Sec upsets; week 9 edition

Confucius Say

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Apr 25, 2014
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Lines are as of Wednesday morning. Who you got covering, winning outright?

Uab + 23.5 @ ark
vandy + 21.5 @ mizzou
lsu + 4 vs om
usce + 18 @ auburn
tenn + 18 vs bama
ky + 14 vs msu
 

RebelBruiser

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Aug 21, 2007
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No upsets this week for me. I think Vandy may cover, and I'll go with a South Carolina cover as well. In the others, the favorites all cover, and I think most of them will be comfortable covers.
 

jethreauxdawg

Heisman
Dec 20, 2010
10,813
14,208
113
I think Mississippi covers easily. Not sure LSU will score. They couldn't move the ball on us until our third string played.
 

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,433
24,213
113
Guys, I hate to break it to you, but LSU isn't beating OM.

Ark covers
Vandy
OM
Auburn
Bama
MSU
 

jb1020

Freshman
Jun 7, 2009
1,866
87
48
Yeah, Horrible Bo can show up and OM will still scored enough to beat LSU

assuming LSU doesnt score 21 defensive points I think OM wins pretty easy.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,026
26,615
113
No straight up upsets this weekend for the SEC. Vandy and/or Tennessee may cover.
 
Jan 22, 2009
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LSU still has the 4th ranked pass def & 8th in scoring def. Their running game has improved greatly over the last few weeks. If LSU gets the ground game going between the tackles & Bad Bo shows up this could get interesting. There is a reasons the line is where it is.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,026
26,615
113
There is a reasons the line is where it is.
Yeah, to get half the money on each side of the bet. Doesn't mean the betting public knows jack about the 2 teams playing. People are just assuming LSU is "back" after that beatdown of Kentucky. But they're still 1-dimensional on offense and will get shut down cold by Mississippi's defense. Mississippi won't score a lot on them, but they won't have to to win.
 

ShrubDog

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Apr 13, 2008
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OM : PF 35.4 PA 10.5
LSU: PF 35.6 PA 16.9

Line is spot on

Some can argue that OM is 1 dimensional on Offense also. Give me more than a FG I will take it.
 
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msstate7

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Nov 27, 2008
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Ark covers
Missouri covers
Lsu covers
Auburn covers
Tenn covers
MSU covers

Lsu only upset
 

LawDawg97

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Sep 7, 2012
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Yep. Last year a #6 LSU walked into VHS and lost to a 3-3 UM team.

LSU still has the 4th ranked pass def & 8th in scoring def. Their running game has improved greatly over the last few weeks. If LSU gets the ground game going between the tackles & Bad Bo shows up this could get interesting. There is a reasons the line is where it is.

I understand Mississippi is likely to win, but I don't know why so many are writing this off as an automatic UM win looking at how they've played each other over the years.
 

RebelBruiser

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Aug 21, 2007
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Yeah, to get half the money on each side of the bet. Doesn't mean the betting public knows jack about the 2 teams playing. People are just assuming LSU is "back" after that beatdown of Kentucky. But they're still 1-dimensional on offense and will get shut down cold by Mississippi's defense. Mississippi won't score a lot on them, but they won't have to to win.

And the part I highlighted is what Bo and Freeze both have figured out, which is why Bo doesn't have a turnover in SEC play so far. He knows he just needs a few TDs when the opportunities are there, and we get a W. Freeze has been more conservative with his play calls too for that reason. Bo tends to make fewer crippling mistakes now that he's come to that realization, and like I said, for LSU to have a shot to win, by my estimation, they'll need at least 14 points directly attributed to the defense and/or special teams.
 

RebelBruiser

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Aug 21, 2007
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How can he win Heisman with dinks and bubbles?

1) We aren't throwing many of those this year. The majority of our passing game is down field. He's just not been forcing things often like he's done in the past when he felt like he needed to make more happen.

2) We clearly aren't playing to try to inflate his stats, nor do we need to. Both coach and QB know that they can lean on the defense pretty heavily to win games, so why put it on Bo's shoulders unnecessarily? Most teams we face simply aren't going to score much of anything if they're forced to drive the field. It's the Saban/Bama philosophy. Take what's there when it's there. If it isn't there, punt the ball and let your defense work.

I'll say this, if we force LSU to drive more than half the field the entire game, no possessions starting on our end of the field, I'll be shocked if they end up with more than 10 points.
 

VegasDawg13

Freshman
Jun 11, 2007
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I think you're wrong about which side is which on this game. I think the public will see the #3 team in the country giving only 3.5 points and will jump on it heavily, which would mean the oddsmakers are expecting (or are already seeing) sharp money to come in on LSU.
 
Jan 22, 2009
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Yeah, to get half the money on each side of the bet. Doesn't mean the betting public knows jack about the 2 teams playing. People are just assuming LSU is "back" after that beatdown of Kentucky. But they're still 1-dimensional on offense and will get shut down cold by Mississippi's defense. Mississippi won't score a lot on them, but they won't have to to win.

You are correct but the betting public doesn't set the starting line. Vegas doesn't pick winners & losers they set it to attract bets, but the starting line that they set is more often than not a good gauge on whether the game will be close or not. If Vegas thought this was a cupcake for Mississippi you would've seen a 14 point spread.

Your attempted "help" is appreciated though.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,026
26,615
113
We'll see how close it was Saturday night. Vegas doesn't set the initial line based on how they think the game will go, they set it based on how they project the bets to be made. They couldn't care less if they expect Mississippi to win by 10 or LSU to win by 10. If they project a line of 3 will get the bets 50-50, the line will be 3.
 

BulldogBlitz

Heisman
Dec 11, 2008
16,262
20,517
113
if ls-who doesn't wipe the field with tsun, an investigation should be launched with 10 permanently placed investigators in the ox.

i hope the hat is preparing his film guy for a very busy monday morning shipping items off to the league office.
 

ShrubDog

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Apr 13, 2008
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They should care if they expect either team to win by 10 when the line is at 3. That effects the Money Line. And the public is all over OM vs the spread right now and LSU on the money Line.

Per the PF and PA there is a 6.2 difference. PF: LSU +.2 PA: OM -6.4 Give LSU 3 points for homefield and theres your 3-4 pt spread. Thats one way to come up with the number.
 

bulldogbaja

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Dec 18, 2007
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I admit that it's a bad matchup for LSU, but I'm still hopeful the Tigahs can pull it out.
OM's defense is not the most talented in the SEC (bracing for the backlash here) but they might be the best coached. Their constant movement and odd looks don't let the offense get a read before the ball is snapped. They prey on inexperienced or slow game-speed QBs. Blake Sims, TNs QB, even Kenny Hill (still learning life as a starting QB). LSU fits that description perfectly, no matter which QB starts. OM will often have 8 guys standing on the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped, but the LBs will immediately sprint back into coverage or occasionally come on the blitz. They can get away with this bc of their speed on defense; they can make up the difference quickly after the ball is snapped. The disadvantage to this scheme is that, at the instant the ball is snapped, 3 or more of their players are out of position. The right offense, with more quick passes or really good zone blocking, can make them pay. I'm hoping that LSU comes out and is able to execute this, but so far, they appear to be the least likely team in the SEC to do so. That said, Death Valley will be jacked up. My heart says LSU upsets, but my head says OM covers.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,026
26,615
113
PF and PA in SEC games tells a very different, and much more relevant, story. UM is 33.2-10.1, LSU is 26.8-26.2.
 

ShrubDog

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Apr 13, 2008
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If you compare the PF and PA for our game and say the UT/Bam game that is how the spreads are derived. Do the math and you will see. Thats all Im saying is how the come up with the spread.

If they made lines based on just the SEC games OM would be -21. Thats not how it works. OM should destroy them by those numbers. Setting it at -3 will not get even action. So its a gamble.

Then all the other intangibles are up to the trends and touts.
 
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RebelBruiser

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Aug 21, 2007
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Out of curiosity, do you have some statistical measure to back this up?

Laquon Treadwell was our primary slot/screen receiver last year. He had a YPC of 8.4. Adeboyjo and Core are splitting that role this year. Their YPC numbers are 14.2 and 15.7 respectively.

Also, our top 6 pass catchers this year all average over 13 YPC. Last year, 3 of our Top 6 receivers were averaging less than 13 YPC. In both years, Jaylen Walton, our top receiving back out of the backfield, is included in those Top 6 numbers. His average is up over 2 YPC from last year, because he's catching more wheel routes this year than screens or dump offs.

Bo's average yards/completion are up right at 2 yards as well. He's at 13.9 this year, and he was at 11.8 last year.

Those are the stats, but most of my validation for the statement just comes simply from watching us. We haven't thrown the bubble screen much at all this year. Part of that is because Treadwell was such a good runner in the slot last year that it was a fairly successful play for us, but the other part of that is that Bo's arm is fully healthy, and he's throwing down field much better and with a lot of accuracy this year. Another factor could be that we aren't running the hurry up much this year. The bubble screen we use is largely an extension of the run game in a lot of our hurry up combination plays, but since we haven't been running hurry up, we've been running fewer combination plays and thus fewer bubble screen type routes. We throw a lot more slants, posts, fades, fade stops, and seam routes this year than we did last year.

Last year, our offense was easy to stop by the end of the year, because we were so weak on the interior OL and couldn't get any between the tackles run game going. Plus, the combination of losing Engram and Bo losing his arm strength severely limited our down field passing game. Therefore, you could scheme us just by playing press coverage and bringing your safeties up to play the outside run or the screen passing game.

This year, we still don't run consistently between the tackles, though we've managed just enough to keep teams honest, but the real key has been that we've been able to make teams pay when they've committed to stopping the run. When we've had one on ones or had limited safety help, we've been able to hit receivers for big gains. We won't sustain many 15-16 play drives with 5-6 yard plays, but we have consistently hit chunk plays, and that's why our offense has been successful.

I've noticed a pattern lately where it seems we're often feeling out a defense early. Then, based on what the coaching staff sees from the looks the defense gives, we find a way to hit a team in the passing game, and we start putting points on the board. I'll bet we see the same Saturday night, unless LSU comes out in predictable looks that we're well-prepared to attack, in which case we'll get off to a faster start.
 
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Aug 22, 2012
2,761
1
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You do realize...

...all the stats you just spouted are drivel. Yards after catch is where you can tell if you are throwing downfield or not.

I don't doubt you if you say Ole Miss is using fewer bubble screens, but YPC isn't the stat to prove it.
 

oxfordrebel22

Sophomore
Oct 31, 2013
1,928
134
63
With allude respect to Vegas..

Ole Miss is 7-0 against the spread this year. If I'm not mistaken, State is 6-0 against the spread. Vegas often has trouble catching up to teams like both of us. They get very stubborn. They will "accept the risk" when the lines get lopsided and Ole Miss and State have made the public (myself included) a lot of money.

I think that continues Saturday night. I think State wins by 21+ and I think the Ole Miss defense smothers LSU and the offense does enough for us to win by 10+, comfortably. I've tried to convince myself that both teams are overrated, but we aren't. There are two damn good football teams in Mississippi this year.
 

oxfordrebel22

Sophomore
Oct 31, 2013
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That subject was supposed to say with all due* respect. That's what I get for typing drunk on my ipad.
 

Crazy Cotton

All-Conference
Aug 26, 2012
3,649
1,407
113
ARK covers
Vandy covers
LSU wins outright
Auburn covers
Bama Covers
MSU covers


Lines are as of Wednesday morning. Who you got covering, winning outright?

Uab + 23.5 @ ark
vandy + 21.5 @ mizzou
lsu + 4 vs om
usce + 18 @ auburn
tenn + 18 vs bama
ky + 14 vs msu
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,026
26,615
113
I don't think we covered in the UAB game. But your point is still good. Neither MSU or UM has gotten the respect from Vegas we deserve. And I don't think either of us are again this weekend. I'll be surprised if we don't both cover the spread +10.
 

gymdawg.sixpack

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Aug 26, 2012
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Force tsun to stop the run by dropping a safety and adding a lb to jam the middle and yoy can open holes, easy ones across the middle. If lsu does this, controls the clock, and doesnt get too creative they win. I dont see bo being able to keep his composure when their offense is limited to fewer possessions.
Lsu 31 tsun 16
 

DerHntr

All-Conference
Sep 18, 2007
15,830
2,787
113
I don't think we covered in the UAB game. But your point is still good. Neither MSU or UM has gotten the respect from Vegas we deserve. And I don't think either of us are again this weekend. I'll be surprised if we don't both cover the spread +10.

Respect? You just stated multiple that it had nothing to do with who they thought would win or by how much and only had to do with getting Joe Blow Public to bet 50/50.

"Vegas doesn't set the initial line based on how they think the game will go, they set it based on how they project the bets to be made. They couldn't care less if they expect Mississippi to win by 10 or LSU to win by 10. If they project a line of 3 will get the bets 50-50, the line will be 3."