Yes, we're a long shot. We'll likely have to pull a sweep this weekend to have a shot, and then we'd need MSU and Auburn to both do us a favor and win at least 1 game over LSU and Bama. If we do that, we'll have a shot at earning at least a share of the SEC title, which would be another banner despite losing the tiebreaker to LSU, since we never end up on the right side of those things.
I think the odds of you taking more than 1 from LSU are pretty slim, and I think the odds of us sweeping in Fayetteville are pretty slim as well. Having each of those things happen and having Auburn take at least 1 from Bama are even longer odds, so our chances at an outright, non-split, title where we get the 1 seed are slim to none.
All that said, I was a little surprised at how little losing 2 of 3 this weekend affected our RPI. I think we came into the weekend at No. 17 in the RPI. We played a team at home that was pretty low in the RPI. We lost 2, and we've dropped at worst 1 spot. We dropped 1 spot last week after sweeping Auburn, so I can officially say that I don't get it. I know how the formula works, but those things still don't make sense.