So how many wins do we need for the SEC baseball tourney?

[goldenwavedawg]

Historically speaking the eighth place team :
2010 14 wins
2009 12 wins
2008 15 wins
2007 13 wins
2006 13 wins
2005 13 wins
2004 14 wins
2003 14 wins
2002 14 wins
2001 15 wins
2000 12 wins
1999 13 wins
1998 13 wins
1997 14 wins
1996 14 wins

1998 was the first year of the current format. 1996 & 1997 were same qualifications to get to Hoover but with single elimination play in day for lower seeds.

So the results:
15 and above - you're in
14 - you're in 85% of the time
13 - gonna be a nail biter the last weekend
12 - almost certainly free during the tourney to do other things
Below 12 - it ain't happening

 

[Todd4State]

nm

 

[Coach34]

we got a decent shot at that

 

[57stratdawg]

Is there anyway you can show a list of # of wins the 9th place team had?

 

[saltslugs]

It doesn't really portray how many wins you need to get in, just how many a team had to get in. For instance, you say that 14 wins gets in 85% of the time, but we don't really know that. Perhaps the 15 win teams that got in could have still gained entry with 14 or fewer wins.

 

[goldenwavedawg]

Let's tweak it a bit. Still not perfect but I think closer.

Minimum wins needed to have finished 8th alone or in a tiebreaker where all teams tied for 8th and above make it and are just sorting out seeding.

2010 14
2009 13
2008 15
2007 14
2006 14
2005 14
2004 14
2003 14
2002 15
2001 15
2000 12
1999 14
1998 13
1997 14
1996 14

Based of 15 years results, if you win :
15 or more - 100% likelihood you go to Hoover
14 - 80% likelihood you go to Hoover
13 - 20% likelihood you go to Hoover
12 - 7% likelihood you go to Hoover
11 or less - 0% likelihood you go to Hoover

My take home point is 11 more SEC wins and I need reservations in Hoover.

 

[saltslugs]

Getting that 14th win seems very important. I can't believe what a huge gap that is; 80% vs 20%.<div>
</div><div>Thanks for doing that.</div>