Special teams question

[jcdawgman18]

I feel very confident saying Graves had no chance of making the 52 yard field goal from the hash (which is really closer to 58-59 yards) into the wind Saturday night simply based on distance, so giving Bell a shot was the right call once we were in the situation. I'd have put Bell's chances around 35-45% of making the kick, which is obviously a lot better chance than a Hail Mary to the end zone (don't act like pass interference ever gets called on those, the refs want no part of it).

The real problem was the delay of game. I feel pretty confident we could have run QB power to the left and picked up two yards and centered the ball for a 45 yard field goal, but even if we get stopped for no gain but center the ball you're looking at a straight-on 47 yard field goal. That's not just about the 5 yards you don't lose, it's also about the center of the field versus the hash which cuts off 5-6 yards at that point. At that point, I'd have given Graves a 60-70% chance of hitting that kick based on the way he'd been hitting them all season, maybe even better than that.

We can be up in arms about using Bell to kick the field goal but the real issue we should be upset about is the delay of game.

ETA: No idea why it shows me replying where it does. Just clicked the "Reply to Thread".

 

[Lucky Dawg]

100% agree that the real screw-up was not centering the ball and taking the delay of game. That said, you are being awfully generous with a 35-45% chance - my original point was that Bell is only 44% from 30+. He'd never attempted a 50+ until Saturday, so if you start from that baseline and work your way down, it's not hard to see back-to-back misses coming. Hate it for Bell because he never should have been put in that position in the first place, especially given that he hasn't had an attempt in well over a year. And I still question if he was able to warm-up. I don't think they saw that coming.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

100% agree that the real screw-up was not centering the ball and taking the delay of game. That said, you are being awfully generous with a 35-45% chance - my original point was that Bell is only 44% from 30+. He'd never attempted a 50+ until Saturday, so if you start from that baseline and work your way down, it's not hard to see back-to-back misses coming. Hate it for Bell because he never should have been put in that position in the first place, especially given that he hasn't had an attempt in well over a year. And I still question if he was able to warm-up. I don't think they saw that coming.

I think you are still skewing the stats with what the original argument was about. Him being the "long" range guy. No doubt he has been bad overall but more about 2013 than 2012. But you are using the mid range 30-39 yarders, which was always the knock on him, to show how bad he is from a long distance. He is also 2-3 for his career from 47 yards which are his career longs. And he was 4-7 from over 40 in 2012 and 1-5 in 2013. A career 42% from long range which is about his avg overall. Not good. Not saying that but his mid range was bad, heck Westerfield had mid range issues his last year 7-11 and was 1-2 for over 40 in 2000. He was better in 1999, 9-13 for 40+ yarders including a 51 yarder which was great but even he missed 1 inside of 30 and another from 30-39 yards. Brent Smith was good kicker for us but in 2002 he was 2-5 from 40-49 but 2-3 over 50 including a 53 yarder. Go figure. Bell made both of his 47 yarders in 2012 and missed one at the end of the first half against Kentucky in 2013.

I don't like the play, delay of game and attempt, I thought it had about 20% chance of making from that distance and some wind issues. Even set up in the middle with him, it was a low percentage shot.

 

[Lucky Dawg]

I'm not trying to slander him, just stating facts - he's 42% for his career from 40+, which is basically consistent with the stat I quoted from 30+, so there's no need to split hairs. Frankly, I think Bell deserves a damn medal for taking the verbal abuse he did from our "fans" in 2013 and still continuing to run out on the field and kick the laces off of punts and kickoffs. I don't know many 18-22 year olds who have the constitution to do that.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I'm not trying to slander him, just stating facts - he's 42% for his career from 40+, which is basically consistent with the stat I quoted from 30+, so there's no need to split hairs. Frankly, I think Bell deserves a damn medal for taking the verbal abuse he did from our "fans" in 2013 and still continuing to run out on the field and kick the laces off of punts and kickoffs. I don't know many 18-22 year olds who have the constitution to do that.

Especially after the A & M game. It was bad but he actually came out and finished the year respectfully punting the ball after that game.

 

[Junction John]

First sign of a troll trying too hard.*