So the SEC West Championship comes down to this???
- Thread starter snoopdog
- Start date
according to lou holtz.... 'alabama isth headth andth sthoulders above everyone elsthe'
every week a little more gets sorted out.
every week a little more gets sorted out.
LSU may very well beat Alabama, but that has no bearing on whether or not Alabama can beat us. Win or lose in Baton Rouge, Alabama will be ready for us in Tuscaloosa. Count on that. I'm not counting any game (including UT Martin, Vandy) as a shoe in. That's how upsets happen. We better play every opponent from here on out like THEY are the #1 ranked team and we are the underdog.
The two loss scenario is still in play amazingly.
Bama loss to LSU
MSU loss to Bama and OM
Auburn loss to Bama
Leaves 4 teams with two losses. Horribly, based on the timing in that scenario, we would be playing OM to clinch and Auburn would be playing Bama to clinch on the same day. I don't know if I could hate Auburn more but them winning out and us losing to Bama and OM would likely do it.
Bama loss to LSU
MSU loss to Bama and OM
Auburn loss to Bama
Leaves 4 teams with two losses. Horribly, based on the timing in that scenario, we would be playing OM to clinch and Auburn would be playing Bama to clinch on the same day. I don't know if I could hate Auburn more but them winning out and us losing to Bama and OM would likely do it.
Couldn't LSU sneak in there and we have 5 2 loss teams?
MSU - Beat Van Lose Bama and UM
AUB - Beat AM Beat UGA Lose Bama
Bama - Lose LSU Beat MSU and Aub
LSU - Beat BAMA, Upig, and AM
UM - Beat Upig and MSU
Go tiebreak that.
I don't care how this sounds, but as long as those pompous *** wipes from oxford don't win the division, I can live with losing at bama (if that happens).
bama, auburn, lsu, ---any of those three could win the west. I want us to win the division more than anyone, but as long as the rebels don't win it I can deal with whatever else happens.
Its rather simple
Any tie that involves three or more teams that Auburn is a part of, Auburn wins by virtue of the final tiebreak (East opponents record and they play Georgia and S. Carolina). Florida has that luxury in the East (they played Alabama and LSU), but they would need Auburn to beat Georgia and Missouri to lose two of three against Arkansas, Tennessee and A&M to force a three way tie at 5-3.
The only way Ole Miss can win the West at this point is:
They have to beat Arkansas and MSU to go to 6-2.
Georgia and Alabama have to beat Auburn.
Mississippi State has to beat Alabama and lose to Vanderbilt.
That's the only way they can win it.
For MSU to win it with two losses (to Alabama and Ole Miss)
LSU has to beat Alabama
Georgia has to beat Auburn
Auburn has to beat Alabama
Arkansas has to beat Ole Miss
For MSU to win it with two losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt:
LSU and Auburn would have to beat Alabama
Georgia would have to beat Auburn
For MSU to win it with two losses to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss:
Alabama or Georgia would have to beat Auburn
Arkansas would have to beat Ole Miss
For MSU to win it with a loss to Alabama:
LSU or Auburn must beat Alabama
MSU wins it if their only loss is to Ole Miss or Vanderbilt. So if MSU beats Alabama, they wrap it up with a win over Vanderbilt.
Any tie that involves three or more teams that Auburn is a part of, Auburn wins by virtue of the final tiebreak (East opponents record and they play Georgia and S. Carolina). Florida has that luxury in the East (they played Alabama and LSU), but they would need Auburn to beat Georgia and Missouri to lose two of three against Arkansas, Tennessee and A&M to force a three way tie at 5-3.
The only way Ole Miss can win the West at this point is:
They have to beat Arkansas and MSU to go to 6-2.
Georgia and Alabama have to beat Auburn.
Mississippi State has to beat Alabama and lose to Vanderbilt.
That's the only way they can win it.
For MSU to win it with two losses (to Alabama and Ole Miss)
LSU has to beat Alabama
Georgia has to beat Auburn
Auburn has to beat Alabama
Arkansas has to beat Ole Miss
For MSU to win it with two losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt:
LSU and Auburn would have to beat Alabama
Georgia would have to beat Auburn
For MSU to win it with two losses to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss:
Alabama or Georgia would have to beat Auburn
Arkansas would have to beat Ole Miss
For MSU to win it with a loss to Alabama:
LSU or Auburn must beat Alabama
MSU wins it if their only loss is to Ole Miss or Vanderbilt. So if MSU beats Alabama, they wrap it up with a win over Vanderbilt.
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If LSU beats bama it changes nothing that we have to do. We still have to win 2 of our last 3 SEC games to win the west guaranteed.
Auburn likely wins tie break in 5 way tie
because their Eastern Division opponents--SC and GA--likely will have the best combined conference recorded.
because their Eastern Division opponents--SC and GA--likely will have the best combined conference recorded.
Why would Ole Miss need us to beat Alabama? Don't they own the head to head with Bama or does anything involving 3+ tiebreaks disregard head to head of any sort?
Yeah but his scenario had LSU needing to beat Bama. That already puts them at 2 losses. I just thought that OM needed was LSU and AU with 3 conference losses, Bama with 2, and us with 2 provided that we lose to OM as well as their beating Arkansas. So with all that considered, I figured that the most likely of scenarios is LSU over Bama, Bama over MSU and AU, UGA over AU, ARK over LSU and OM over MSU. I don't see why they would need us to lose to Vandy for them to win the West unless there's something I'm missing. Sad thing is is that scenario is still quite possible but it depends on LSU.
I don't think you're quite correct about Auburn. I could have this wrong but they should be able to get in a 3-way tie with State and LSU at 6-2. Bama/OM beat State. LSU wins out (beats Bama). UGA beats Aub. Aub beats Bama (3 losses). Ark beats OM (3 losses).
State would win the 3-way head-to-head with LSU and Aub, being 2-0 vs 1-1 and 0-2.
State would win the 3-way head-to-head with LSU and Aub, being 2-0 vs 1-1 and 0-2.
I think you're right. OM needs to get in a 3-way tie with State and Bama.
So you start with OM. They have to win out.
OM>Ark
OM>State
OM:6-2
Then go to Auburn and State and be realistic. A&M isn't beating Auburn and Vandy isn't beating State. So then both teams have to lose their other 2 games.
Aub>A&M
UGA>Aub (2nd loss)
Bama>Aub (3rd loss)
Aub:5-3
Bama>State (1st loss)
State>Vandy
OM>State (2nd loss)
State:6-2
Bama only has 1 game that they can lose for this to work.
LSU>Bama (2nd loss)
Bama >State
Bama>Aub
Bama:6-2
And LSU has to lose a 3rd. If they don't then I guess LSU goes to ATL?
A&M>LSU or Ark>LSU.
LSU:5-3 or 4-4.
Banners for everyone!
So you start with OM. They have to win out.
OM>Ark
OM>State
OM:6-2
Then go to Auburn and State and be realistic. A&M isn't beating Auburn and Vandy isn't beating State. So then both teams have to lose their other 2 games.
Aub>A&M
UGA>Aub (2nd loss)
Bama>Aub (3rd loss)
Aub:5-3
Bama>State (1st loss)
State>Vandy
OM>State (2nd loss)
State:6-2
Bama only has 1 game that they can lose for this to work.
LSU>Bama (2nd loss)
Bama >State
Bama>Aub
Bama:6-2
And LSU has to lose a 3rd. If they don't then I guess LSU goes to ATL?
A&M>LSU or Ark>LSU.
LSU:5-3 or 4-4.
Banners for everyone!
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Exactly. So both State and Ole Miss should be cheering for LSU. It makes our win look better as well as beats Bama up quite a bit before we play them as well as it keeps Ole Miss' hopes alive. Every other outcome you listed is fairly likely, especially ARK beating LSU. For some reason, they always play LSU close and I really believe that both teams match up pretty well against each other this season too. So who knows... no body's hopes with the exception of aTm and Arkansas are completely dashed at this point.
It's this simple:
Beat Alabama, the west is ours.
Lose to Alabama, and we need the winner of the iron bowl to have another loss (Bama to LSU or Auburn to UGA)
Beat Alabama, the west is ours.
Lose to Alabama, and we need the winner of the iron bowl to have another loss (Bama to LSU or Auburn to UGA)
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Wrong. If we lose to bama we just need to win out and have bama to lose to either Lsu or auburn.
TSUN lost to LSU and it didnt really hurt them. Why wouldn't it be the same for us? I guess all other teams from other conferences have played their competition.
You're right. Its even easier than I was thinking.
There are only 2 scenerios where we DONT win the west:
A: MSU loses both losable games
B: Bama sweeps LSU, MSU, Auburn
B probably still gets us in the playoffs. With A, we can even still win the west if: Ark over UM, UGA over AU, AU over Bama, LSU over Bama. (3 way tie with AU and LSU or 2 way with AU if Ark upsets LSU. We own head to head either way). THAT is the backdoor into the SECCG.
There are only 2 scenerios where we DONT win the west:
A: MSU loses both losable games
B: Bama sweeps LSU, MSU, Auburn
B probably still gets us in the playoffs. With A, we can even still win the west if: Ark over UM, UGA over AU, AU over Bama, LSU over Bama. (3 way tie with AU and LSU or 2 way with AU if Ark upsets LSU. We own head to head either way). THAT is the backdoor into the SECCG.
Incorrect. If Ole Miss beats us too, Auburn wins the west if they win out. (or if we lose to Vandy by some miracle)
Good call. We as fans cannot overlook teams. Otherwise we may miss an assignment from our seat/couch and allow the upset!