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Taiwan invasion

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Boom Boom

Boom Boom

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Following this discussion a couple weeks ago, I ran into this detailed study of an invasion and found it interesting. I haven't finished it yet, but I found it most interesting that they concluded China would not take preemptive action against the US because it would likely galvanize public opinion towards entering the fight.

Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA | Center for International Maritime Security

By Max Stewart Introduction In recent years, there has been an increased and discernable concern surrounding the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The topic returned to prominence in the wake of the 2018 National Defense Strategy which described a...
cimsec.org cimsec.org
 
OG Goat Holder

OG Goat Holder

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This is exactly how World War 2 started.

Welp, the way I see it, when the nuclear blast hits, I'm just gonna smile at the mfer before I get vaporized. Sort of like I do in tornado warnings. But in this one, we'll all go together baby.
 
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Podgy

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99% of Americans galvanized to send the less than 1% of Americans who serve in the military to fight the Chinese, unless it involves tax increases to pay for it. I really don't care whether China takes Taiwan, although the South China Sea is an important area, and I'm not interested in spending money and American lives on defending Taiwan. Tibet is now majority Han Chinese, Hong Kong is Chinese and the lives of most Americans aren't any different. It sucks for Taiwan but then it also sucks to live in a country that borders Russia. Make sure you choose to become a citizen of a powerful, geographically safe country. We trade with China now and we'll trade with them after if they take Taiwan. They'll be some Americans, often those unlikely to have read much on American foreign policy, who scream and shout and push scary, worst-case scenarios to easily influenced paranoid people, but ignore them. Instead of spending money fighting China, give us that money to spend on NIL's for baseball, basketball and football.
 
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johnson86-1

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Boom Boom said:
Following this discussion a couple weeks ago, I ran into this detailed study of an invasion and found it interesting. I haven't finished it yet, but I found it most interesting that they concluded China would not take preemptive action against the US because it would likely galvanize public opinion towards entering the fight.

Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA | Center for International Maritime Security

By Max Stewart Introduction In recent years, there has been an increased and discernable concern surrounding the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The topic returned to prominence in the wake of the 2018 National Defense Strategy which described a...
cimsec.org cimsec.org
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I'd be concerned about relying too much on a study counting on a country not doing something stupid. I think an analysis of Russia invading Ukraine would have concluded Putin would be stupid to do that.

I'd hope this is the right answer and China wouldn't be stupid enough to make a preemptive strike.
 
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ChE1997

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Boom Boom said:
Following this discussion a couple weeks ago, I ran into this detailed study of an invasion and found it interesting. I haven't finished it yet, but I found it most interesting that they concluded China would not take preemptive action against the US because it would likely galvanize public opinion towards entering the fight.

Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA | Center for International Maritime Security

By Max Stewart Introduction In recent years, there has been an increased and discernable concern surrounding the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The topic returned to prominence in the wake of the 2018 National Defense Strategy which described a...
cimsec.org cimsec.org
Click to expand...
I think any country would want to do more what Russia did in Crimea, vs what they are doing now.

Invade fast enough where any response is moot.

I think Putin thought he could do that with Ukraine.

China has an advantage vs us supporting Taiwan. With Ukraine, we can leave stuff in poland that Ukraine can "take". you cannot do that with Taiwan.

My World war 3 fear is that China will take Siberia (and all the oil and gas resources there), backstabbing Russia. China could even put the troops in place "supporting" Russia
 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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China does not have the capability to invade and take it. They do not have the transports to get enough boots on the ground to take and hold it. If they could do it they would have done it. This Chinese leader wants it bad. You need to add in the wild car Japan with thier 4th largest navy in the world and their navy is no joke. It can best anything the Chinese has at sea. They have vowed to defend Taiwan.
 
The Peeper

The Peeper

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Damn Democrats, Damn Republicans, Damn Russians, Damn Chinese. Damn Conservatives, Damn Liberals. Please lock it up before it becomes 3 pages long and full of the above.

episode 17 GIF
 
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Boom Boom

Boom Boom

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GloryDawg said:
China does not have the capability to invade and take it. They do not have the transports to get enough boots on the ground to take and hold it. If they could do it they would have done it. This Chinese leader wants it bad. You need to add in the wild car Japan with thier 4th largest navy in the world and their navy is no joke. It can best anything the Chinese has at sea. They have vowed to defend Taiwan.
Click to expand...
Who's gonna tell him?
 
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Rupert Jenkins

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My thoughts on it are Taiwan is about 100 miles off the coast of China. That is very similar to Cuba's position in relevance to the US. They are about 90 miles so quite similar. Is it okay for China to be militarily active in Cuba ? I guess it is.
 
57stratdawg

57stratdawg

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I'm a Chomsky fan. He's pretty open about how provocative we've been towards China. Also, he's quick to point out there isn't much talk of China invading outside of the US media.

We have nukes pointed at China from Japan, South Korea, Guam & Australia. I could see that being considered escalatory.
 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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Boom Boom said:
Who's gonna tell him?
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He knows. Their military is a lot like the Russian military. It is riddled with corruption and equipment is cheap. They have spent a lot of money, but the corruption ate away at it. Just like Russia they have a lot of stuff but it's not all that good. A lot of their stuff is built from Russia stuff. Before Russia invade the Ukraine everyone on this broad except me was saying they were going to kick Ukraine *** in three days. I went around and around with a few on here. Taiwan military is no joke either and just like the Ukraine they will be defending their territory. Land they know. Their families. The Chinese military personal will not feel the same way. China just can't do it and he knows it. He would have done if he didn't.
 
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ChE1997

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Rupert Jenkins said:
My thoughts on it are Taiwan is about 100 miles off the coast of China. That is very similar to Cuba's position in relevance to the US. They are about 90 miles so quite similar. Is it okay for China to be militarily active in Cuba ? I guess it is.
Click to expand...
related.

I don't know why we keep the same Cuba Policy.

I think if we completely opened up trade with Cuba, the influx of cash into the tourism industry there would do more to force a regime change than anything.

www.vox.com

Why Cuban cab drivers earn more than doctors

Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology, culture, science, the climate crisis, money...
www.vox.com www.vox.com

On his worst days, Rafa, a Cuban taxi driver, makes $60 from all his rides. A doctor in Cuba makes around $45 in a month. The colossal disparity between these two salaries is one of the many perplexing realities of the Cuban economy. . .
Click to expand...

"I have to pay $20 per day in taxes. But after that, all the money goes straight to me." Armando has tapped into the hottest market in Cuba from which to extract his fortune: tourism. He can charge between $20 and $25 per ride to the airport. Doing that a few times per day plus some rides within the city puts him at around $1,500 per month in profits, over 30 times more than the average physician’s monthly pay of around $45.
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We completely cut off Cuba, all they have is China, Russia, Iran. What do we expect.
 
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ChE1997

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GloryDawg said:
He knows. Their military is a lot like the Russian military. It is riddled with corruption and equipment is cheap. They have spent a lot of money, but the corruption ate away at it. Just like Russia they have a lot of stuff but it's not all that good. A lot of their stuff is built from Russia stuff. Before Russia invade the Ukraine everyone on this broad except me was saying they were going to kick Ukraine *** in three days. I went around and around with a few on here. Taiwan military is no joke either and just like the Ukraine they will be defending their territory. Land they know. Their families. The Chinese military personal will not feel the same way. China just can't do it and he knows it. He would have done if he didn't.
Click to expand...

Another view is, What does china have to gain? and what do they have to lose?
 
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ChE1997

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AstroDog said:
China is building spy sites and likely missile capability just 90 miles from U.S. soil. And unlike JFK, Biden will likely sleep right through all of it.
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You know this was built under Trump? So he is the one that "slept right through it" and allowed it to be built and not Biden....

(China's Communist Party) maintains physical presences at Soviet-era intelligence facilities at Bejucal in what appears to be a signals intelligence collection operation," the FCC document says, citing a 2018 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Click to expand...
 
Boom Boom

Boom Boom

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GloryDawg said:
He knows. Their military is a lot like the Russian military. It is riddled with corruption and equipment is cheap. They have spent a lot of money, but the corruption ate away at it. Just like Russia they have a lot of stuff but it's not all that good. A lot of their stuff is built from Russia stuff. Before Russia invade the Ukraine everyone on this broad except me was saying they were going to kick Ukraine *** in three days. I went around and around with a few on here. Taiwan military is no joke either and just like the Ukraine they will be defending their territory. Land they know. Their families. The Chinese military personal will not feel the same way. China just can't do it and he knows it. He would have done if he didn't.
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He clearly didn't read the article. It shows they do "have the transports". If he thinks any of the assessments in there are off (and I'm not taking any position on its accuracy at all), then he should say what and how. You too. From what I do know of their naval capabilities, yalls assessment is off.

"They would have done it by now" is just too dumb an argument to be worth addressing.
 
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GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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Boom Boom said:
He clearly didn't read the article. It shows they do "have the transports". If he thinks any of the assessments in there are off (and I'm not taking any position on its accuracy at all), then he should say what and how. You too. From what I do know of their naval capabilities, yalls assessment is off.

"They would have done it by now" is just too dumb an argument to be worth addressing.
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He cannot get enough boots on the ground fast enough. Any attack piece mill will fail, and it would be a piece mill attack. It is island and easy to defend. I have followed this stuff ever since I was in the military. They just can't get enough on the ground to hold it. They will be killed or capture to fast. They will always be out gun. Yeah, he can bomb the hell out of them, but it would just make defensible positions. Plus he want's it intact.
 
thatsbaseball

thatsbaseball

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OG Goat Holder said:
This is exactly how World War 2 started.

Welp, the way I see it, when the nuclear blast hits, I'm just gonna smile at the mfer before I get vaporized. Sort of like I do in tornado warnings. But in this one, we'll all go together baby.
Click to expand...
If we have a nuke war I want the first bomb to hit me right on top of my head.
 
Boom Boom

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GloryDawg said:
He cannot get enough boots on the ground fast enough. Any attack piece mill will fail, and it would be a piece mill attack. It is island and easy to defend. I have followed this stuff ever since I was in the military. They just can't get enough on the ground to hold it. They will be killed or capture to fast. They will always be out gun. Yeah, he can bomb the hell out of them, but it would just make defensible positions. Plus he want's it intact.
Click to expand...
Ok, where do you differ from the article? Which part are you saying will take longer? I have no position on which of you is right, but you are not giving me anything to work with.
 
CochiseCowbell

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Before y'all start talking about acid rain, I just listened to this yesterday. Go to the 22:30 mark for the Taiwanese Relations Act. This guy is pretty impartial.

 
GloryDawg

GloryDawg

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Boom Boom said:
Ok, where do you differ from the article? Which part are you saying will take longer? I have no position on which of you is right, but you are not giving me anything to work with.
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It's not an article. It is an opinion piece. My opinion is based on following many other sources over 30 years. You base your opinion on one. I will let it end there. Believe what you want. No way they can get enough boots on the ground to take over a island nation with 30 million people.
 
Boom Boom

Boom Boom

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GloryDawg said:
It's not an article. It is an opinion piece. My opinion is based on following many other sources over 30 years. You base your opinion on one. I will let it end there. Believe what you want. No way they can get enough boots on the ground to take over a island nation with 30 million people.
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I am bending over backwards to not conclude your opinion is based on nothing, but you are giving me nothing to work with. Again, what part of the article do you contest? Just the conclusion? The article specifically lays out how they can get enough boots on the ground. It determines how many transports they'll have left after the naval shooting phase, how long round trips are, how many troops they'll need to take the airport, etc.
 
Darryl Steight

Darryl Steight

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615 Guy said:
The Bear and Dragon by Tom Clancy is about this exact thing and its a pretty fun read.
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Clancy must have thought it was fun to write as well... I just checked Audible and this book clocks in at an impressive 43 hours. Wow.
 
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paindonthurt_

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57stratdawg said:
I'm a Chomsky fan. He's pretty open about how provocative we've been towards China. Also, he's quick to point out there isn't much talk of China invading outside of the US media.

We have nukes pointed at China from Japan, South Korea, Guam & Australia. I could see that being considered escalatory.
Click to expand...
The US is provocative to china?
 
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