*** Soccer Post - 2010 World Cup draw discussion ***

[msubullie4life]

Soccer Bulligans (okay, I just made that word up)......with Uruguay clinching the last playoff spot, the World Cup qualifications are done and the World Cup draw is set for Dec 4th.

Here are the final 32:

AFRICA: South Africa, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria
ASIA/Oceania: Australia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, New Zealand
EUROPE: Denmark, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, France
S. AMERICA: Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay
CONCACAF: United States, Mexico, Honduras

Let's see how the draw pots are going to be set up for the 2010 WC:

Pot A (Seeds): Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, France, South Africa
Pot B (Europe): Denmark, Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Portugal, Greece, Slovenia

I doubt that they are going to break up Asia and Oceania, since it makes a nice group of 5..there is another group with 5 teams too (Africa) and 2 with 3 teams (CONCACAF & S. America). Europe has 8 unseeded teams. This has played well for the draw..8 seeds in 1 pot, 8 unseeded European teams in 2nd pot, then the other 2 pots make up a combination of 5+3..assuming New Zealand is grouped with Asia, as they should be. (There is no way we are grouped with the S. American teams, forget it).

The question is which pot will the USA and CONCACAF be along with. I'd love to see them with the African pot not just because the African teams are higher ranked than the Asian teams but they scare the crap out of me. There is always 1 or 2 African teams who have outstanding group stage performances. Plus, with the WC taking place in Africa, I expect some "quality" FIFA refereeing.

Pot scenario based on </a><a rel="nofollow" title="2002 WC draw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup">2002 WC draw (Current FIFA rankings in paranthesis):

Pot C (Asia/Oceania/S.America): Australia (24) , Japan (40), North Korea (91), South Korea (48), New Zealand (83), Paraguay (21), Chile (17), Uruguay (25)
Pot D (Africa/CONCACAF): Ghana (38), Ivory Coast (19), Cameroon (14), Nigeria (32), Algeria (29), United States (11), Mexico (18), Honduras (35)

Pot scenario based on </a><a rel="nofollow" title="2006 WC draw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup">2006 WC draw (Current FIFA rankings in parenthesis):

Pot C (Africa/S.America): Ghana (38), Ivory Coast (19), Cameroon (14), Nigeria (32), Algeria (29), Paraguay (21), Chile (17), Uruguay (25)
Pot D (Asia/Oceania/CONCACAF): Australia (24) , Japan (40), North Korea (91), South Korea (48), New Zealand (83), United States (11), Mexico (18), Honduras (35)

PS: This is for anyone hoping for a miracle sseding for the USA. I just found some mock seedings done by SI.com about a month ago. Plus, we just lost 2 friendlies recently squashing all hopes of a seed.

Mock Rankings for seedings:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/grant_wahl/10/14/charlie.davies/1.html

Brazil 59.7
Germany 59.5
Italy 56.5
Spain 56.0
England 51.3
Argentina 51.0
France 47.2
South Africa host
----------------------------
Portugal 45.5
Netherlands 43.0
Mexico 36.0
United States 34.3
Paraguay 34.0

PPS: MaroonEagle, looks like that battle for the final seed would be between Portugal and France with the Dutch in the mix too.

 

[MSUCostanza]

is to get drawn into South Africa's pool. If we get drawn into one of the Euro powers' pools, we might as well cancel our hotel reservations after the group stage right now, because the team I've been watching has no bloody chance of getting out of group. None.

Our luck, and with the way we are usually royally screwed over by FIFA, we'll get drawn with Brazil and Holland.

 

[msubullie4life]

..to get into S. Africa's pool. We all have to remember this too: No host has ever failed to advance past the 1st round. I'll bet that FIFA would do anything to ensure S. Africa's progress into the 2nd round (See: S. Korea and Japan in 2002). Having said that if we get drawn into S. Africa's pool and get a mid-level European (read: no Holland and Portugal)team, that would be the ideal scenario. Also, I wouldn't mind being in France's pool (if they get seeded) either with a mid-level European team.

But having said that, you are right...we will most probably end up in a group of death with couple of powerhouses. Dammit, Dec 4th can't get here soon.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

How could I forget them...

Like you, I'm hoping that Africa and Concacaf are in a pot. As previously mentioned, I think FIFA will separate whatever confederation is with the African teams in a separate pot to do a special draw for South Africa's group to keep from having two teams in the same confederation in a group.

 

[msubullie4life]

could very well happen. I'm not sure if the Asian countries (Saudi Arabia and China) were kept apart on purpose in 2002 with S. Korea and Japan as hosts or if it was coincidence. This link doesn't not mention about 2 Asian teams being drawn away from the hosts intentionally (Click). It mentions about the drawing to make sure no group had 3 European teams. The same thing happened in 2006 (Click).

FIFA needs to quit seeding hosts if they aren't in the top 10..heck, move that criteria further to top 20. South Africa is currently #85 in world rankings; Japan and South Korea were 34 and 42 respectively in Dec 2001 before the draw took place. I think it's unfair to quality teams out there...not just the ones who missed getting seeded but also the seeded teams which draw them into their group. The hosts get home field advantage and get to host the biggest sporting event in the world. That should be plenty enough for them.

 

[Uncle Leo]

As long as FIFA continues to make the draw as they have recently, we'll continue to be drawn into tough groups. And until FIFA seeds teams 9-16, there will be so-called "groups of death." Seeding the next 8 teams would go a long way toward evening out the groups.

As it is, I don't see the need in artificially separating certain continental zones. I understand having a special pot of the unseeded European teams, but outside of that, you can keep teams within other zones apart on the fly as the draw is taking place without forcing, say, CONCACAF and Africa apart by putting them in the same pot. It just seems arbitrary.

If you've ever watched a Champions League group stage draw, they do this sort of on-the-fly separation of clubs from the same country all the time.

 

[jsireland]

after the way they set it up for last go-round, with the pot setup essentially ensuring two europeans and an african. but after watching a lot of qualifying (5 hours last night alone!), i'm not so upset. sure, it'd be nice to play new zealand, but all hope is not lost. at least until december 4th.

sure, south africa is the weakest, but you'll probably see a bit of home-cooking and you've got the entire crowd against you. obviously you'd like to avoid a powerhouse like say, the germans, but a (projected) pot 1 team like argentina or france might not be awful, or portugal if they slip into the mix. then you've got an unseeded european team: slovenia and greece have looked very beatable, and even teams like slovakia, switzerland, and denmark (last night aside) aren't overly scary. and there are plenty of powerhouse african sides, but teams like ghana and algeria are certainly not group-of-death material.

so basically, while we'll probably get screwed by lumping concacaf with africaf, it won't be the end of the world. yet.

 

[patdog]

They need to just have 8 #1 seeds, 8 #2 seeds, 8 #3 seeds and 8 #4 seeds. Place the top 8 into each group, matching them up 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, and 4-5 in the 1st round of the knockout stage. Then draw from the #2 seeds. If you reach an impermissible draw (2 teams from the same zone or 3 teams from Europe), start that draw over until you do get a permissible draw. Then move on to the #3 seeds and #4 seeds. This business of combining zones into a pot is just ********.

 

[msubullie4life]

FIFA needs to start seeding all 32 teams and go about the draw like patdog has suggested. For the Euro 2012 qualifiers, I don't see FIFA and UEFA trying to separate out teams into pots of Southern Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, British Isles, Scandinavian, etc. It's a straight up seeding of 6 pots of 9 teams of higher seeing (except for the last pot of 6 teams). Link

All is not lost. Here's hoping for a great draw.

 

[msubullie4life]

would be getting screwed. That would be much a better scenario than CONCACAF and Asia/Oceania in the same pot. That's just my opinion.

so basically, while we'll probably get screwed by lumping concacaf with africaf, it won't be the end of the world. yet.

 

[patdog]

when we were in the pot with Asia/Oceania. We definitely want to be in the pot with Africa so we get the chance to play an Asian/Oceania team.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

I think attempting to avoid any regionalized groups is a good idea and makes for a better tournament. Now maybe they could go about it in a better way than this pot system, but there shouldn't be more than 2 UEFA teams in a group and more than 1 of any other Confederation in a group. And the top 8 teams should be separated. But I don't think seeding an entire draw is good for the World Cup. It should really not be that difficult to somewhat randomly draw groups while ensuring against a USA and a Mexico or a Brazil and a Chile getting in the same group. The 4 pot system I think just makes for an easier draw to televise with the little lotto balls or whatever they use.

 

[patdog]

(or 3 for UEFA). But you can avoid that without the pot system, which artificially forces teams from difference zones in the same group. For example, in the 2006 World Cup it was decided from the start that the USA could not be in the same group with an Asia/Oceania team just because they were put into the same pot.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

But I still disagree with seeding all the teams. All that is needed is to separate the top 8 teams and disperse each Confederation. The rest should be random (including knockout stage matchups).

 

[Uncle Leo]

The rest should be random (including knockout stage matchups).

That's how the Champions League does it, and I think it adds to the excitement.

After the group stage, put the group winners in one pot and the runners-up in another. Draw them against each other, making sure to avoid group stage rematches. Then after the round of 16, put the 8 winners together and draw for the next two rounds.