Some thoughts on the predictions (using a look back)

diehard4dawgs · Aug 30, 2009

I am usually pretty pessimistic (still am), but looking at all of the "expert" preseason predictions and odds, you would think that we are set up to be the worst team since SMU came off of the death penalty. I decided to look back at last year just to see where all of this is coming from. I noticed a couple of things that I think people are overlooking. I think that we can all agree that there is no way that Mullen's offense can be worse than Croom's, in fact I believe that we will be 10 points per game better than last year. Looking at the results from last year: If our offense was simply 2 points better per game, we would have been a 6 win team. If our offense had been 10 points better, we would have been a seven win team (maybe 8 depending on LSU outcome). So I just can't see where all of this crap is coming from. If you look at the odds and predictions, we should get blown out by Vandy, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky (two wins and two one point losses from last year). I just don't see any way we will be as bad as advertised.
 
 (edited for spelling)

diehard4dawgs · Aug 30, 2009

I am usually pretty pessimistic (still am), but looking at all of the "expert" preseason predictions and odds, you would think that we are set up to be the worst team since SMU came off of the death penalty. I decided to look back at last year just to see where all of this is coming from. I noticed a couple of things that I think people are overlooking. I think that we can all agree that there is no way that Mullen's offense can be worse than Croom's, in fact I believe that we will be 10 points per game better than last year. Looking at the results from last year: If our offense was simply 2 points better per game, we would have been a 6 win team. If our offense had been 10 points better, we would have been a seven win team (maybe 8 depending on LSU outcome). So I just can't see where all of this crap is coming from. If you look at the odds and predictions, we should get blown out by Vandy, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky (two wins and two one point losses from last year). I just don't see any way we will be as bad as advertised.
 
 (edited for spelling)

topbulldawg · Aug 30, 2009

I do agree that most people overlook the fact that there is no way our offense can get worse then last year, so that alone should make us better. I doubt we will be 10 points better next season, probably closer to 6 or 7.

ckDOG · Aug 30, 2009

We can be a 10pt/game better team this year and still end up with the same results this year. We'll be a "better" team by the end of the season, but I don't expect to see it in the W column until next year.

thunderclap · Aug 30, 2009

be noticeably better statistically, but still be 4-8.

paindonthurt_ · Aug 30, 2009

Thats why last year hurt so bad. Probably the more favorable schedule for some time passed and to come.

I do agree though that we will be noticeably better.

I think 5-7 and am hoping for 6-6.

thatsbaseball · Aug 30, 2009

to coach Sherrill`s talent that he didn`t run off. I`m not sure we`re in as good a shape talent wise or staff wise on defense as we were after Croom was hired. Ellis Johnson got the defense on solid ground and it was solid enough that "cheese" was able to ride the momentum for a year after Ellis left. I think our defense was good enough - long enough that some of yall are taking good defense for granted. It may take scoring a lot more than a couple of more points a game to be competitive.

jackstefano · Aug 30, 2009

especially in the secondary? I think your offense will look competent.

slickdawg · Aug 30, 2009

It will come down to the offensive line, which Croom did a piss poor job of recruiting for. Dixon/Ducre/Stallworth have nowhere to run when linbackers are in the backfield all the time, leaving Lee and Relf to run for their lives.

thatsbaseball · Aug 30, 2009

in SEC history(offensively for sure) and we`re all optomistic about our future BUT damn there are a lot of folks taking the defense for granted.

therightway · Aug 30, 2009

I would have to say that we should not even count La Tech in this since there is no way we should have lost to them and to sound like crooms blaming the previous administration, Larry should never have tried to save a few dollars and fly in the day of the game. Therefore 2 points would have gotten us to 7 wins easy. I would venture to say the the Budwiser Shootout cost us 3 wins.

jackstefano · Aug 30, 2009

thatsbaseball said:
we're coming off the worst coach possibly in SEC history

perhaps you remember this gentleman:

thatsbaseball · Aug 30, 2009

maroonmania · Aug 30, 2009

is that Croom couldn't carry Orgeron's jock strap in the recruiting department and the talent O left behind is the difference in the two teams right now.

Bulldog Backer · Aug 30, 2009

diehard4dawgs said:
I am usually pretty pessimistic (still am), but looking at all of the "expert" preseason predictions and odds, you would think that we are set up to be the worst team since SMU came off of the death penalty. I decided to look back at last year just to see where all of this is coming from. I noticed a couple of things that I think people are overlooking. I think that we can all agree that there is no way that Mullen's offense can be worse than Croom's, in fact I believe that we will be 10 points per game better than last year. Looking at the results from last year: If our offense was simply 2 points better per game, we would have been a 6 win team. If our offense had been 10 points better, we would have been a seven win team (maybe 8 depending on LSU outcome). So I just can't see where all of this crap is coming from. If you look at the odds and predictions, we should get blown out by Vandy, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky (two wins and two one point losses from last year). I just don't see any way we will be as bad as advertised. 
 
 (edited for spelling)

...alone, we are at least 3 points better than last year. All the offense must do is score one TD more to be 10 points better.

xxxWalkTheDawg · Aug 30, 2009

jackstefano said:
thatsbaseball said:

we're coming off the worst coach possibly in SEC history

Click to expand...

perhaps you remember this gentleman:

Sure we remember him... he's the one that left your new coach with talent. On the other hand.. the truly worst coach in SEC history left our new coach with a fraction of what you need to be competetive in the SEC. That and a few worn out golf cart tires.

jackstefano · Aug 30, 2009

yeah, i've been sort of loathe to say that, but y'all are kind of screwed until at least 2011. a few months ago i thought y'all would go 7-5 this year based on coaching alone. then i looked at your schedule. then i looked at the losses on defense. croom did put together most of the last class and should get credit for that, but you'll see no real dividends on that class for a couple years. hey, at least OM will probably come down to earth in '11 with all the guys we'll lose after next season. it's not like OM will be top 10 going into '11. i'd be happy with 7 wins that year.

thatsbaseball · Aug 30, 2009

can you honestly name one thing with a straight face that Croom did better than Ogeron. Other than quote Winston Churchill.

drunkernhelldawg · Aug 30, 2009

I agree that it will come down to the o line. I think we'll get decent quarterback play this season. I'll be amazed if we improve our average points by any more than 4. That would put us at 21, which probably ain't bad with an SEC schedule.

We do have a chance to start 3-0 before we jump into the buzzsaw. I still wonder how we'll react if it happens.

Personally, I think we'll improve our average points by 2 points. And I think that is pretty good.

jackstefano · Aug 30, 2009

rebville · Aug 30, 2009

That's fo sho

SLUdog · Aug 30, 2009

as a head coach. Would Coach O have done that last year? maybe. O did recruit much better.

msudawg12 · Aug 31, 2009

but that wont matter with half of the teams we're playing compared to last year

dawgstudent · Aug 31, 2009

he did better.

Some thoughts on the predictions (using a look back)

Redshirt

Redshirt

Freshman

All-American

Redshirt

All-Conference

All-American

Redshirt

Redshirt

All-American

Redshirt

Redshirt

All-American

Senior

Redshirt

Redshirt

Redshirt

All-American

Redshirt

Redshirt

Redshirt

Redshirt

Senior

Heisman