the highest ranked East team..... wins the SEC Conference Championship game over a previously undefeated Mississippi State. I think they have a hard time keeping us out with one loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship and they will feel compelled to take Georgia due to the undefined Conference Championship rule. They may not like it but I think they would take both teams.

Now don't get me wrong....I could care less about Georgia.....I just think this is the only way the SEC gets in two teams and thus SLIVE needs to really pull for us to win out so he gets two SEC teams in the final four his last year.

And again if we have one loss and don't represent the west....(over Alabama) in the SEC Championship game I don't think we make it.....They take a one loss Alabama over us in a heart beat.

And a really wild card is this....Say we make the SEC Championship undefeated and play a two loss Georgia team ranked in the top 10 by then and Georgia wins. Then they decide to only take one SEC team....who goes us or Georgia....How much does a Conference championship then really mean? Could get interesting!

But if we just win out we are in and that is all that I really care about.

 

[AHSDawg]

For the amount of money and exposure 2 teams mean over 1

AND if you aren't certain that MSU could handle the spotlight whereas Bama is the other team.... yeah, I can certainly envision bad things happening...

 

[KurtRambis4]

Well they really

had no choice, at that time.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

TCU should be in over Bama if the season ended today. They have done more to prove that they're a top 4 team. By the same token, if Bama wins out and State finishes 11-1, we will both have done more to prove that we're a top 4 team than TCU. Nothing that the committee has said or done gives me any reason to think 11-1 MSU doesn't get in over 11-1 TCU/Baylor. They seem to be weighing the quality of your loss and of your best wins very heavy, and that bodes well for us.

 

[Dawgzilla]

So if they have no choice, then they will put 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. So, if we lose to Bama, we just need TCU, Baylor, ASU and maybe OSU to drop another game, and leave them no choice!

 

[KurtRambis4]

The whole idea

of the playoff committee sprung from the commissioners of other conferences feeling jilted by the SEC. You can bet your sweet *** they'll do everything in their power to prevent two from getting in. If you don't believe that, then there's nothing more to discuss.

 

[NewHampshireMafia]

Selection committee didn't prove anything with the latest rankings. The Oregon ranking was the most interesting. Also, Jeff Long saying that they only use head to head as some final tie breaker was interesting.

What'll be interesting to see is how much weight they place on "championships won." It's listed a selection criterion, and we're not going to know that until the last week. I view that as a way for them to pick people from different conferences, even though they're claiming to not view teams in terms of conferences. If MSU loses to Bama, and other teams start losing to where MSU and Bama are the only 1 loss teams in the country, I want to see whether the committee values winning a conference championship over a better record with better SOS.

If you made a conference of the NFC west and south and they played each other all year, they all might have 3 losses, but it'd be stupid to think that Ohio State was better. There's just a lot of potential for frustration if we lose to Bama and win out.