Soccer Bracketology - way too early wild guesses

[Maroon Eagle]

South Africa
Greece
N. Korea
United States

Brazil
Slovenia
S. Korea
Cameroon

Spain
Serbia
Australia
Nigeria

Netherlands
Switzerland
Paraguay
Mexico

Italy
Portugal
Uruguay
Cote d'Ivoire

Germany
Denmark
New Zealand
Honduras

Argentina
France
Japan
Algeria

England
Slovakia
Chile
Ghana

I figure the seeded teams will be the teams listed first in each group, then the unseeded Europeans will be sorted out, followed by a combination of Asia/South America/New Zealand, finished off by Africa and Concacaf.

If Costa Rica somehow defeats Uruguay, I think the sorting would be changed to: Seeded teams, UEFA, Asia and Concacaf, and then Africa, South America, and New Zealand.

BTW, I didn't know that FIFA employed SEC football referees. The Irish were gypped.</p>

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

I know it is just a guess, but that would be an excellent draw.

 

[MSUCostanza]

we get put in a group that easy.

 

[msubullie4life]

I think the top 8 seeds are going to be:

Brazil
Spain
Germany
Italy
Argentina
England
France
South Africa (host)

Netherlands will miss out on being one of the 8 seeds. While determining the seedings, FIFA gives a lot of weightage to previous 2 or 3 WCs (in 2006 it was the last 2 WCs..in </a><a title="2002 " href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding">2002 and 1998, it was the previous 3 WCs...This years seeding system has not been announced yet). Of course, they take into account the world rankings in the past 3 years too. Seeing that the French were finalists last year and Holland missed the 2002 WC, it is difficult to see the Dutch (or any other team like Portugal) leap-frog the French.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

France is #9, and I think it'll be between those two countries for the last seeded spot. I'm also kind of thinking the French might be unseeded because of Henry's handball earlier this afternoon.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

That being said, if the USA, Mexico, and Honduras are indeed grouped with Africa the US has a one-third chance of being drawn in South Africa's group because I don't expect FIFA to group two African teams together, and the way the qualification looks so far-- I would not be surprised if Concacaf and Africa are grouped together.

 

[msubullie4life]

Ok, I did some quick Math using the 2006 formula:

Here's how it stands: According to FIFA calculations, 1st place gets 32 pts...2nd place, 31 pts and so on

Standing (Pts)
Dutch/French

02 WC (33.3%): 0(0)/28(8) (Looks like FIFA awards 8 points to all the last place finishers in the group stage of WC)
06 WC (66.7%): 9(24)/2(31) (the Dutch lost in the 2nd round and I placed them 9th based on their finish in Group game points table)

Total WC pts: 16 (Dutch)/23.33 (French)

Nov 09 Rankings (33.3%): 3(30)/9(24)
Dec 08 Rankings (33.3%): 4(29)/12(21)
Dec 07 Rankings (33.3%): 9(24)/7(26)

Total Ranking pts: 27.67 (Dutch)/ 23.67 (French)

OVERALL Points: 43.67 (Dutch)/ 47 (French)

I'm surprised at how close the point difference is. Of course, the FIFA can come up with a totally different formula for the 2010 draw. If the seeding formula remains the same as 2006, which ever seeded team is going to draw the Dutch are 17ed. They seem to be in terrific form.

PS: If you take the 1998/2002 formula into account where they take the previous 3 WCs (50%, 33.3% and 16.7%) into calcualtions instead of only the previous 2 (66.7% and 33.3%), it still is slight advantage to the French as they won the WC in 1998 (The Dutch finished 4th).