updated forecast discussion on NOAA looks bad.
A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS
OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 600-900
M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600
M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER.
INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000
J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD
AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME
CAPPING
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PUSHING 80
KTS AND COULD GET
HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL
JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW
HRS.
EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE
WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT
TORNADO
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)
ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND STORMS
SHOULD
AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN`T STRESS ENOUGH HOW
DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF
STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL
HI-RES GUID
SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.
TIMING WILL BE FROM NOON TO 7 PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OFF STORM
INITIATION...
MESOCYCLONE MATURITY...AND STORM
PROPAGATION...THE AREA
AT GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES LOOKS TO EXIST WITHIN A
ZONE FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL AND POINTS E/N OF THAT
LINE. AREAS OUTSIDE THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END
SVR
STORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF ALL
PARAMETERS.
