Pretty much my thoughts.
But I think 100 career wins is a great goal/jumping off point for elite guys. Risk management is paramount when the NCAAS are the bench test.
The international scene is the certificate being chased now.
I think NIL potential along with being healthy for int'l competition are other important reasons why total career bouts are being decreased, but as Old Number Nine shows, the trend started before NIL began but seems to have accelerated with NIL in place.
This stat is wild. I'm using PSU guys because I don't have yours handy.
DT and Ed Ruth graduated in 2014 with 137 and 139 matches wrestled, respectively. Cael's first graduating group with him all years.
Bo Nickal and Jason Nolf graduated in 2019 with 123 and 120 matches, respectively.
Aaron Brooks and Carter Starocci graduated(4 years) in 2024 with 92 and 82 matches, respectively. Brooks was over five seasons.
So in a 10 year time period in five year increments, you can see the trendline accelerating as the new graduates wrestled on average 10-12 less bouts per year than 10 years ago. That's a massive change in a ten year period without any serious injury keeping any of them out of the lineups for a long period. Obviously it's purposeful but what the exact reasons for it are is up for discussion.
For comparison, Cael had wrestled 159 times when he graduated in 2002. John Smith had 163 when he graduated in 1988. Tom Brands had 167 in 1991.