Soucie's Playoff Projections thoughts
- Thread starter FballDaddy
- Start date
Going into the Season most would have viewed this as the Title game. I wonder if this seeding is based on Cary losing to Naperville Central this week?!?
Gurnee to EVILLE in round two is about as far of a drive that can happen in 8A.
Could you imagine a Zion at Marion/Carbondale game? That would suck!
Could you imagine a Zion at Marion/Carbondale game? That would suck!
Right? 6A CG potentiality losing a non conference game to 8A NC would pit them against Phillips?
Yes, that would be correct. I was just checking and if CG goes undefeated, they will end up with more playoff points than Antioch and Kenwood. They would then be the #1 seed.
@Catch--22 thread is if the playoffs started TODAY, regardless of future outcomes.
@Souc has his projections built in and based on those outcomes, what he has it what he thinks will shake out.
No mistake the projection is based on his assumptions which impacted which teams are in which classes. The other projection is if the season ended today and week 9 did not happen. Bubble teams like Rice can be in 7A or 8A and some teams that are in these projections could be bounced.
Just my 2 cents
Since the seeding is not 1 thru 32 in 1A to 6A I would like to see phillips in the south bracket as I think there would be a high likelyhood thst the title game would be Phillips vs CG/PR. I know there are a few other teams in the mix such as Richards etc that could also be favorites to make thanksgiving game but I would hate to see a round 2 Cary Grove/Phillips game when a game like that should really be semi finals or finals type of game.
So, that would imply he assumes CG is losing this week if Antioch is the top seed in the North.
A possible quarterfinal rematch from last year in the 2nd round between Batavia and LWW would be a treat. Tough draw for the Warriors if these projections hold true.
Soucie,
Using record and points listed on the Playoff Outlook it looks like 8A has 29-31 automatics (automatics are 5 wins and currently 32 points or better), 7A has 29-31 automatics, 6A has 29-31 automatics, 5A has 25-28 automatics, 4A has 30-31 automatics, 3A has 27-30 automatics, 2A has 32-35 automatics, 1A 26-28 automatics. Does that possibly mean the bracket can bump down towards 5A and 2A/3A bump up into 4A......like similar to last year? Brother Rice and Conant could bump down into 7A. Dekalb and Rockford East down into 6A. Dunlap, Kaneland, Antioch into 5A. Rochester, Taylorville and Chicago Clemente up into 5A. So on. Bracket is top heavy, very thin at 5A, with full brackets at 4A and 2A.
Using record and points listed on the Playoff Outlook it looks like 8A has 29-31 automatics (automatics are 5 wins and currently 32 points or better), 7A has 29-31 automatics, 6A has 29-31 automatics, 5A has 25-28 automatics, 4A has 30-31 automatics, 3A has 27-30 automatics, 2A has 32-35 automatics, 1A 26-28 automatics. Does that possibly mean the bracket can bump down towards 5A and 2A/3A bump up into 4A......like similar to last year? Brother Rice and Conant could bump down into 7A. Dekalb and Rockford East down into 6A. Dunlap, Kaneland, Antioch into 5A. Rochester, Taylorville and Chicago Clemente up into 5A. So on. Bracket is top heavy, very thin at 5A, with full brackets at 4A and 2A.
Everything I’ve read from Souice looks like he is projecting that NC will beat CG Friday. We will wait and see. I wouldn’t make that bet
Agreed. To his defense, and like he states...these are projections. There are a ton of impactful games this weekend that can effect the bracket. NC and CG is "pick em" game.
Two HUGE games on Friday night for the North bracket of 6a. Cary-Grove vs. NC and PR vs. Crystal Lake South. Both games are toss-ups since all 4 are quality teams and all are in the Playoffs but will be the main dictator as to how the bracket unfolds.
Phillips wanted to play Pickerington and Simeon in the regular season, so they get to live with the two loses. Probably wouldn't be the possibility of playing CG in the 2nd round if they were to go 9-0. But they won't go 9-0. I personally do not know if there's the possibility of them moving south based on the outcome of the games this weekend.
I thought 6 wins was the automatic bid, 5 wins just qualifies the team for the playoffs based on their points. I think if you do that the point total to qualify is then a bit higher. Also don't they stack all the team based on wins then points to find the top 256 then seed them based upon school size and points. So I don't understand all the people trying to see if a team will be in a lower division. The school size is the constant and they have a bit of control on who they play but what is not in a teams control is how their opponents do the rest of the season and what everyone else does during the season.
IT IS WHAT IT IS
High School football, enjoy there are going to be some great games throughout the classes and if you can catch a game that isn't your home town team even better because you can just enjoy the atmosphere without any emotional ties and then its really fun if you really like football.
The pick the 256 based on wins then points. They stack them in division based solely on enrollment (with the modifiers for non-boundary and success). So, one team in or out that is a surprise can push a team up or down a division if they are the largest or smallest school in that class. That's why Soucie lists biggest and smallest in his lineups.
And, you don't understand? It's pretty simple....some divisions are harder than others. We'd all love to altruistic, but we're often not. We want to find the best path to the finals.
One of the teams with a 5-4 record below them to not qualify and substitute for a team above them. They are last team in 6A, so one team is all it takes... it could easily happen.
I understand completely, but I can tell you in complete confidence that the life lessons learned and relationships form while playing football through high school and college were way more meaningful then the championships that were earned. I won a state championship, a state runner-up and a semifinal loss in high school (and one year didn't even make the playoffs, which was bad because it was the first time for the school) and two conference championships in college and the off the field things were what I remember most.
I hope your son is having a fun season and enjoying every minute because when it is gone he will miss the time with his brothers on the field. Unfortunately, these boys may be a dying breed because of a lot of people don't want to look at all the positives that football provides young men and I am worried for the sport because it is so much more then concussions and all the negative news. Coaches are aware of the situation and are coaching better and the equipment is so much better now then even 5 years ago let alone 20-30 years ago when many of the CTE cases started playing.
Sorry to be long winded I just hope more parents would look at the good things football brings to the table. I agree the winning is definitely the best but just want to say even all the players on teams that didn't make the playoffs will have learned something about themselves.
Football is a great sport played tackle for 18 years starting from middle school and never once did I think to not have my son play.
We all love football that way. That's why we're here on a preps chat room. I don't think anybody is countering that fact. I'm just saying it's perfectly normal to be inquisitive as to which bracket a team is in and what their path is, which you seemed to talk down to someone because they asked about.
Blasphemy! You bite your tongue, their DC is a defensive savant.
I think it is more likely more teams move up from 5a then go down, but it would not be very hard.
Agreed. I guess my original post was to point out the error of saying 5-4 with 32 points is the cutoff in 8A which simply is not the case and then I rambled in from there.
If Huntley loses to Dundee-Crown neither team will make it in despite both being 5-4 because they will not have enough points because cutoff will be 36-37 points and if Huntley wins the are in automatically with the 6 wins.
I felt the original post was ignoring all the teams in 7A on down that had 6 or more wins or 5 wins with more points in saying 32 was the cutoff. An 5-4 1A team with 36 points would be slotted ahead of an 5-4 8A team with 35. So class doesn’t matter when deciding the 256. IHSA playoff outlook is misleading with how they present it. Soucie does a great job
If DC wins...they are in. They already have 34 points....will pick up 4 more points. Huntley is bubble......may only have 36.
Unfortunately the playoff outlook is already counting the 4 points. The outlook on IHSA is including all the games by each team already The 34 is the max they will have unless they lose then they would be at 35, but then it doesn’t even matter. Unless the cutoff line comes down from the 37 or 36 Soucie has projected and they get in on tiebreakers
I think Huntley has to win to get in because 5-4 with 32 isn’t going to cut it and DC is on the bubble with a win and needs some help
Playoff from week 9 are not added until after the games are played. They will end up with 37 or 38 if they beat Huntley tonight.
Well then I don’t understand what IHSA is doing then. From what I understand your points are the total wins by all a teams opponents and if you click on DC link in the outlook the only way they get to the 34 is to include the five wins that Huntley already has otherwise they would be at 29 through week 8. Doesn’t help them having 0-8,1-7 and a 2-8 team as opponents
Yes just looked at the outlook again and the 34 is the amount of points they would have with all 9 games. So DC needs to win and hope the cutoff line moves down after tonight some.