Ok, I had an hour to kill and I did some number-crunching on the 8 groups to see the difficult and easy groups.
Here are the 32 teams in 8 groups with the current (Nov 2009) FIFA rankings in the parentheses. Adding all the rankings gives us an idea of the strengths of each group. But this adding up of the current rankings does not do justice to the actual difficulty of each groups because Groups A, F & G are inflated due to one poor team in it. So, I've also added a top-3 total by eliminating the worst-ranked team in each group.
I also ranked the teams 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for all the teams in the World Cup. Please note that I did not use FIFA's top 8 seedings since they used a method that worked for them (Aug 2009 rankings) to basically keep France out to the top seedings. I used the seedings and totaled for both the all 4 and top 3 teams in each group.
Why top 3?? Because historically, two of the top 3 ranked teams usually qualify for the next round. Very rarely does a bottom placed-team like Ghana (2006 in our group) makes it to the second round.
Group A: South Africa (86/32), Mexico (15/13), Uruguay (19/17), France (7/7)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 127; Top-3: 41
(Ranking all 32) Total: 69; Top-3: 37
Group B: Argentina (8/8), Nigeria (22/20), South Korea (52/29), Greece (12/11)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 94; Top-3: 42
(Ranking all 32) Total: 68; Top-3: 39
Group C: England (9/9), United States (14/12), Algeria (28/22), Slovenia (33/24)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 84; Top-3: 51
(Ranking all 32) Total: 67; Top-3: 43
Group D: Germany (6/6), Australia (21/19), Serbia (20/18), Ghana (37/26)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 84; Top-3: 47
(Ranking all 32) Total: 69; Top-3: 43
Group E: Netherlands (3/3), Denmark (26/21), Japan (43/28), Cameroon (11/10)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 83; Top-3: 40
(Ranking all 32) Total: 62; Top-3: 34
Group F: Italy (4/4), Paraguay (30/23), New Zealand (77/30), Slovakia (34/25)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 145; Top-3: 68
(Ranking all 32) Total: 82; Top-3: 52
Group G: Brazil (2/2), North Korea (84/31), Ivory Coast (16/14), Portugal (5/5)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 107; Top-3: 23
(Ranking all 32) Total: 52; Top-3: 21
Group H: Spain (1/1), Switzerland (18/16), Honduras (38/27), Chile (17/15)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 74; Top-3: 36
(Ranking all 32) Total: 59; Top-3: 32
Going through the different rankings from above, we see the following ranks (1 being MOST difficult and 8 being LEAST difficult):
F4 F3 R4 R3
A 7 4 6.5 4
B 5 5 5 5
C 3.5 7 4 6.5
D 3.5 6 6.5 6.5
E 2 3 3 3
F 8 8 8 8
G 6 1 1 1
H 1 2 2 2
Note:
F4 - Fifa rankings of all 4 teams in the group
F3 - Fifa rankings of top 3 teams in the group
R4 - Ranking 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for all 4 teams in the group
R3 - Ranking 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for top 3 teams in the group
Notes:
- Using the Top 3 method, we have one of the 2 or 3 easiest groups. It'll be a crying shame if we don't get out of it.
- Anyway you look at it, Italy has the easiest group.
- Group G looks to be the toughest. Even though it doesn't have the same quality as groups in the past anointed as the "Group of Death" right after a WC Draw (2006-Italy, USA, Czech Rep, Ghana ; 2002-England, Sweden, Argentina, Nigeria)
- The second toughest group seems to be Group H. Spain should make it out of it (unless they have one of their epic WC failures). The battle for #2 will be really interesting.
- I think the most intriguing group to watch is going to be Group A with the host and 3 really good teams in France, Mexico, and Uruguay. I can't wait to see which team is going to get the great FIFA screw-job to send South Africa into the second round. I hope it is France.
Discuss.
PS: Please forgive me if I made any McClurian errors in my calculations.
Here are the 32 teams in 8 groups with the current (Nov 2009) FIFA rankings in the parentheses. Adding all the rankings gives us an idea of the strengths of each group. But this adding up of the current rankings does not do justice to the actual difficulty of each groups because Groups A, F & G are inflated due to one poor team in it. So, I've also added a top-3 total by eliminating the worst-ranked team in each group.
I also ranked the teams 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for all the teams in the World Cup. Please note that I did not use FIFA's top 8 seedings since they used a method that worked for them (Aug 2009 rankings) to basically keep France out to the top seedings. I used the seedings and totaled for both the all 4 and top 3 teams in each group.
Why top 3?? Because historically, two of the top 3 ranked teams usually qualify for the next round. Very rarely does a bottom placed-team like Ghana (2006 in our group) makes it to the second round.
Group A: South Africa (86/32), Mexico (15/13), Uruguay (19/17), France (7/7)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 127; Top-3: 41
(Ranking all 32) Total: 69; Top-3: 37
Group B: Argentina (8/8), Nigeria (22/20), South Korea (52/29), Greece (12/11)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 94; Top-3: 42
(Ranking all 32) Total: 68; Top-3: 39
Group C: England (9/9), United States (14/12), Algeria (28/22), Slovenia (33/24)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 84; Top-3: 51
(Ranking all 32) Total: 67; Top-3: 43
Group D: Germany (6/6), Australia (21/19), Serbia (20/18), Ghana (37/26)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 84; Top-3: 47
(Ranking all 32) Total: 69; Top-3: 43
Group E: Netherlands (3/3), Denmark (26/21), Japan (43/28), Cameroon (11/10)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 83; Top-3: 40
(Ranking all 32) Total: 62; Top-3: 34
Group F: Italy (4/4), Paraguay (30/23), New Zealand (77/30), Slovakia (34/25)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 145; Top-3: 68
(Ranking all 32) Total: 82; Top-3: 52
Group G: Brazil (2/2), North Korea (84/31), Ivory Coast (16/14), Portugal (5/5)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 107; Top-3: 23
(Ranking all 32) Total: 52; Top-3: 21
Group H: Spain (1/1), Switzerland (18/16), Honduras (38/27), Chile (17/15)
(FIFA Rankings) Total: 74; Top-3: 36
(Ranking all 32) Total: 59; Top-3: 32
Going through the different rankings from above, we see the following ranks (1 being MOST difficult and 8 being LEAST difficult):
F4 F3 R4 R3
A 7 4 6.5 4
B 5 5 5 5
C 3.5 7 4 6.5
D 3.5 6 6.5 6.5
E 2 3 3 3
F 8 8 8 8
G 6 1 1 1
H 1 2 2 2
Note:
F4 - Fifa rankings of all 4 teams in the group
F3 - Fifa rankings of top 3 teams in the group
R4 - Ranking 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for all 4 teams in the group
R3 - Ranking 1-32 using Nov 2009 FIFA rankings for top 3 teams in the group
Notes:
- Using the Top 3 method, we have one of the 2 or 3 easiest groups. It'll be a crying shame if we don't get out of it.
- Anyway you look at it, Italy has the easiest group.
- Group G looks to be the toughest. Even though it doesn't have the same quality as groups in the past anointed as the "Group of Death" right after a WC Draw (2006-Italy, USA, Czech Rep, Ghana ; 2002-England, Sweden, Argentina, Nigeria)
- The second toughest group seems to be Group H. Spain should make it out of it (unless they have one of their epic WC failures). The battle for #2 will be really interesting.
- I think the most intriguing group to watch is going to be Group A with the host and 3 really good teams in France, Mexico, and Uruguay. I can't wait to see which team is going to get the great FIFA screw-job to send South Africa into the second round. I hope it is France.
Discuss.
PS: Please forgive me if I made any McClurian errors in my calculations.