With oil below $20/ barrel, is it not a great time to invest heavily into Exxon, etc.? If I'm investing for the Long haul, isn't this a no brainier? I'm asking because I have no brain for this kind of stuff
Stock guys
- Thread starter Grove Sh*tter
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Most of my long term contributions over the last few weeks have gone into Oil. I have some liquid capital in XLE, but it needs to be a longer term play (6+ months).
The OPEC agreement did very little at least to my holdings. There just isn’t enough demand short term to bump up prices right now.
The OPEC agreement did very little at least to my holdings. There just isn’t enough demand short term to bump up prices right now.
Yeah, I think oil stocks would be good. Hard to imagine it price of oil getting much lower. For long term holds, I’d check out some bank stocks too. Bank stocks are dropping now because most banks moved a lot into the loan loss reserve being proactive for hits that likely will come as a result of covid.
Wells Fargo is at close to a 7% dividend yield right now.
Wells Fargo is at close to a 7% dividend yield right now.
what about Delta and Disney? Is there more bottom for Delta? Have I waited too long to buy more Disney?
I have some Disney now. I’m hoping the parks get open sooner rather than later, because they’re rather profitable per the 10K.
I’m worried about seeing Buffett cash out of Delta. But, pretty sure they’re rated “buy” right now from several analyst, because my stock guy pushes them. Marriott too.
I’m worried about seeing Buffett cash out of Delta. But, pretty sure they’re rated “buy” right now from several analyst, because my stock guy pushes them. Marriott too.
I hate oil stocks personally. There are so many variables and most of the control belongs with authoritarian countries. In theory it has to go up... But demand is going to be garbage for a long time. Its hard for companies to shut down production and meet debt levels.
Also, there is long term risk to oil from electric vehicles. Projections show 20-30% of all vehicles will be electric by 2030.
If you want an alternative... Check out timber-lumber-OSB stocks. It's a commodity that's in the dumps...but there is no viable alternative to lumber, plywood, and osb. At least not in North America... Speaking of North America, the commodity is controlled by the US and Canada.. not Saudi, Venezuela, and Russia.
West Frasier, Norboard, Boise Cascade, Weyerhaeuser, and Potlatch are all in play.
Not saying yay or nay, to oil, but I think upside is similar right now only the downside is lower on timber stocks.
Also, there is long term risk to oil from electric vehicles. Projections show 20-30% of all vehicles will be electric by 2030.
If you want an alternative... Check out timber-lumber-OSB stocks. It's a commodity that's in the dumps...but there is no viable alternative to lumber, plywood, and osb. At least not in North America... Speaking of North America, the commodity is controlled by the US and Canada.. not Saudi, Venezuela, and Russia.
West Frasier, Norboard, Boise Cascade, Weyerhaeuser, and Potlatch are all in play.
Not saying yay or nay, to oil, but I think upside is similar right now only the downside is lower on timber stocks.
It's not a no brainier. Avoid XOM if you're looking for an oil major to invest in. I'd go Chevron. Much better balance sheet and sustainable dividend.
I would not have a large exposure to the energy sector, but at these depressed prices it's okay to gain exposure now.
How old are you? If you're young, I'd have no energy exposure or very very little. If your older and need to be very diversified, have no more than 5% of your portfolio in the energy space. I'm in the underweight category too. I'd be about 2.5% energy exposure and if oil does rebound, you'll get back to 5% allocation pretty quick....whenever that rebound comes.
I would not have a large exposure to the energy sector, but at these depressed prices it's okay to gain exposure now.
How old are you? If you're young, I'd have no energy exposure or very very little. If your older and need to be very diversified, have no more than 5% of your portfolio in the energy space. I'm in the underweight category too. I'd be about 2.5% energy exposure and if oil does rebound, you'll get back to 5% allocation pretty quick....whenever that rebound comes.
You say hard to imagine oil going much lower, but in 2016 oil bottomed at $26 and today we're under $20 4 years later.
Most folks aren't good enough to buy the troughs and sell the peaks throughout the 2014-2020 oil secular bear market that is still on going. Energy investing in general have been terrible since 2014. Outside of the divs, it's a tough space. Many of those divs going bye bye too.
Most folks aren't good enough to buy the troughs and sell the peaks throughout the 2014-2020 oil secular bear market that is still on going. Energy investing in general have been terrible since 2014. Outside of the divs, it's a tough space. Many of those divs going bye bye too.
DIS over DAL no doubt about it. Airlines are untouchable in my opinion for investing. Trading is a different story.
They also have no interest rate spreads to make money on anymore. Banks aren't in any danger of failing, but they are broken stocks for sure right now.
GS, MS, JPM would be the ones I would buy for long term though.
GS, MS, JPM would be the ones I would buy for long term though.
No way man. Study their balance sheet and the impairment charges they've been taking and they will likely be making more.
Delta was in a great spot financially before the crisis. They aren’t going anywhere. As for Buffett, he merely reduced his stake from about 11% to 8-9%. He’s still very much in bed with them.
Something to consider about oil stocks.... the global demand for air flights has obviously plummeted. A gigantic number of global companies are learning how to do business without extensive travel. And considering that the crunch on budgets is likely to last for years, I don’t expect to see global travel near the same level as it was for several years and maybe even a decade. The demand for oil is just not going to be there in the coming months/year.
And when the demand does come back, I don’t expect Russia and Saudi to play nice.
And when the demand does come back, I don’t expect Russia and Saudi to play nice.
I agree with this 100%, but there have been massive production cuts, so when demand starts to tick up again, oil even in the mid $30s would make a lot of these stocks go up 20-30%, which would still probably put them 50% at best below their peaks, but this is about starting an oil investment right NOW. NOW is an okay time to gain exposure if you need it, but I would underweight that exposure.
There's certainly some opportunities to trade the oil volatility though.
There's certainly some opportunities to trade the oil volatility though.
This. You're taking a bath on oil stock right now if you've been in for a while, and you have to stay in and hope for the long term rebound. But the old saying is true: real estate is all about location, location, location, and playing the stock market is all about timing, timing, timing.
what are your top 10/12 buying opportunities that you see now and over the next week or two? im thinking a couple of hotel brands, the best looking cruise, a couple of airlines, oil and a few more that took a bath and are seriously undervalued at this point. im looking for a long-term investment, so i can be patient.
I put my list out back on 3/19. That was the time to buy. I wouldn't chase this rally. Those stocks are still the ones I would buy after the market pulls back.
S&P 2,450 would be an optimal buy point in my opinion.
In real time this basket of stocks is up 20.35% assuming each stock was bought with same amount of funds (equal weighted) on 3/19/20.
I think everything I said here still stands, so that should answer your question about the stocks you asked about in your post. I could be wrong. I'm just giving my honest take on it.
My post from 3/19/20:
https://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?210932-Time-to-Buy-stocks&highlight=time+stocks
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S&P 2,450 would be an optimal buy point in my opinion.
In real time this basket of stocks is up 20.35% assuming each stock was bought with same amount of funds (equal weighted) on 3/19/20.
I think everything I said here still stands, so that should answer your question about the stocks you asked about in your post. I could be wrong. I'm just giving my honest take on it.
My post from 3/19/20:
https://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?210932-Time-to-Buy-stocks&highlight=time+stocks
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40. I don't own any single stocks. I'm in mutual funds. I'm looking at 20 year holds. I don't have time or savvy to day trade. I really appreciate your obviously educated input on here. I'm just thinking about trends and discounts and considering some options
Put aside a couple hundred bucks and open a Robinhood account. It's fun if nothing else. Has filled the hole in my life left by the lack of sports gambling.
Come join the SPSTrader league. You get a million dollars to play with and invest however you want... We have 12 right now and only have a 3 day headstart...
https://invstr.onelink.me/49873515?pid=UI&c=PL&af_dp=invstr%3A%2F%2FLEAGUE_EXTERNAL_INVITE/c7eb4c56-11cf-47db-b257-240598ff7609&l=
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Hey nothing wrong with your strategy man. A lot of people struggle with the behavioral aspect of investing. If you can handle your emotions and trust the process, a buy and hold mutual fund strategy will work out just fine for you.
I would never tell someone to go buy individual stocks if they weren't going to pay close attention to the companies they own, but if someone wants to have some "play money," I think that's a good thing. The more people empower themselves in general, the better off they will be. What better way than to empower yourself with investment/money management knowledge. Start slow if you're wanting to start buying some individual stocks. I do no think you need Robinhood to do that though. It's a nifty little app, but the app was down for 2 straight days recently on some very eventful market days. You can join Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc and pay $0 trade commissions as it's become commoditized. You can't buy fractional shares at these firms that I'm aware of, but you can still play with small amounts of money and not get killed on trade fees while you're trying to learn.
I appreciate the compliment as well. I'm very fortunate my career is also one of my passions.
I would never tell someone to go buy individual stocks if they weren't going to pay close attention to the companies they own, but if someone wants to have some "play money," I think that's a good thing. The more people empower themselves in general, the better off they will be. What better way than to empower yourself with investment/money management knowledge. Start slow if you're wanting to start buying some individual stocks. I do no think you need Robinhood to do that though. It's a nifty little app, but the app was down for 2 straight days recently on some very eventful market days. You can join Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc and pay $0 trade commissions as it's become commoditized. You can't buy fractional shares at these firms that I'm aware of, but you can still play with small amounts of money and not get killed on trade fees while you're trying to learn.
I appreciate the compliment as well. I'm very fortunate my career is also one of my passions.
Close. He is sitting at $925k-ish
He is a lucky sucker, always has been it seems. He slide 50% of ALL his holdings into different bonds and 30% into cash when the Dow was around 29,000 first of Feb, as this China Bat Flu BS started flying around.
To say he came out smelling like a rose thus far is an understatement.
He is a lucky sucker, always has been it seems. He slide 50% of ALL his holdings into different bonds and 30% into cash when the Dow was around 29,000 first of Feb, as this China Bat Flu BS started flying around.
To say he came out smelling like a rose thus far is an understatement.
I have gone on searches for monthly divi funds/stocks and found a lot. When the market dropped, I started buying. I looked for sound companies that was consistent with their dividends over the past 5 years. I found some that were $20 before the drop and purchased in the $3s and are now back to $9 with a 10% divi (after the cut due to the market drop was 20% prior). Some with higher.
I Don't like putting stocks or funds out there for people because if something were to happen, people blame you. All I will say is they are out there if you want them. The only thing that changed during this time in my investments is the price and how much more I spent buying.
You are talking OIL and I will mention 1 that I purchased. I will link the yahoo info, the Divi history etc. PVL. I purchased in the .80 range knowing that it was at a MASSIVE low. It tanked in 2015 and has been in the $3 range since then. It pays a 35% divi and I will use that a a drip. 50% of it will purchase more PVL while the other 50% goes towards other funds/stocks. The PE Ratio (TTM) is 5.14. In 2019, it always beat.
The reason I posted this is so people can see, you don't have to be a millionaire to make money in the market. At a 3% gain in the stock price, in 10 years time it will make back to $1.90 (not a lot right but more than a banking account. )... BUT LOOK AT THE DIVI. With $1000 investment and only reinvesting the divi, in 10 year it's worth $18K and you are making 6K per year in dividends. If you add $100 per month to it, you are getting $25K per year in Dividens in year 10.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PVL?p=PVL&.tsrc=fin-srch
I Don't like putting stocks or funds out there for people because if something were to happen, people blame you. All I will say is they are out there if you want them. The only thing that changed during this time in my investments is the price and how much more I spent buying.
You are talking OIL and I will mention 1 that I purchased. I will link the yahoo info, the Divi history etc. PVL. I purchased in the .80 range knowing that it was at a MASSIVE low. It tanked in 2015 and has been in the $3 range since then. It pays a 35% divi and I will use that a a drip. 50% of it will purchase more PVL while the other 50% goes towards other funds/stocks. The PE Ratio (TTM) is 5.14. In 2019, it always beat.
The reason I posted this is so people can see, you don't have to be a millionaire to make money in the market. At a 3% gain in the stock price, in 10 years time it will make back to $1.90 (not a lot right but more than a banking account. )... BUT LOOK AT THE DIVI. With $1000 investment and only reinvesting the divi, in 10 year it's worth $18K and you are making 6K per year in dividends. If you add $100 per month to it, you are getting $25K per year in Dividens in year 10.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PVL?p=PVL&.tsrc=fin-srch
I will be very shocked if PVL survives the 2nd quarter. A lot of these little trusts won't survive. Some of the most capitalized oil companies in the world are going to struggle to survive this oil bust without taking a beating.
WTI is at the lowest price in history after adjusting for inflation and this company is sitting on a whopping $90.6k cash on hand.. yes like the price of a loaded out 5th wheel $90.6 k. They are still working off profits from $55-60 trades in January. What's going to happen to it when this $18 WTI hits.
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If someone farts and doesn't roll down the window next week, this thing will fold. The dividend was slashed 29% today and I cannot see how anyone who holds this much longer doesn't end up a creditor.
These royalty trusts are a horrible place to be right now. They are not built to withstand this, it's a backdoor way to finance drilling operations. I don't think they should be allowed on the public exchanges.
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/intelligent-income/posts/1368-royalty-trusts-why-most-dividend-investors-should-avoid-them
If you don't believe me... Dig a little deeper, this trust filed chapter 11 in 2018; when we had a little market correction. They just changed the name in 2018 to Permianville Royalty Trust.... I don't mean to be harsh, but quit chasing dividends right now. Call an advisor.. And get out of PVL... They are broke and DRIP investors are just handing them money that they are going to burn.
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article211327564.html
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