Something called the HWRF thinks..

[Xenomorph]

...there will be a 155 mph hurricane in the gulf Sunday morning. Maybe the hysteria won't commence in earnest until after the games:

 

[Xenomorph]

...there will be a 155 mph hurricane in the gulf Sunday morning. Maybe the hysteria won't commence in earnest until after the games:

 

[lawdawg02]

looks like i may go to destin after all. just can't come back thru hattiesburg.

</p>

 

[Goat Holder]

and are predicting it to take a huge right turn. My question is, how the hell can they predict that? Nobody predicted it to hook south now they act like they know what it is doing? I ain't buying it. It could possibly hit Mexico.

 

[cowbell9]

....but I'm sayin it hits the yuku-tan pennensula

 

[Xenomorph]

*

 

[MSUCE99]

Something called the XTRP is our best case scenario.

Boy whoever came up with that one is not afraid to go against the grain, are they? Somehow I don't think Panama is too worried though.

 

[Ivehadbetter]

It looks like most models have shifted the projected path West with the exception of GFDL.

 

[Shmuley]

nm

 

[Xenomorph]

....hmm.. it makes me think extrapolate. Like maybe extrapolation. And that leads me to believe XTRP means if that sucker continues heading in the same direction then that's where it's going.

/justa hunch

 

[ScoobaDawg]

New runs of the HWRF and GDFL will be out around 1:30, will be interesting to see the new changes.
So much of where it goes depends on how fast it gets to the gulf of mexico.
it ain't going to mexico, one major reason because of the new disturbance 96l that popped up this morning down in the BOC of mexico.

 

[ScoobaDawg]

XTRP: Not a model. Short for Extrapolation. Dead reckoning plot of a storm if it kept in a straight line, with no other forces acting upon it.

 

[dudehead]

It looks like most models have shifted the projected path West with the exception of GFDL.

Which sucks for NOLA - that westerly path sets them up for the easterly right hook of that storm that will throw surge way up the pipes. I hope it keeps drifting left...

 

[ScoobaDawg]

 

[MSU Moral Victory]

and creates panic to cash in on batteries and pop-tarts.

 

[slickdawg]

If you watch the model runs in a time loop, you'll see where an area of high pressure centered over Florida erodes and Gustav makes his right turn. I still believe between to Atchafalaya basin and Pensacola are at the greatest risk.

It is normal for models to do the windshield wiper - left, then right, then back left. What's important is that they stay within 100 miles or so from their previous runs. That's when you can tell that the model has a good grasp of atmospheric conditions. The GFDL gets a lot of respect from the NHC, it usually performs pretty well.

Also, discount 06Z and 18Z model runs, they use input from the 00Z and 12Z runs and are not quite as accurate. You'll practically never see the NHC base anything off of the 06Z or 18Z model runs.

 

[TR.sixpack]

and they've disagreed all week long.

 

[slickdawg]

NOGAPS is pretty inconsistent.

What's surprising is that NOAA's homegrown GFS barely recognizes Gus.

 

[1msudawg]

</p>154 knots = 177.2 mph... dayum!!

 

[ScoobaDawg]

I hope not, that's the one with a MS/AL border landing, but it is considerably less stronger than the HWRF run (ridiculous 200mph, and 894mb in the middle of the gulf)

Kinda interesting.. Jamaica has several radio stations streaming online, and im listening to the news reports and preping by the locals.
Gotta love the accents too.. expecting someone to scream out.."jamaica got a bobsled team man" or put some bob marley on.

 

[ScoobaDawg]

 

[TR.sixpack]

[No message]

 

[TR.sixpack]

I only know what I hear on the radio.

 

[Xenomorph]

Usually you think the safest place to be in the forecast is dead center of the track when you're 5 days out because it never goes where they initially think. But this is the 4th day in a row the GFDL has put a major hurricane on the MS coast. The others have moved significantly back and forth, but this one has only moved from NO to Mobile and now it's back square on Pascagoula:

Press Fwd or +1 to animate

 

[saltybulldog]

so far this year. I dont know if that means anything. Like alot of other things, the internet has made everyone a meteorologist.

I will predict this. If this <17>er hits the MS Coast and screws my house up again, I will be taking Brutius' line and getting the **** out of here. My mental well-being can not handle this crap again.

 

[slickdawg]

Usually you think the safest place to be in the forecast is dead center of the track when you're 5 days out because it never goes where they initially think. But this is the 4th day in a row the GFDL has put a major hurricane on the MS coast. The others have moved significantly back and forth, but this one has only moved from NO to Mobile and now it's back square on Pascagoula:

Press Fwd or +1 to animate

Consistency is what you look for in tropical models. The GFDL appears to have a pretty good grasp on this. For example, on the other end, UKMET was at Tampa for one run, and Lake Charles for the next run.

 

[dudehead]

Masters at WU: "A NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft is scheduled to drop a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico today to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data will feed directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF)."

And more - it's a parade:

 

[Xenomorph]

...there is good agreement among the other models shown here, with the GFDL being drastically different. Surely the others have it right. Oh... and the yellow line? The NGDFL?.. That would pretty much be a kill shot for New Orleans.

 

[saltybulldog]

If it lands anywhere between the black and the blue at CAT 2 plus strength a good portion of MS coast will still get **** on.

And you are right. Unless something changes NO's pooch is screwed.

 

[Jackdragbean]

Before he leaves office, he wants to finish the job he started during Katrina. He's sending 3 times the dynamite he used last time. The levees will break and N.O. will finally be taken off the map and Bush will put in oil wells. It's his retirement plan you know.

 

[TR.sixpack]

Considering no one thought it would hit Jamaica, I'd say something will probably change.