I welcome fans from other teams to come over and smack talk back and forth or just chat about the game. That said, I personally don't have a world of concerns for this game. It's the first game of the year, the players are excited to get onto the field and hit some guys in different uniforms, so I'm sure Southern Miss will absolutely get the respect that they're gunning for after last season.
All that said, the reasons I'm not concerned:
I know who your offensive coordinator is, a lot more than I'd like to know. He's as bad of a playcaller as I can remember. We got worse in many offensive categories, and he made our QB regress enormously with his whole "stand in the pocket, don't leave the pocket, hold the ball for 5 seconds and launch it downfield" offensive philosophy.
Maybe that offensive philosophy will work alright with Nick Mullens, and in C-USA, but it can't work in the SEC. Don't care if you have the Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas offensive line in front of you, when your QB is told that he shouldn't leave the pocket under any circumstances, and to hold the ball long enough for your receivers to go long on every play, you're going to get smashed by the pass rush.
Probably important to note that as it pertains to the game because Kentucky is going to be the 2nd most athletic and physical team that your team will see this season (behind LSU). To my understanding, the Southern Miss defense will struggle against the run in C-USA. That doesn't fare well against UK, who legitimately has one of the best backfields in the SEC overall. Think the problem that your team will face is mostly attributed to being undersized, and not quite as athletic as UK. Our receivers have an average height of nearly 4 inches above your CB's, our offensive linemen roughly outsize your defensive line by about an average of 50 pounds, and your linebackers are only between 215-230 pounds (230ish being the heaviest that I've seen). The physical comparison between the linebackers and the tight ends is pretty stark as well. From what I gather, your linebackers are about an average of 5'11-6'1, weighing between 215-230 as I've said. One of them will line up against CJ Conrad (One of our two Freshman All-Americans from last season), who is about 6'5, 250. Really versatile tight end.
On the flip side, Southern Miss has a pretty balanced offense in terms of weapons, but it lost its share of big contributors. Southern Miss isn't going to be able to run offense like Dawson did at UK last year and expect success though. Aside from the fact that the whole "Sit in the pocket for 5 seconds and launch it downfield" offensive scheme is just asinine, your team will probably struggle to get it downfield against our secondary (which is also supposed to be one of the best secondaries in the SEC), and this is all assuming that Dawson doesn't force Mullens to sit in the pocket long enough to get sacked.
We bring back 3 starters in our secondary who were true freshmen last year (and had the 28th best pass defense in the country, and closed out the season with the 3rd best pass defense in the nation in the final month). The secondary will have 6'4 Chris Westry, who is our other Freshman All-American. Then there's 6'3 Derrick Baity, our field corner and the technician of the group, and at safety is the best player on either side of the ball for UK, Mike Edwards.
We have a pretty young but talented linebacking corps, led by Courtney Love (not the one who killed Cobain). Reports are that they're coming along, and can generate a good pass rush (something that we lacked last season) for our 3-4 defense. Your team will likely see 6'3, 255# Denzil Ware (WDE/OLB), 6'3, 230# Eli Brown (weakside linebacker) 6'2, 245# Courtney Love (MLB), 6'5, 240# Josh Allen (strongside linebacker). The backups that you'll likely see are 6'3, 220# Kobie Walker (OLB, safety, nickel) 6'4, 240# De'Niro Laster (OLB, WDE), 6'2, 230# Jordan Jones (weakside linebacker), and 6'2, 242# Nico Firios (MLB).
On the defensive line, we don't have a ton of depth. Definitely our biggest concern, but it's not a small group, and there's some good athleticism along the front 3. Our starters will be 6'5, 300# Courtney Miggins (SDE). He's the pass rusher of those 3, really athletic guy, and according to the staff, he's absolutely our best lineman this year. Our nose-tackle is 6'7 350# Matt Elam. He actually played at 380 last season, but lost 30 pounds of fat (and the potbelly that he had) since spring, and has apparently lost another 10 pounds or so since the start of fall camp, so he may line up across from your center at a pretty lean 335 pounds. Finally is 6'3, 303# Adrian Middleton (DT). He's the new starter for our d-line. He and Matt Elam are run stoppers, but you shouldn't see much in the way of a pass rush from them, which I can live with in a 3-4 defense. The backups that you'll see for those guys are 6'5, 320# Tymere Dubose (NT, DT), who is a freak athlete and has a very athletic frame, especially for that size. 6'5, 260# Alvonte Bell (SDE, DT), and 6'5, 270# Kengera Daniel (SDE). There's no experience among the back-ups, only the starters have actual game experience, which is the primary concern for our defensive line.
In short, Southern Miss is probably going to struggle mightily against the Kentucky offense, which has a lot of elite playmakers in it, and a very strong, very deep interior offensive line. You all should score some points, but I think your passing game isn't going to be very effective considering your offensive coordinator, and our pass defense, which is likely going to be a strength. Ito Smith is going to need to have a huge game against a lot of bigger, faster athletes for Southern Miss to win this game, imo.
Would guess 38-17 Kentucky.
