It takes two weeks for the numbers to even spit anything decent out, but it will take until the first week in October before anything that resembles an actual rating. I'm very number heavy, no opinion.
But my opinion on this year is simple:
Oklahoma has the easiest road in a long time to go from start to finish #1. The Big 12 is reeling. Toughest game is going to be A&M. Alabama is in my opinion the best team in the country, but has what, seven preseason top 25 teams on the schedule? That trip to Penn State is going to be tough. If they get through that, they still have to go to Florida, Arkansas, and gasp, Mississippi State in tough road games. LSU in Tuscaloosa isn't going to be fun, either.
My guess is that this year will break the streak of SEC national championships. The SEC is just too tough. I actually wouldn't be surprised if no one gets through the SEC this year with less than two losses. Its that tough.
If I were to pick two the preseason top five teams that had the best chance to play for the title - I'd pick Oklahoma and Florida State. Not because they are the best two teams, but they have the best chance to beat the system.
Extend it to the top 10, and teams like Stanford stick out - they could run the table. Boise is in the best position they have ever been in, the problem is their team isn't as good, and I wouldn't be surprised if they started 2-3. I think Georgia, Nevada and Fresno can beat them early.
Wisconsin in the Big Ten is interesting as well.
Team out of nowhere that could play for the national title? I'll go with another Big Ten team - Michigan State. Their schedule is beautiful for a run. One decent game in September (at Notre Dame), A tougher October with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska. If they get out of October with even one loss, they end their season with the bottom of the Big Ten and could quietly take advantage of some tough late season games for other contenders.