Good in depth break down, even if it plays out like you have predicted, the race is still tight as a drum. That is, for everything but the top spot, Florida would seem to be on cruise control.
If UK can win the series against Missouri, and win the series in Knoxville next weekend, they would be at 12-12, with 2 series to go. I believe if the Cats could get to 16-14 in final SEC play, they will host a regional.
It is amazingly tight among pretty much every team. The good thing for UK is that we have a somewhat favorable end of the year. Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Miss. State, and Missouri are all beatable teams. The road games won't be easy, but they are still games we can take 2 of 3 in each series. So, we have a chance to distance ourselves from 3 of those teams by taking 2 of 3 against each of them. You then have a lot of those teams with similar schedules who could wrestle for wins/losses back and forth.
If it plays out like I said then even the 12-9 teams won't have an easy time pulling away from the next group.
Vanderbilt has to play at Tennessee and at Auburn. Vandy has somewhat struggled some on the road and could get some big wins against the likes of South Carolina this weekend, but they might also stall out against Auburn and Tennessee. So, they might only get 3-4 more wins after this weekend and finish 16-14.
Arkansas has it easy this weekend, but they then face TAMU, Georgia, and and LSU, with only the TAMU series being at home. Again, Arkansas seemingly struggled on the road and just got swept by Miss. State on the road, so they might have a huge weekend this weekend and then somewhat flame out in at least 2 of the last three, if not all three. So, I could also see them finishing 16-14.
Ole Miss probably has the most favorable schedule left and I believe they finish the year with the second best record. They face USC, Auburn, and Alabama after this weekend. The first and last of those are on the road. Ole Miss is kind of up and down at times, but I think they at least win 2 from Bama and Auburn and will get at least 1 from USC, if not more. So, they probably finish 17-13.
Georgia doesn't have it very easy as they get Florida in the second to last weekend and they also have to go to Missouri. I imagine that they lose both of those series. I think they can take Arkansas at home, but that one could go either way. Florida has lost just 1 home game (oddly enough it was a loss by Singer), in SEC play. So, they could conceivably sweep Georgia. Still, presuming they get at least 1 win down in Florida, then they may also just get 4 more wins after this weekend and also finish 16-14.
If it played out like this then they'd have to look at the record each team has against Florida. Both UK and Arkansas beat Florida once. Vanderbilt lost all 3 and Georgia, we're predicting, one win. So, Vanderbilt would be knocked out and would be last of the four. I think, and I could be wrong, but then they would look at the win percentage of the UGA/UK/Arky against one another. Arkansas would be 4-2, Kentucky would be 2-4, and Georgia would be 3-3. So, that would put Arky in 3rd, Georgia in 4th, and UK in 5th. That would hurt. So, ideally UF sweeps Georgia and we might be able to finish top 4, and get a bye.
Of course, this is all major major speculation.