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615dawg

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,615
3,538
113
National Seed Contenders
Virginia over Florida State to complete the sweep.
Washington over Oregon State to complete the sweep.
Georgia Tech over NC State to stop the momentum.

SEC Top Four Contention
Kentucky over South Carolina
Missouri over Florida
Texas A&M over Arkansas
Tennessee over Ole Miss
LSU over Alabama

games in italics are way more important than Ole Miss/Alabama. If those three were to happen, there would be a four way tie for third overall at 10-8.

Mississippi State (10-8, 3-3 vs. others)
Arkansas (10-8, 5-1 vs. others)
Florida (10-8, 4-2 vs. others)
South Carolina (10-8, 0-6 vs. others)

Arkansas would win the first TB for the #3 seed.
Mississippi State would win the second TB for the #4 seed.
Florida would win the third TB for the #5 seed.
South Carolina would be the #6 seed.
 
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CadaverDawg

Redshirt
Dec 5, 2011
6,409
0
0
That Ole Miss game is just as important. If they win today, they will have the same record as us.
 
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drt7891

Redshirt
Dec 6, 2010
6,727
0
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SEC record, yes... but their SOS doesn't touch ours (and neither does their RPI). I think our chances are pretty good to take 2 in Oxford, and if that's the case, we will have won 3-4 against them and as long as we win 1 in Nashville and 2 against Bama, it won't matter what they do... we will have a better shot to host than they will.
 
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CadaverDawg

Redshirt
Dec 5, 2011
6,409
0
0
drt7891 said:
SEC record, yes... but their SOS doesn't touch ours (and neither does their RPI). I think our chances are pretty good to take 2 in Oxford, and if that's the case, we will have won 3-4 against them and as long as we win 1 in Nashville and 2 against Bama, it won't matter what they do... we will have a better shot to host than they will.
Click to expand...

What? They have a RPI of 17 and a SOS of 28. That is not far behind us at all (we're RPI #8 & SOS #17). I think everyone is overlooking Ole Miss a little too much.

Not to mention they play Kentucky in Oxford, and then at Auburn the next two weeks, and could easily go 4-2 or better. That would put them at 14-10 in conference going in to their last two series with us and LSU, and only needing to go 2-4 to be 16-14 and in great position to host.

People that think they are out of the discussion aren't paying attention to their upcoming schedule.

I hope I am wrong and that they fizzle out, but right now they are in good shape with a win today...and can control their destiny just like us.
 
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drt7891

Redshirt
Dec 6, 2010
6,727
0
0
Our SOS is much more attractive from here on out than theirs is. If we take 2, or even 1 from them in Oxford, we won't be in bad shape at all (a series win would be huge, but going 1-2 would be par for the course). We need to:

-Beat Memphis
-Not get swept at Vandy
-take AT LEAST 2-3 against Bama
-take 2-3 against USCe

That will leave us going 2-2 against OM, with a much better OOC record and much stronger RPI and SOS. If we do that, I think we will get the nod over them with a host spot. I could be wrong, but our scedule and RPI would still be more attractive.
 
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msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
If we're counting on tenn winning this game, we're in bad shape. They're really bad
 
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CadaverDawg

Redshirt
Dec 5, 2011
6,409
0
0
msstate7 said:
If we're counting on tenn winning this game, we're in bad shape. They're really bad
Click to expand...

Counting on it, no. Needing them to win, yes. Tennessee has their Ace throwing on Sunday's, so I was hoping they could pull it out. We really need them to find a way to win today.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,533
25,810
113
I definitely agree with you on this. Way too many people, including many of their own fans, have written Mississippi off way too early. It won't matter if we take care of our business, but I could very easily see Mississippi hosting a regional, whether we take care of business and host one too or not.
 
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msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
4-3 ole miss with 2 outs. Us not getting to play Missouri or tenn could cost us national seed. Both of them are junior college teams
 
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msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
You guys worry too much about ole miss. They suck against lefties and Kentucky will throw 3 at them this week. We will win that series against them. Lsu might sweep them.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,533
25,810
113
I think the RPI boost will make up for the SEC record hit and pretty much wash out as far as chances at a host / national seed. It will hurt our SEC record and SEC tournament seed though.
 
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drt7891

Redshirt
Dec 6, 2010
6,727
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I disagree somewhat. Records will not matter if it our RPI and SOS is better. Sweeping UT or Mizzou at home is less than taking 2-3 against USCe. The much bigger series for OM is UK next weekend and UK actually matches up very well with them, IF they bring their bats.

We have the edge down the stretch as long as we win the games we need to win and don't lose any ground by losing games we don't need to lose (Alabama).
 
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msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
drt7891 said:
I disagree somewhat. Records will not matter if it our RPI and SOS is better. Sweeping UT or Mizzou at home is less than taking 2-3 against USCe. The much bigger series for OM is UK next weekend and UK actually matches up very well with them, IF they bring their bats.

We have the edge down the stretch as long as we win the games we need to win and don't lose any ground by losing games we don't need to lose (Alabama).
Click to expand...

I like Kentucky against them this week. Ole miss is terrible against lefties
 
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drt7891

Redshirt
Dec 6, 2010
6,727
0
0
Auburn is not a bad team. They aren't as good as we are by any means, but we didn't lose much ground. They may be 6-12 in the league, but their series losses are LSU(sweep), Alabama(1-2), and us(1-2). They taken 2-3 from TAMU and UGA. They will finish in the middle of the pack and would not surprise me if they win the series against OM. Auburn is a better hitting team, all around, than many of the SEC teams we've played except LSU. They just don't have a bullpen.

The two that hurt us the most are the Arkansas and Kentucky games.
 
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CEO2044

Senior
May 11, 2009
1,799
438
83
Auburn bats well. I don't think they're as bad as their record says they are.

They threw one good pitcher at us, and we didn't respond well enough. I think we need Lindgren back throwing Friday.
 
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