Source: Florida to be left out of the NC game
- Thread starter 615dawg
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Dawg725
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The AP Poll and the BCS poll are mutually exclusive. Florida was ranked #4 in the BCS poll up till last night.
Now, I do not agree with 615 or his "source". They beat the #1 in the BCS. Surely they will move up two spots to go to the NC game. Who else would it be? Texas and OU? From the same conference? I think not.
Now, I do not agree with 615 or his "source". They beat the #1 in the BCS. Surely they will move up two spots to go to the NC game. Who else would it be? Texas and OU? From the same conference? I think not.
If that happens, I'm pretty sure the BCS championship game tv ratings will take a huge hit. I, for one, don't have any interest in watching a rematch or 2 teams from the same conf. playing for the championship. I would still feel the same way if it were 2 SEC teams. That's what makes watching these bowl games so desirable is the fact that you get to see how teams from different conf. match up. To me, Florida should arguably be ranked #1 after knocking off the #1 team and you factor in that Texas didn't even win their conf. championship.
the only way Florida doesn't get in is if they do NOT pick up at least 40 of Alabama's first place votes in the coaches poll. Take it for what its worth, but I'd assume he/ESPN have the system figured out in regard to BCS calculations. With that said, it would be wrong in every way if Florida did not end up in the NC game.
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Dawg725
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Coaches Poll:
<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 1.</td> <td align="left">Oklahoma (31)</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1482</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 2.</td> <td align="left">Florida (26)</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1481</td> <td>4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 3.</td> <td align="left">Texas (4)</td> <td>11-1</td> <td>1408</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 4.</td> <td align="left">USC</td> <td>11-1</td> <td>1309</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 4.</td> <td align="left">Alabama</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1309</td> <td>1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 1.</td> <td align="left">Oklahoma (31)</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1482</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 2.</td> <td align="left">Florida (26)</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1481</td> <td>4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 3.</td> <td align="left">Texas (4)</td> <td>11-1</td> <td>1408</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 4.</td> <td align="left">USC</td> <td>11-1</td> <td>1309</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="center"> <td style="width: 15px;" align="left"> 4.</td> <td align="left">Alabama</td> <td>12-1</td> <td>1309</td> <td>1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
I plugged in the numbers assuming an average of a 2.5 spot jump in all computer polls for Florida and a 1 spot jump for Texas.
Using these numbers, Florida would need to be at least .04 ahead of Texas in the Harris poll. Basically, that means they would have to be one spot ahead, on average, on all Harris ballots.
Using the Coaches' poll numbers that were just released, Florida went from .007 behind Texas to .048 ahead. A similar jump in the Harris numbers would put them in.
Let's say that Florida makes just a 2 spot jump in the computer polls on average, they would then need about .05 on Texas and that would be more than one spot ahead of Texas on average on all Harris ballots. They may not be do-able.
Anyway, I think the margin is going to be .006 or less either way. If forced to bet, I would bet on Florida to get the position, but it doesn't appear to be much more than a 50/50 thing now.
Using these numbers, Florida would need to be at least .04 ahead of Texas in the Harris poll. Basically, that means they would have to be one spot ahead, on average, on all Harris ballots.
Using the Coaches' poll numbers that were just released, Florida went from .007 behind Texas to .048 ahead. A similar jump in the Harris numbers would put them in.
Let's say that Florida makes just a 2 spot jump in the computer polls on average, they would then need about .05 on Texas and that would be more than one spot ahead of Texas on average on all Harris ballots. They may not be do-able.
Anyway, I think the margin is going to be .006 or less either way. If forced to bet, I would bet on Florida to get the position, but it doesn't appear to be much more than a 50/50 thing now.
more voters last week had Texas ahead of OU, but they changed that this week. Apparently that matters.
in the human polls. The computer polls are not complete yet, but he claims to have seen two of them and they are about where expected (Florida making up 1 spot). They need to make up at least 2 spots and maybe 3. Remember the lowest computer poll (and the highest) are thrown out.
It's going to be a very slim margin either way. He's backed off of the definite Texas-Oklahoma but still says it could very well happen.
It's going to be a very slim margin either way. He's backed off of the definite Texas-Oklahoma but still says it could very well happen.
the BCS computer can manipulated and, to keep themselves out of hotwater, Florida will be in the game regardless of what the computer says. However, I think the media would rather Texas be in the game for other reasons.
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Dawg725
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MSUCostanza said:
Mutually Exclusive
When judging for the 1st and 2nd place in the BCS for the NC Game, the AP poll is incompatible with the BCS in determining who is placed in what game. Just because one says one thing, does not mean the other means the same. They are exclusive "events" if you would, from one another.
Is the Harris Poll updated? Assuming no major changes in the Harris Poll, I have done the # crunching and agree if Florida only moves up 1 spot in the computer rankings, they might not make it. However, I would be surprised if they do not move up more then that since they beat Bama.
If the Harris and AP polls mirror one another, Florida will need to stay within .092 of Texas in the computer composite average. That is something like 2.3 spots, on average, in each computer poll.
Last week, Florida trailed Texas by 3 spots, on average, in each computer poll. I think Florida will make up that difference, but it will be closer than it should be (probably .006-.010 points).
Just as an aside, my understanding (and I may be remembering incorrectly) is that the NCAA required that no computer rankings be used that factored scoring margin. That is so stupid. When trying to create an accurate product, you don't eliminate variables. Anyway, this is playing a major factor in Florida's struggles in the computer polls.
Last week, Florida trailed Texas by 3 spots, on average, in each computer poll. I think Florida will make up that difference, but it will be closer than it should be (probably .006-.010 points).
Just as an aside, my understanding (and I may be remembering incorrectly) is that the NCAA required that no computer rankings be used that factored scoring margin. That is so stupid. When trying to create an accurate product, you don't eliminate variables. Anyway, this is playing a major factor in Florida's struggles in the computer polls.
Even using the definition you linked, you're wrong.
Mutually exclusive means:
Let's go to wiki...
You're confusing unrelated with mutually exclusive. Take a stats class.
Mutually exclusive means:
The AP poll occurs every week. So do the BCS rankings. The existence of one doesn't exclude the other from happening.
Let's go to wiki...
Since the AP poll and the BCS rankings occur at the same time, they cannot be mutually exclusive.
You're confusing unrelated with mutually exclusive. Take a stats class.
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