So . . . Your Opinion on the One & Done?
- Thread starter Random UK Fan
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Times have changed. Noway would the great players of the past would of stuck around for multiple years. Duke has always recruited some of the best players, the chance to go make a living changed, so you have to keep up. How many people are doing stuff in your everyday lives the same way you did it 10-20 years ago? I know I adjusted. I would rather stay up with the changes than complain about not getting any talent. I think it has more to do with not trusting and developing the lower talent than the one and dones.
Duke has to do better with playing the other 4-5 star players and gaining trust in what they can bring. Noway Goldwire shouldn't have not played one minute. I think for most, the one and dones are the spotlight to put displeasure on. For me it's the lack of trust for the other guys that's wearing the uniform. A good team of players will beat a great starting lineup at the most unfortunate time.
Duke has to do better with playing the other 4-5 star players and gaining trust in what they can bring. Noway Goldwire shouldn't have not played one minute. I think for most, the one and dones are the spotlight to put displeasure on. For me it's the lack of trust for the other guys that's wearing the uniform. A good team of players will beat a great starting lineup at the most unfortunate time.
We've had 4 teams with more than one OAD (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019). Made it to the Elite 8 three out of four times. Kentucky has made it to the Elite 8 seven times this decade! Anyone who says the OAD model doesn't work is completely blind. There are only two programs that are really built on the OAD foundation. So when I have a sample size of 14 years between Kentucky and Duke, and the success rate of going to the Elite 8 is 10 out of 14 (71.4%), I say give me those odds every freaking day of the week.
UNC, FWIW, has had 5 Senior Starters the last two years - and they've won 3 NCAA Tournament Games.
UNC, FWIW, has had 5 Senior Starters the last two years - and they've won 3 NCAA Tournament Games.
There’s a difference between having leadership (upperclassmen) with OAD talent and then there’s letting OAD talent run wild.
Great. Well, take our senior leadership from the previous 10 years (2005-2014) and we have exactly 2 Elite 8 appearances. Talent > Senior Leadership
2005-2014: 18 tournament wins = 1.8 wins per year
2015, 2017-2019: 13 tournament wins = 3.25 wins per year
I may be alone here, but I prefer the OAD rule to the previous rule. Can't help but think about all these great players that would never have put on a Duke uni if we were still under the previous rule. Heck, even guys like Kobe and Lebron may have been Duke players if the OAD rule had been in effect at the time. I'd take that. Even without the OAD rule, college basketball is still going to struggle with turnover. Different landscape these days.
Let's pretend the OAD rule never happened: Does Duke have more titles than they do now? Maybe, but doubtful. Duke would probably still be stuck on 4 while we are sitting here rueing the latest commit who decided he would head to the league instead (ala Shaun Livingston).
Let's pretend the OAD rule never happened: Does Duke have more titles than they do now? Maybe, but doubtful. Duke would probably still be stuck on 4 while we are sitting here rueing the latest commit who decided he would head to the league instead (ala Shaun Livingston).
I agree with dukedevilz. It's been a great ride with the OADs, a lot of frustration but also a ton of fun. You're fooling yourself if you think that building around seniors gets significantly better results. In 2006 we had one of our truly great senior classes and lost in the sweet 16. In 2002 we had freaking JWill, Dunleavy, and Boozer as JUNIORS (can you imagine...that would be like having Kennard, Jackson, and Tatum on this years team) and yet still lost in the Sweet 16. We had a senior leader take the last shot and miss last year. This year we had a freshman take the last shot and miss. Same result.
Experience is great but let's not kid ourselves here, even with experience it is damn hard to make Final Fours and win National Championships. Gonzaga and UNC were loaded with experienced talent this year and didn't get any further than we did.
Experience is great but let's not kid ourselves here, even with experience it is damn hard to make Final Fours and win National Championships. Gonzaga and UNC were loaded with experienced talent this year and didn't get any further than we did.
I’m not saying anything is wrong with one and done players. I think the difference between this year and 2015 is Quinn Cook. He wasn’t the most talented guy on the floor, or even the 3rd most talented. But his leadership and experience helped guide us and provided valuable game management.
I’m cool with the diaper dandies, but I think it’s imperative to ALSO have a leader in our corner.
Good post. People are always so reactionary after a loss, particularly when you were one of the teams good enough to win it all. The reality is that there is no specific formula to winning it all that is more effective than any other - the only absolutely vital and irreplaceable ingredient is talent. Duke could have won just as easily as they lost yesterday.
I sure as heck would rather have Zion Williamson than play against Zion Williamson.
This is the part that some don't want to talk about. Maybe Goldwire should have played more. Alex should have played more. He plays 35 minutes against VT, plays barely 5 against Michigan State. Yet the guy who replaced him is a one and done, but had a whopping 8 points.
Bolden? How much longer can we use the "well he's been injured a part of his career" line? He's just not that good. Sorry. He's a good teammate, and I want him to be good, but he isn't. Jack is another good kid, but totally lost as a basketball player. His only bright spot offensively was hitting the corner 3, yet that part left him a while back, which made him all but useless on the court.
We don't know how good we will be next season. But no matter who suits up for Duke, unless all 5 are threats to score, it's hard for me to think we will contend. And we had the BEST player this season, and still barely got out of the rounds of 32 and 16.
Blows my.mind that people don't understand that eliminating the OAD rule does not eliminate OADs. And from a college fan's perspective it makes it worse because, as you mentioned, we wouldn't know if a guy is going to head straight to the league after high school or come to college.
Coach K is still recruiting the same top talent that he did 30 years ago....like some have already said, i remember when many complained after the jj/sheldon team that we couldnt attract top talent...now we getting it and its a problem?.....since 2015, we have been pretty successful
2015- natty---------winslow and jones surprises
2017- ACC CHAMPS------jackson surprise
2018- E8-----trent surprise
2019- ACC CHAMPS/E8------jones TBD
AVG 31 wins and 7 losses
When and if (2022), it goes back to 18, the top 4-6 will be gone, and K and everyone else would be heavy recruiting the remainder which will contain some kids that will still leave after 1 year
2015- natty---------winslow and jones surprises
2017- ACC CHAMPS------jackson surprise
2018- E8-----trent surprise
2019- ACC CHAMPS/E8------jones TBD
AVG 31 wins and 7 losses
When and if (2022), it goes back to 18, the top 4-6 will be gone, and K and everyone else would be heavy recruiting the remainder which will contain some kids that will still leave after 1 year
I felt more connected to this squad than last years. Probably largely because of Zion, but this squad felt special whereas I never got super attached to last year's for some reason.
Agreed. Felt like this team completely unpacked their bags, whereas last year's team was just here for the obligatory 9-month service.
What's the success rate of non-OAD teams making it to the Elite Eight in the last 14 years?
How do you want to figure that out? Would we have to take the other 349 D1 teams and extrapolate it out? Because not all of them made it. I'd say it's probably 1 or 2% if we go that way....maybe less.
Although I enjoyed watching this team over the year and liked the player personalities a lot, I did not really feel invested in it because of the knowledge that the freshman will likely not be back. And for that reason, I was pretty unemotional with the loss to MSU and with the very disappointing manner in which we lost. Suit me fine if Duke ditched the OAD's and returned to actually building a team instead of trying to hire one right out of high school. I look at Izzo's success at building and molding MSU, and am jealous. MSU seems to start every year with a few losses but continuously improves over the year.
I think K got too O&D happy..
The best TEAMS we’ve had in this era was the Kyrie team (safe to say we would have been a Final Four team if Kyrie never got injured).. & the 2015 Championship team (Jahlil was the only Freshman really considered to be O&D going into that year)..
Having multiple O&D players on the team hurts the team chemistry and really hinders the development of the 4 year players..
Tre & RJ each played more minutes this year than Javin, Jack, Bolden, & AOC have in their entire Duke careers.. that’s crazy.
The best TEAMS we’ve had in this era was the Kyrie team (safe to say we would have been a Final Four team if Kyrie never got injured).. & the 2015 Championship team (Jahlil was the only Freshman really considered to be O&D going into that year)..
Having multiple O&D players on the team hurts the team chemistry and really hinders the development of the 4 year players..
Tre & RJ each played more minutes this year than Javin, Jack, Bolden, & AOC have in their entire Duke careers.. that’s crazy.
I'll just use schools from the Power 6 Conferences (76 total, including Gonzaga), since nobody expects mid-majors to make it very far.
OAD started in 2007, so that's a 13-year stretch. 13 * 8 = 104
- 9 of those teams were mid-majors, 11 were OAD (Ohio State 2007 was a OAD team as well). So you have 84 Elite 8 teams from major conferences that aren't built on OADs.
76 teams *13 years= 988
84/988= 8.5%
so... 10/14 = 71.4%, or 84/988 (8.5%). Hmm...
Guess I should take the 15 OAD teams out of the denominator (Kentucky- 10, Duke- 4, Ohio State- 1). And Ohio State '07 should be factored into the OAD percentage.
Okay, so... 8.63% (84/973) compared to 73.3% (11/15).
Here's another fun one for you: Kyrie Irving in 11 games played more minutes than Vrankovic did in his 4 year career.
Many (or most) UK fans agree. Cal can't do it..K can't do it..
Some opposing fans (mostly UL) like to say that "Cal does less with more".
Maybe he has someone to share that tag with now. But really, it would apply
to anyone who tries it with 4/5 Fr in a 7 man rotation. Srs off the bench don't
help much. t
There's a reason they are still on the bench as seniors. If UK players are not drafted early, they transfer. Rarely ever have 4 yr players.
The problem with the 1 and done is that it continues to expand. 5 years ago only a few people would come in with realistic expectations of being 1 and done. Now fringe first rounders are leaving after the first year. It’s frustrating on fans and must be even more frustrating on coaches. We all want what’s best for our players and I don’t begrudge a single player for leaving. It’s their damn lottery ticket they have the right to cash it in whenever they so choose.
The part that is frustrating and why I get so animated when people criticize K about our bench is because it’s created an impossible situation for our program. The better we do in recruiting the worse it becomes for our long term development. Impossible to know which players will be here which players will go. Impossible to know which players will transfer after first semester because they aren’t getting immediate playing time to their liking. Impossible to find sufficient playing time for the guys who are willing to stick around. We are victims of our own success.
What do we want K to do, stop offering scholarships to the best players? Or cut back? And then when we miss on the smaller nets we cast he’ll get criticized for not having enough talent.
It’s impossible to satisfy our fans. I love getting the best talent, but I’m also very aware of the effect it has on our entire program in today’s world.
The part that is frustrating and why I get so animated when people criticize K about our bench is because it’s created an impossible situation for our program. The better we do in recruiting the worse it becomes for our long term development. Impossible to know which players will be here which players will go. Impossible to know which players will transfer after first semester because they aren’t getting immediate playing time to their liking. Impossible to find sufficient playing time for the guys who are willing to stick around. We are victims of our own success.
What do we want K to do, stop offering scholarships to the best players? Or cut back? And then when we miss on the smaller nets we cast he’ll get criticized for not having enough talent.
It’s impossible to satisfy our fans. I love getting the best talent, but I’m also very aware of the effect it has on our entire program in today’s world.
In the OAD era, nobody has won more than UK and Duke. 2 years ago everybody wanted to jump on the South Carolina bandwagon and the model they used. What have they done since? Where do we see Auburn and Texas Tech this time next year? UK and Duke are in the discussion EVERY year.
Don’t tell that to some. You would think the same few teams win it every single year. It’s tough to win this tournament, really really really tough. A much better analysis is how these teams fare over a 40 game season. Every year Duke is a 1-3 seed. We have been very successful and have won a national championship within the last 5 years, it ain’t that bad.
I guess that's the beauty of the tournament and at the same time the frustrating part about it. If you guys played Sparty again tonight, you probably win by double digits. We lost to a team we had beaten by 27 earlier. That's almost as bad as you guys beat us...lol
Relying on OADs isn’t the best route if you hope for a final four run. You do have to have a mixture. I really hate to say it but ole Roy has been doing it right year in and year out. They run into a buzzsaw that no one seen coming this year and that happens, but overall work, since Roy has been at UNC he has more Nattys and FF than anyone in the country. I would rather have banners over the number 1 pick in the draft every year. That 2010 team was so special because they were not the best players that year, but they were the best team.
Roy has been able to accomplish this by keeping OAD talent for 3-4 years during this duration. Let's not pretend he's done it with 3 and 4 star players.
Without the OADs, we may not have been able to see Parker, Okafor, Jones x 2, Bagley, Ingram, Jackson, Winslow, Carter, Duval, Zion, RJ, Cam, and others don the Duke uniform. I'm really excited they did and I hope we get more.
He recruits those middle of the road 5 star players, he has actually come out smelling like a rose from a pile of crap. With what was hanging over their program for years kept top tier talent from going there in fear of probations and such. But really good players was still committing and staying and that’s how he wound up with a lot of upperclassmen that were really good players
Everyone says that, but Duke recruits kids who are similarly ranked.
Edwards had an 82 (#88 recruit) grade from ESPN; Winston an 89 Grade (#31).
Duke's:
Jordan Tucker (88 grade). Alex O'Connell (83). Marques Bolden (93). DeLaurier (87). Thornton (90). Even Jordan Goldwire had a 78 grade.
And one can go back further and find several more.
Several issues come in play:
1. (This is #1 by a mile) Coach K does not use players off the bench and they don't develop or they get discouraged, lose confidence, and / or transfer. Edwards, for example, got 23 mpg and averaged 10 Pts a game as a freshman. Cassius Winston got 20.7 mpg as a freshman and averaged 6 Pts a game.
K, simply will not tolerate that. He treats players as "either you're great and you play, or you sit the bench and there's a good chance you will stay there." Tucker left because he got no PT, saw the writing on the wall with more wings coming in, and left. He had 22 mpg and 9 Pts a game for Butler last year (37% from 3; 82% from the line). He'll have two more years of eligibility. He could be a 15-18 pt / game player by the time he's a senior.
Imagine having a player like that on Duke this year? He'd probably get more open 3s.
But, K gets far too nervous and plays the starters the whole game. He doesn't develop his teams over a single season, let alone 2-3 seasons. He treats each game each year as though every game is must win tournament game, esp. when it gets to conference play. He won't rest a freshman 5-6 more minutes to give other kids PT.
There's no reason Barrett and Tre should be getting 34-35 mpg (Zion would have if he hadn't been injured). They should get 30 mpg and give more time to other kids and work them into the rotation to play together. It's hard, but put that on the players to learn.
The last systematic rotation that K had was 2010 (with the Plumlees off the bench). It worked like a charm. There was no rhyme or reason to the rotation this year. Goldwire got great minutes near the end of the year. Then, doesn't play 2 seconds against MSU. Makes no sense.
2. Partly a product of 1, and perhaps partly b/c of bad scouting or just not giving time to develop those kids, Duke's players don't develop like an Edwards or Winston, or several other kids in this tourney.
Not me. I don't have a problem with OAD. I can watch individual player on any team. I can watch Ja Morant and appreciate his play - whether he's on Duke or not. Same with Auburn's guards.
But, I'd rather get to Final Fours and win titles than see a kid play for us for one year and watch us go down. Zion? Sure. He's the exception. He's arguably the most exciting college player since David Thompson. Maybe the most exciting ever.
But, I'll take the team of Singler-Scheyer-Smith winning a title over watching Jabari Parker go 8 for 23 and watch Duke go out early. Far, far more pleasant.
Overall, I like the OAD and I think it will be disappointing when it ends. I'd prefer 2 or 3 and done.
Recruiting is a disaster without OAD. Many times Duke had kids coming in who then went pro and we had gaps in recruiting. How do you recruit a PG ranked 25th overall in the nation if you've got a PG ranked 3rd overall? Then that guy (like a Shaun Livingston) goes pro and you are up a creek.
What should happen is they should be paid. They should also be allowed to sign shoe contracts coming out of high school and get a bonus up front (say, $10K? or $50K to their parents) but then have the rest deferred until they finish their first year. And, they should get paid for their image. Duke has made so much money on tickets, jersey sales, etc. b/c of Zion. Had Duke won a title, the monetary value of Zion to the school would have been off the charts.
When it changes, I think that the NBA and NCAA have to work together. They have to have a rule to the effect of, "These 10-15 players are lottery picks or 1st round picks (which get guaranteed contracts) and they can come out. The rest - go to college for two years," Similar to baseball.
The only problem at Duke with OAD is Duke does not do a good job developing and getting a modicum of PT for non OAD players.
Recruiting is a disaster without OAD. Many times Duke had kids coming in who then went pro and we had gaps in recruiting. How do you recruit a PG ranked 25th overall in the nation if you've got a PG ranked 3rd overall? Then that guy (like a Shaun Livingston) goes pro and you are up a creek.
What should happen is they should be paid. They should also be allowed to sign shoe contracts coming out of high school and get a bonus up front (say, $10K? or $50K to their parents) but then have the rest deferred until they finish their first year. And, they should get paid for their image. Duke has made so much money on tickets, jersey sales, etc. b/c of Zion. Had Duke won a title, the monetary value of Zion to the school would have been off the charts.
When it changes, I think that the NBA and NCAA have to work together. They have to have a rule to the effect of, "These 10-15 players are lottery picks or 1st round picks (which get guaranteed contracts) and they can come out. The rest - go to college for two years," Similar to baseball.
The only problem at Duke with OAD is Duke does not do a good job developing and getting a modicum of PT for non OAD players.
You are jealous of Izzo and MSU?
- 1 title in 40 years.
They continuously improve over the year? Just look at this decade, its filled with disappointment and bad endings
- Last year (as a 3 seed) they loss to an 11 seed in the 2nd round
- 2017 lost in the second round (had a terrible season)
- 2016 lost in first round to a 15 seed
- 2015 lost to Duke
- 2014 lost to a 7 seed (as a 4 seed)
- 2013 lost to Duke
- 2012 lost in SW 16 as a 1 seed
- 2011 lost in first round (had a terrible season)
Wait, you'd rather win a title than lose in the first round!?!?
Did you enjoy the '15 OAD team or the '07 team? Heck, what about the '15 OAD team or the '06 team loaded with 2 historic seniors?
Watching Zion was absolutely entertaining and what an athlete, but I enjoyed watching what Laettner and Hurley and Hill done over 4 years than watching a super freak athlete for one year and getting drafted number 1. I can still remember every player on Dukes teams from 1989 to 2010. Since we have hit the OAD era I can’t remember half of the guys anymore. Might be age but now a days they are not household names anymore.
Fair. I was looking at it from both angles honestly, meaning whether the alternative is no college or a mandatory number of years in college. If some of the earlier guys were forced to stay, it may have impacted our ability to land others on that list.
Cassius Winston got 20.7 mpg as a freshman. Michigan State was 20-15 and lost in the 2nd Round. You would be the first one one here bashing Coach K for recruiting a terrible talent like Winston if we had a season like that. That's like a 2007 Duke kind of season.
So what you're basically saying is you would trade the 30+ wins and Elite Eight seasons for the 20-25 wins and 2nd Round seasons in the hope that the 20-25 win seasons MIGHT lead to a championship two years later. Ok. 2010 was amazing but damn, 2007-2009 was miserable and we had no clue if all of that would pay off or not. Had Hayward hit his half court shot we would say that 2007-2010 was miserable with a heartbreaking end.