Sunday Hosting Analysis

[615dawg]

Only one game that matters still going on.ASU and Arizona tied at 1 in the 7th. Go Wildcats.
National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. LSU
5. Oregon State
6. Florida State
7. Cal State Fullerton
8. Louisville

All are locks except for maybe Louisville. Oregon and N.C. State are the two on the outside looking in. I think Louisville, with 16 straight wins, a 46-10 record, and now a #13 RPI after taking the first two from a top 25 Pittsburgh team can wrap it up if they win tomorrow.

Oregon and N.C. State are definite hosts, so there are six spots left.

Indiana took a doubleheader from Ohio State today. They clinched the Big Ten and locked up a host. Perfect Super Regional opponent for Louisville. You know who might benefit the most? Kentucky. They are 3-0 against Louisville and Indiana. They are likely the #2 seed in the Louisville regional, and would play Indiana if they got through. Just an interesting tidbit I thought.

UCLA took their second game from USC. They are probably a lock as well.

Kansas State clinched the Big 12 with a second win over Oklahoma. I'm going to move them to a lock to host the Manhattan Regional.

So there are three spots, and the way I see it, four teams.

Mississippi State. We have the highest RPI, the best record, the toughest schedule, the most quality wins. The only negative is our 5th place finish in the SEC.

Clemson. The ACC has four locks for hosts, so Clemson would be the fifth ACC host - that could be a negative.

South Carolina. Finished higher than MSU in the SEC standings, has played in the last three national championship games and won two.

Arizona State. They are sitting at 33-16. Could lose the series with Arizona this weekend. RPI is 21st, while MSU, Clemson and South Carolina are all in the top 12.

South Alabama blew their chance by losing twice to Troy this weekend. Arkansas losing twice to Auburn dropped them to 48th in the RPI. Its probably too much, despite a third place finish in the SEC.

Here's the possible combinations for hosts and the reasoning behind them.

Option 1
Mississippi State, South Carolina, Arizona State.
MSU gets the nod because of their top 10 RPI, and Arizona State gets in because of geography and not to give the ACC five hosts. South Carolina took 2 of 3 from Clemson and Clemson is the odd man out.

Option 2
Mississippi State, Clemson, Arizona State
Clemson gets the nod over South Carolina because of a tougher schedule and the fact that the series was early in the year.

Option 3
Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina
Arizona State plays themselves out of a host, and this is the logical choice.

Option 4
Clemson, South Carolina, Arizona State
This is the least likely, because you cannot make an argument for Clemson (5th place in ACC vs. MSU 5th place in SEC with tougher schedule) or South Carolina (losers of 2 of 3 against MSU). The only way this plays out is if MSU goes 1-2 in the SEC Tournament and both South Carolina and Clemson have great weeks.

The Wildcard Option
South Alabama's AD is still a member of the committee. The NCAA loves to give regionals to mid-majors when they can justify it. USA still has a Top 16 RPI. It might be us, it might be South Carolina, it might be Clemson (I dont think for geography reasons it would be ASU), but someone might be screwed in favor of Stanky Field. Its unlikely, but it has to be out there as an option, despite Troy going for the sweep.

Still think if we host we are paired with Tallahassee.

 

[57stratdawg]

Good stuff 615. How much do you think the potential for us having 15,000 fans plays into things?

 

[QuaoarsKing]

You think Kentucky will get a 2 seed? I believe our 2006 team at 12-17 was the worst SEC record to ever make the NCAA Tournament, and Kentucky's sitting at 11-19. With an RPI of 38, it's possible, but I doubt they make it without a strong showing in Hoover.

 

[FlotownDawg]

How is Kentucky a 2 seed in any region?

You know who might benefit the most? Kentucky. They are 3-0 against Louisville and Indiana. They are likely the #2 seed in the Louisville regional, and would play Indiana if they got through. Just an interesting tidbit I thought.

They finished with an 11-19 SEC record. That's only 1 game better than Missouri, and they lost 2 of 3 to Mizzou this weekend. Plus their overall record is only 30-24. They had a terrible second half of the season, and I don't think they won a series in the second half of SEC play other than Ole Miss. Am I missing something here? I don't think that any team that finished 8 games under .500 in conference play deserves a regional spot.

 

[GOOD_DAWG2.0]

Only one game that matters still going on.ASU and Arizona tied at 1 in the 7th. Go Wildcats.
National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. LSU
5. Oregon State
6. Florida State
7. Cal State Fullerton
8. Louisville

All are locks except for maybe Louisville. Oregon and N.C. State are the two on the outside looking in. I think Louisville, with 16 straight wins, a 46-10 record, and now a #13 RPI after taking the first two from a top 25 Pittsburgh team can wrap it up if they win tomorrow.

Oregon and N.C. State are definite hosts, so there are six spots left.

Indiana took a doubleheader from Ohio State today. They clinched the Big Ten and locked up a host. Perfect Super Regional opponent for Louisville. You know who might benefit the most? Kentucky. They are 3-0 against Louisville and Indiana. They are likely the #2 seed in the Louisville regional, and would play Indiana if they got through. Just an interesting tidbit I thought.

UCLA took their second game from USC. They are probably a lock as well.

Kansas State clinched the Big 12 with a second win over Oklahoma. I'm going to move them to a lock to host the Manhattan Regional.

So there are three spots, and the way I see it, four teams.

Mississippi State. We have the highest RPI, the best record, the toughest schedule, the most quality wins. The only negative is our 5th place finish in the SEC.

Clemson. The ACC has four locks for hosts, so Clemson would be the fifth ACC host - that could be a negative.

South Carolina. Finished higher than MSU in the SEC standings, has played in the last three national championship games and won two.

Arizona State. They are sitting at 33-16. Could lose the series with Arizona this weekend. RPI is 21st, while MSU, Clemson and South Carolina are all in the top 12.

South Alabama blew their chance by losing twice to Troy this weekend. Arkansas losing twice to Auburn dropped them to 48th in the RPI. Its probably too much, despite a third place finish in the SEC.

Here's the possible combinations for hosts and the reasoning behind them.

Option 1
Mississippi State, South Carolina, Arizona State.
MSU gets the nod because of their top 10 RPI, and Arizona State gets in because of geography and not to give the ACC five hosts. South Carolina took 2 of 3 from Clemson and Clemson is the odd man out.

Option 2
Mississippi State, Clemson, Arizona State
Clemson gets the nod over South Carolina because of a tougher schedule and the fact that the series was early in the year.

Option 3
Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina
Arizona State plays themselves out of a host, and this is the logical choice.

Option 4
Clemson, South Carolina, Arizona State
This is the least likely, because you cannot make an argument for Clemson (5th place in ACC vs. MSU 5th place in SEC with tougher schedule) or South Carolina (losers of 2 of 3 against MSU). The only way this plays out is if MSU goes 1-2 in the SEC Tournament and both South Carolina and Clemson have great weeks.

The Wildcard Option
South Alabama's AD is still a member of the committee. The NCAA loves to give regionals to mid-majors when they can justify it. USA still has a Top 16 RPI. It might be us, it might be South Carolina, it might be Clemson (I dont think for geography reasons it would be ASU), but someone might be screwed in favor of Stanky Field. Its unlikely, but it has to be out there as an option, despite Troy going for the sweep.

Still think if we host we are paired with Tallahassee.

Noticeable absence of Arkansas here.

 

[615dawg]

You're right

They are a solid 3. Still doesn't matter. They have dominated that area of the country.

Could see Austin Peay or Ohio State as the 2 and UK as the 3 in Louisville. Kentucky's good enough to win that group.

Indiana will likely see Kent State as the 4. That's one to watch. Kent beat Louisville early on and has always had a good team that overachieved in regional play. I believe they won a regional last year or finished second. I know we beat them for the title at Ohio State one year.

 

[615dawg]

I will hold to the fact that if they would have swept Auburn (or possibly won 2/3), they'd be in consideration. Losing 2 of 3 knocked them out, just like I and every one else said.

 

[GOOD_DAWG2.0]

Option three sounds nice. Guess I'm pulling for the Fighting Byrnes right now n

 

[HotSauce.sixpack]

I don't see Arizona State hosting. That would give the Pac 12 4 host sites, and only 4 teams in the NCAA tournament. I just don't see a conference having 4 teams in the tourney AND all 4 hosting.

 

[Todd4State]

I think what will happen is you will see MSU, either Clemson or South Carolina- with my nod going to South Carolina based on RPI and winning two out of three head to head and South Alabama.

That's what makes the most sense to me.

 

[patdog]

They were out without a sweep of Auburn plus a strong SECT showing.

 

[CadaverDawg]

They are a solid 3. Still doesn't matter. They have dominated that area of the country.

Could see Austin Peay or Ohio State as the 2 and UK as the 3 in Louisville. Kentucky's good enough to win that group.

Indiana will likely see Kent State as the 4. That's one to watch. Kent beat Louisville early on and has always had a good team that overachieved in regional play. I believe they won a regional last year or finished second. I know we beat them for the title at Ohio State one year.

I don't think Kentucky makes e postseason. I think you have them wrong.

They are going to lose to Ole Miss on day 1 of the tourney, and as of right now Kendall Rogers is saying Kentucky would likely have to win 3 SEC tourney games to get back in the NCAA discussion.

I may be wrong, but I just don't see any way they are a lock to make it right now.

 

[patdog]

I think you're right about Kentucky. They have to win a couple of games in the SECT if they want to make a regional at all.