Teddy channels Phillips on CC

[JournCat]

After a comprehensive list of ways that the last three seasons have gone terribly, Teddy points out that Phillips values stability (which has paid off with McKeown) and Collins is signed through 2025.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/spor...0200204-5vvari5prbgixkutaoqgbdrl4e-story.html

 

[Vassar69]

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

After a comprehensive list of ways that the last three seasons have gone terribly, Teddy points out that Phillips values stability (which has paid off with McKeown) and Collins is signed through 2025.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/spor...0200204-5vvari5prbgixkutaoqgbdrl4e-story.html

Very fair article. Good read, thanks for sharing.

 

[catsattackfor3]

The only problem with Teddy's logic is CCC has really fallen to almost rock bottom. All the other comparisons' Coach K's 3rd year at Duke, BC's years at NU were that those guys were at least treading water. This is a complete fall back to the basement with no end in sight

 

[PurpleFaze]

The only problem with Teddy's logic is CCC has really fallen to almost rock bottom. All the other comparisons' Coach K's 3rd year at Duke, BC's years at NU were that those guys were at least treading water. This is a complete fall back to the basement with no end in sight

If recruiting hadn’t been decent the last couple years then we’d just be treading water at best. I believe the hope from our AD’s standpoint would be that the recruiting is going to start paying dividends next year.

 

[GatoLouco]

Very fair article. Good read, thanks for sharing.

I agree. Pretty fair.

I liked the part:
-------------------------------------------
"In 2018, the year after the Wildcats were America’s darlings, Northwestern was doomed because of having to play in soul-sucking Allstate Arena. Last year’s team supposedly was wrecked because freshman point guard Jordan Lathon, the heir to Bryant McIntosh, was denied admission five months before the season. This year’s refrain is: But we’re so young."
-------------------------------------------

We are are good at finding excuses and sell them as reasons.

 

[hdhntr1]

The only problem with Teddy's logic is CCC has really fallen to almost rock bottom. All the other comparisons' Coach K's 3rd year at Duke, BC's years at NU were that those guys were at least treading water. This is a complete fall back to the basement with no end in sight

BC s 8th year was pretty bad. 1-17 in BIG

 

[willycat]

BC s 8th year was pretty bad. 1-17 in BIG

gee wonder what articles teddy wrote regarding Carmody, his never getting NU into the dance and his lack of desire to recruit?

 

[docrugby1]

On ESPNU radio (XM84) ,one of the hosts evidently lives near Evanston and he commented on the state of FB and BB at NU. I will leave it to your imagination about the scope of the discussion

 

[haywood jahblowme]

"Will those additions (minus Spencer) be enough to get Northwestern into the NCAA Tournament picture? That’s a stretch."

again i just don't get this argument. bemoaning how the team is so close and losing games in the final minutes, so the team is in the position to WIN and WIN OFTEN (not getting crushed or blown out or looking like they don't belong etc - as is what the NU is known for) and then talking about a young nucleus that only adds more pieces to it - yet there is no hope and its a stretch because we are so far away.

so the team is either so far away with no hope - or the team is so close to being very good because they are losing in the final minutes?

i'm just glad ill be able to look back and enjoy all this nonsense

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

not getting crushed or blown out or looking like they don't belong etc - as is what the NU is known for

Didn't we already address this false claim?

This is actually one of the least competitive NU teams in the B1G in the 12 years that you (Haywood) have reported to follow the team. Where are you getting this "suddenly we are competitive for the first time" nonsense? What is your agenda?

2019-20 – 11 B1G games: 1 win, 4 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.454 wins or close)

2018-19 – 21 B1G games: 4 wins, 7 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.524 wins or close)

2017-18 – 19 B1G games: 6 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.421 wins or close)

2016-17 – 21 B1G games: 12 wins, 3 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.714 wins or close)

2015-16 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.526 wins or close)

2014-15 – 19 B1G games: 6 wins, 6 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.632 wins or close)

2013-14 – 20 B1G games: 7 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.450 wins or close)

2012-13 – 19 B1G games: 4 wins, 0 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.211 wins or close)

2011-12 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 7 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.789 wins or close)

2010-11 – 20 B1G games: 8 wins, 4 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.600 wins or close)

2009-10 – 20 B1G games: 8 wins, 3 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.550 wins or close)

2008-09 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 6 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.737 wins or close)

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

"Will those additions (minus Spencer) be enough to get Northwestern into the NCAA Tournament picture? That’s a stretch."

again i just don't get this argument. bemoaning how the team is so close and losing games in the final minutes, so the team is in the position to WIN and WIN OFTEN (not getting crushed or blown out or looking like they don't belong etc - as is what the NU is known for) and then talking about a young nucleus that only adds more pieces to it - yet there is no hope and its a stretch because we are so far away.

so the team is either so far away with no hope - or the team is so close to being very good because they are losing in the final minutes?

i'm just glad ill be able to look back and enjoy all this nonsense

Totally disagree with you. NU was "competitive" before Collins. Carmody made: (a) the NIT four times; (b) won 8 games in the conference 3 times; (c) 20 games twice; and (d) won 19 games once. Those teams were competitive. Carmody couldn't close the deal but he had teams that were close to breaking through.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

im talking about this year.

so again - nu isn't winning which is not good. we have already argued the close games and reasons.
but as many talked about (i being big of this - no expectations year) this team is competitive NU team without the wins. it just is. IF this had won in the OOC like teams past (which i think it would now), and gotten 1-3 of the toss-up 5 point games OR games they lead late - this team is right up there compared to the other NU teams you listed. and while there are "bad" losses because of opponent there are overall less wipe-out *** kickings to the teams of the past against better competition in conference. AND if nu was able to get those toss-up games you could argue this season is closest to the tournament year minus the "mojo" of pulling out close games. yes i know - if and butts and candy and nuts. they didn't do it. but it sure as heck ain't a flaming bag of **** year

so when someone tells me the program is in trouble and that its in a bad spot - given that the roster is ridiculously young and adds gaines, audige, and berry at the minimum. i can't think anything but how that line of thinking is nonsense.

here are losses in those season up till the same point as now - feb 4th of those given years

2019-20 – 11 B1G games: 1 win, 4 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.454 wins or close)
merrimack loss - 10
radford loss - 11
pittsburgh loss - 13
purdue loss - 14
msu loss - 5
depaul loss - 5
hartford loss - 1
minn loss - 9
iu loss - 4
iowa loss - 13
illinois loss - 4
maryland loss - 11
osu loss - 12
msu loss - 29
psu loss - 3

2018-19 – 21 B1G games: 4 wins, 7 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.524 wins or close)
- fresno loss - 19
- oklahoma loss 7 - goosed in OT
- IU loss - 2
- UM loss - 2
- MSU loss -26
- iowa loss - 10
- UM loss - 20
- Wisc loss - 16
- maryland loss - 18

2017-18 – 19 B1G games: 6 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.421 wins or close)
- creighton loss - 4
- texas tech loss - 36
- ga tech loss - 1
- pu loss - 5
- oklahoma loss - 26
- nebraska loss - 15
- penn st loss - 15
- indiana loss - 20
- osu loss - 6
- um loss - 11

2016-17 – 21 B1G games: 12 wins, 3 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.714 wins or close)
- butler loss - 12
- nd loss - 4
- msu loss - 7
- minn loss - 4
- pu loss - 21

2015-16 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.526 wins or close)
- unc loss - 11
- maryland loss - 13
- osu loss - 9
- psu loss - 9
- maryland loss ot - 6
- indiana loss - 32
- msu loss - 31
- iowa loss - 14

2014-15 – 19 B1G games: 6 wins, 6 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.632 wins or close)
- northern iowa loss - 19
- ga tech loss - 8
- butler loss - 10
- central mich loss - 13
- wisc loss - 23
- msu loss ot - 7
- illinois loss - 5
- um loss - 2
- osu loss - 2
- maryland loss - 1
- purdue loss - 8
- neb loss - 16

2013-14 – 20 B1G games: 7 wins, 2 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.450 wins or close)
- stanford loss - 11
- illinois state loss - 4
- missouri loss - 11
- ucla loss - 16
- nc state loss - 21
- depaul loss - 1
- um loss - 23
- iowa loss - 26
- msu loss - 14
- iowa loss - 16

2012-13 – 19 B1G games: 4 wins, 0 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.211 wins or close)
- maryland loss - 20
- uic loss - 6
- butler loss - 9
- stanford loss - 2
- um loss - 28
- minnesota loss - 18
- iowa loss - 20
- indiana loss - 8
- nebraska loss - 15
- um loss - 22

2011-12 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 7 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.789 wins or close)
- baylor loss - 28
- creighton loss - 8
- osu loss - 33
- illinois loss - 1
- um loss ot - 2
- wisc loss - 20
- minnesota loss - 23
- purdue loss - 2


2010-11 – 20 B1G games: 8 wins, 4 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.600 wins or close)
- st johns loss - 16
- pu loss - 13
- msu loss - 3
- illinois loss - 25
- msu loss ot - 10
- wisc loss - 32
- minnesota loss - 11
- osu loss - 1

2009-10 – 20 B1G games: 8 wins, 3 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.550 wins or close)
- butler loss - 13
- illinois loss ot - 6
- msu loss - 21
- wisc loss - 10
- osu loss - 20
- minnesota loss - 4
- msu loss - 9

2008-09 – 19 B1G games: 8 wins, 6 games lost in OT or by < 5 pts (.737 wins or close)
- butler loss - 4
- stanford loss - 6
- psu loss - 5
- msu loss - 11
- wisc loss - 29
- pu loss - 2
- um loss - 9

 

[GatoLouco]

"Will those additions (minus Spencer) be enough to get Northwestern into the NCAA Tournament picture? That’s a stretch."

When I read that I thought he was talking about next year. In which case I agreed with him. I do not think we will be a tournament team next year.

But I can see that can be interpreted as it will not be enough, period, regardless of year. And, in my opinion, it should be, in 21-22.

But, being a NU fan, I can't shake the fear that, in 21-22, we will win 6 or 4 games. And find a lot of excuses as to why it was just not meant to be. Nothing we could have done. Universe is against us.

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

IF this had won in the OOC like teams past (which i think it would now), and gotten 1-3 of the toss-up 5 point games OR games they lead late - this team is right up there compared to the other NU teams you listed.

You're joking, right?! If any of the teams from 2008-09 to 2011-12 had won 2 more of their OT or close losses (and they certainly had more close games than this year's team), those teams would have made the NCAA Tournament. But they didn't. And nobody is trying to give those teams more credit than they deserve. Your record is who you are.

I still don't understand why you are so hell bent on trying to feel good about losing this season--and, at the same time, ragging on our past history. I know that you are generally a well respected poster with some occasional scoops close to the program...but your arguments truly make no sense.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

i am just trying to understand - we say the past was way more competitive. but i just don't see it. wins and loses - yes i can clearly see that. we are not winning so we are a losing program.
not competitive? the program is in awful shape? collins should be fired. i don't see it.

if this was a senior laden team and we didn't have new facilities - i could see it. but i don't see it now.

so it people are hell bent on saying how it is in shambles, and its the worst we've been etc... then ill be hell bent on saying its not in shambles and feeling goo about the future. again no way to know what happens the rest of the year, but as I mentioned before illinois and rutgers were in almost identical situations last year.

when i get time ill go back and look at the close games from 08-12 - that would be fun to see

 

[Medill90]

Totally disagree with you. NU was "competitive" before Collins. Carmody made: (a) the NIT four times; (b) won 8 games in the conference 3 times; (c) 20 games twice; and (d) won 19 games once. Those teams were competitive. Carmody couldn't close the deal but he had teams that were close to breaking through.

With the exception of the MSU game, NU hasn't been blown out. I agree that those Carmody teams were competitive, but few were was consistently as competitive as this one.

Another factor we don't talk about is the overall quality of the Big Ten. It's much better top to bottom this year than anticipated. (I'd argue Carmody had a handful of teams that in any other league would have danced) But that doesn't excuse the fact that with so many close games, you have to find a way to win some. That really hasn't happened.

My opinion is that not a whole lot separates Big Ten teams 5-12. An injured player here. Wonky schedule there. NU currently is just not that far from being in the middle of that group. Gaines' physicality would have been a huge help in conference, late in games, pressuring the top wing.

I think a big issue next year will be the loss of Spencer's attitude and intensity. Hopefully the young guards have learned from him.

I'd push the panic if next year looks anything like this year. Looking at the talent, I just don't see how that can be the case.

 

[pschatz25]

BC s 8th year was pretty bad. 1-17 in BIG

His 7th season wasn't much better, 2-14 in conference. Then he took us to 4 straight NITs starting in his 9th season.

As a season-ticket-holder who essentially never misses a game I'm as frustrated as anyone, but I still think we should give CC a chance with this group before pulling the plug.

 

[JournCat]

With the exception of the MSU game, NU hasn't been blown out. I agree that those Carmody teams were competitive, but few were was consistently as competitive as this one.

Another factor we don't talk about is the overall quality of the Big Ten. It's much better top to bottom this year than anticipated. (I'd argue Carmody had a handful of teams that in any other league would have danced) But that doesn't excuse the fact that with so many close games, you have to find a way to win some. That really hasn't happened.

My opinion is that not a whole lot separates Big Ten teams 5-12. An injured player here. Wonky schedule there. NU currently is just not that far from being in the middle of that group. Gaines' physicality would have been a huge help in conference, late in games, pressuring the top wing.

I think a big issue next year will be the loss of Spencer's attitude and intensity. Hopefully the young guards have learned from him.

I'd push the panic if next year looks anything like this year. Looking at the talent, I just don't see how that can be the case.

With respect, I think we make every one of these points every year.

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

not competitive? the program is in awful shape? collins should be fired. i don't see it.
...

so it people are hell bent on saying how it is in shambles, and its the worst we've been etc...

Well, I have certainly not argued any of these points. And, to be honest, I think that the majority of the board is squarely in the camp of: "I expected that we would be better at this point. Collins has lost some of his shine...but it looks like talent in the program could soon be at an all-time high, so I will continue to be patient for the moment. Still, losing sucks."

It seems to me that you have been quite proactive in starting posts and stretching really hard to try to argue the point of how great we are performing (compared to the past) every time that we halfway hang with another team (before losing). But if you feel that you are just "arguing the other side" against a large contingent of posters who keep going on and on about how great we used to be (?) and how Collins needs to go (?), I'll take you at your word and let it go.

 

[ricko6543211]

i am just trying to understand - we say the past was way more competitive. but i just don't see it. wins and loses - yes i can clearly see that. we are not winning so we are a losing program.
not competitive? the program is in awful shape? collins should be fired. i don't see it.

if this was a senior laden team and we didn't have new facilities - i could see it. but i don't see it now.

so it people are hell bent on saying how it is in shambles, and its the worst we've been etc... then ill be hell bent on saying its not in shambles and feeling goo about the future. again no way to know what happens the rest of the year, but as I mentioned before illinois and rutgers were in almost identical situations last year.

when i get time ill go back and look at the close games from 08-12 - that would be fun to see

We stink this year, and worse we are terrible at closing out games. People are understandably not happy as it is the 3rd straight disappointing year. And for the last 2 of them people have just been saying “well wait for next year when the roster will be so much better and deeper etc”. There is exhaustion with the “this year is a loss we never should have expected anything bc XYZ wait til next year” refrain because we’ve heard it repeatedly - throughout the Carmody years and now it’s back in the CC years. Trust me, our expectations as NU fans (well, for most of us) aren’t hugely high, but trying to classify this year as anything but a disappointment is inaccurate. Close losses are still losses.

However, you should notice that very few of us want CC fired, or even on the hot seat. Not even Teddy G! (In what I thought was a pretty balanced article, where I suspect some of the source material and opinions may have come from this board).

So my advice to you- ignore the rabble rousers, they aren’t worth your time anyways. But then we should be able to discuss what has gone right / wrong this season (or the last 3) without everyone on both sides getting all defensive. To repeat: we don’t want CC gone, we don’t even want him on the hot seat. We just want to see a team that is better than 3-17 for last place in conference (or whatever the record ends up being).

 

[ricko6543211]

Well, I have certainly not argued any of these points. And, to be honest, I think that the majority of the board is squarely in the camp of: "I expected that we would be better at this point. Collins has lost some of his shine...but it looks like talent in the program could soon be at an all-time high, so I will continue to be patient for the moment. Still, losing sucks."

It seems to me that you have been quite proactive in starting posts and stretching really hard to try to argue the point of how great we are performing (compared to the past) every time that we halfway hang with another team (before losing). But if you feel that you are just "arguing the other side" against a large contingent of posters who keep going on and on about how great we used to be (?) and how Collins needs to go (?), I'll take you at your word and let it go.

Yep, you must have posted this just as I started typing my response. Very similar thoughts. We (most of us) aren’t saying Collins needs to go. Only a very small minority are.

 

[Vassar69]

My opinion is that not a whole lot separates Big Ten teams 5-12. An injured player here. Wonky schedule there. NU currently is just not that far from being in the middle of that group.

Very true, in fact you could argue that the popular statistical models show that teams 1-12 are very tightly grouped. (And the parity among those teams on a nightly basis supports this as well).

http://www.barttorvik.com/?year=202...1&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#

However, per those same models, teams 13 & 14 are way way way way outside of this grouping. I don’t know what that means for the next season or two, but the data suggests that currently Northwestern is nowhere near being in the middle of that group.

 

[GatoLouco]

Yep, you must have posted this just as I started typing my response. Very similar thoughts. We (most of us) aren’t saying Collins needs to go. Only a very small minority are.

I'll third that statement.

Lately, exceptionally tired of more and more excuses. We were supposed to suck. The majority of us knows that. But even teams who suck win more than 1 of 11 games. With the one win coming against a team of misfits who win more than we do.

 

[Gocatsgo2003]

Much ado about nothing w/r/t Collins being on the hot seat.

Most interesting part of the article to me was "at least one grad transfer to be named."

 

[NJCat]

Most interesting part of the article to me was "at least one grad transfer to be named."

Yep. That grabbed my eyeballs too. Wonder if that is hope or fact.

 

[CappyNU]

I'll third that statement.

Lately, exceptionally tired of more and more excuses. We were supposed to suck. The majority of us knows that. But even teams who suck win more than 1 of 11 games. With the one win coming against a team of misfits who win more than we do.

I just think you're not taking into account how strong the conference is this year. It's the 2nd-strongest in the Kenpom era which is now 19 years, and 12 of 14 teams are in bubble consideration. 2013 was the strongest year, when there were 8 of 12 teams in bubble consideration. That year, we went 4-15, and while we did have 2 wins over tourney teams, we also went 2-3 against the 3 non-bubble teams and lost 9 games by 15 or more. Our biggest 2nd-half lead in a conference loss that year was 5, and we only had 2nd-half leads in 3 of 15 losses, so we weren't even ever in a position to blow leads. This year we've only lost the MSU game by 15 or more.

Is it extremely frustrating to not have been able to close out the IU, Maryland and Purdue games? Absolutely, but given the circumstances I think we just need to be patient and hope these kids and their coaches are learning some lessons. Still a lot of basketball to be played this year.

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

I just think you're not taking into account how strong the conference is this year. It's the 2nd-strongest in the Kenpom era which is now 19 years, and 12 of 14 teams are in bubble consideration. 2013 was the strongest year, when there were 8 of 12 teams in bubble consideration. That year, we went 4-15, and while we did have 2 wins over tourney teams, we also went 2-3 against the 3 non-bubble teams and lost 9 games by 15 or more. Our biggest 2nd-half lead in a conference loss that year was 5, and we only had 2nd-half leads in 3 of 15 losses, so we weren't even ever in a position to blow leads. This year we've only lost the MSU game by 15 or more.

2012-13 was Carmody's last season for reason. We were not competitive that season. It is clearly the outlier in the 12 season stretch I looked at in an earlier post. Some might argue that there were excuses to be made with Swopshire, Cobb, Crawford and Lumpkin (4/5 of our would-be starting lineup?) all eventually going down for the season. After starting 4-6 in the B1G with an already somewhat diminished lineup, we lost 9 in-a-row to close out the season after Swopshire went down--and they were indeed bad losses.

The fact that we are comparing this season to that one is a bad sign. Still, regardless of the strength of the B1G this season or that season, this season's team is definitely better and more competitive than the NU team that closed out the 2012-13 season. No question about that.

That said, the 2012-13 team had 5 wins against Top 75 Kenpom teams by Feb 2. The 2019-20 team has 1 win against a Top 75 Kenpom team at the same point in the season. Make of that what you will.

 

[GatoLouco]

I just think you're not taking into account how strong the conference is this year. It's the 2nd-strongest in the Kenpom era which is now 19 years, and 12 of 14 teams are in bubble consideration. 2013 was the strongest year, when there were 8 of 12 teams in bubble consideration. That year, we went 4-15, and while we did have 2 wins over tourney teams, we also went 2-3 against the 3 non-bubble teams and lost 9 games by 15 or more. Our biggest 2nd-half lead in a conference loss that year was 5, and we only had 2nd-half leads in 3 of 15 losses, so we weren't even ever in a position to blow leads. This year we've only lost the MSU game by 15 or more.

Is it extremely frustrating to not have been able to close out the IU, Maryland and Purdue games? Absolutely, but given the circumstances I think we just need to be patient and hope these kids and their coaches are learning some lessons. Still a lot of basketball to be played this year.

I do not dispute the conference is strong. Though the strength of a conference is relative to how good the others are, right?
-Big East - Stronger than most years
-Pac 12 - pretty blah, as usual for the last several years
-Big 12 - weaker than in most years
-SEC - weaker than in most years
-ACC - a disaster compared to most years

Every single game we lose there are some who want to hold on to some unicornian explanation of why it happened. While some might be true to one specific game, it is ludicrous to think we are just the unluckiest bastards on the planet, and something out of our control just happens to us in every single game. To name a few:

-The conference is just too strong
-We are so young x 100. It's true, but every freaking game?
-We just did not make good shots
-We played 4 games in 10 days
-My personal favorite: we were undermanned. I bet you money that our minutes off the bench are not at the bottom of the conference. I bet you Minnesota, Michigan, MSU, Iowa, Nebraska have been more undermanned than us.Can someone with access to kenpom run those numbers? What's the average number of minutes off the bench per B1G team?

I'll name a few legitimate reasons why we lost:

-We are young, good for 3 or 4 games
-We just did not make good shots. Good for 1 or 2 games, can overlap "we are young" reason
-Our game plan sucked, like our coach being obsessed with zone
-Our coach's decisions sucked, like in stall ball
-Most relevant, and in most games, we lost because we are not just as good as the opponent. Yet.

So there you have it. Ultimately I agree with you. We need to be patient, because we just are not as good as the other teams. Yet.

But that does not mean the program does not deserve criticism. It does. I remember seeing the Matt Painter press conference when they lost in Lincoln. It just felt different from us. He said Purdue sucked and Nebraska didn't.

 

[willycat]

When I read that I thought he was talking about next year. In which case I agreed with him. I do not think we will be a tournament team next year.

But I can see that can be interpreted as it will not be enough, period, regardless of year. And, in my opinion, it should be, in 21-22.

But, being a NU fan, I can't shake the fear that, in 21-22, we will win 6 or 4 games. And find a lot of excuses as to why it was just not meant to be. Nothing we could have done. Universe is against us.

Actually history is against NU. Just ask Bill Foster, Tex Winter and Rich Falk

 

[go cats go_rivals310290]

Actually history is against NU. Just ask Bill Foster, Tex Winter and Rich Falk

Yet, I still get encouraged and become hopeful when I look at a team like Rutgers. I have not followed them closely--mostly when they play the 'Cats--but I have watched their young team get better and better each season... Their trademark seemed to be playing tough D but struggling on offense. (Perhaps you could say the same thing about the 'Cats?) Anyway, I get excited about the huge jump Rutgers has made this season.

Season - Rutgers Kenpom rating:
2016-17 - 135
2017-18 - 130
2018-19 - 78
2019-20 - 28 (and probably NCAA Tournament bound)

There's always the chance that the NU's veterans make significant progress, a couple of the newcomers make an immediate impact, the team manages to remain healthy and things suddenly click...and then we are a bubble team in 2020-21!

(At least I think it's fair to say that there is a much better chance of this happening in 2020-21 than there was ever a chance of happening in 2019-20, right? While I have been challenging Haywood about how competitive we are/aren't this season, I do agree agree with him that it was reasonable to expect that we would struggle this season.)

 

[haywood jahblowme]

Yet, I still get encouraged and become hopeful when I look at a team like Rutgers. I have not followed them closely--mostly when they play the 'Cats--but I have watched their young team get better and better each season... Their trademark seemed to be playing tough D but struggling on offense. (Perhaps you could say the same thing about the 'Cats?) Anyway, I get excited about the huge jump Rutgers has made this season.

Season - Rutgers Kenpom rating:
2016-17 - 135
2017-18 - 130
2018-19 - 78
2019-20 - 28 (and probably NCAA Tournament bound)

There's always the chance that the NU's veterans make significant progress, a couple of the newcomers make an immediate impact, the team manages to remain healthy and things suddenly click...and then we are a bubble team in 2020-21!

(At least I think it's fair to say that there is a much better chance of this happening in 2020-21 than there was ever a chance of happening in 2019-20, right? While I have been challenging Haywood about how competitive we are/aren't this season, I do agree agree with him that it was reasonable to expect that we would struggle this season.)

yeah i tried to use this comparison. illinois started B1G last year with one or 2 wins in the first 10-12 games. same with rutgers. maybe even penn state although i would have to go back and look on them. very similar situations with young talented teams taking lumps and showing improvement as their core got older.

out of curiosity what is NU kenpom since 2014?

 

[NJCat]

out of curiosity what is NU kenpom since 2014?

2014 134
2015 122
2016 68
2017 38
2018 85
2019 74

 

[CappyNU]

I do not dispute the conference is strong. Though the strength of a conference is relative to how good the others are, right?
-Big East - Stronger than most years
-Pac 12 - pretty blah, as usual for the last several years
-Big 12 - weaker than in most years
-SEC - weaker than in most years
-ACC - a disaster compared to most years

Every single game we lose there are some who want to hold on to some unicornian explanation of why it happened. While some might be true to one specific game, it is ludicrous to think we are just the unluckiest bastards on the planet, and something out of our control just happens to us in every single game. To name a few:

-The conference is just too strong
-We are so young x 100. It's true, but every freaking game?
-We just did not make good shots
-We played 4 games in 10 days
-My personal favorite: we were undermanned. I bet you money that our minutes off the bench are not at the bottom of the conference. I bet you Minnesota, Michigan, MSU, Iowa, Nebraska have been more undermanned than us.Can someone with access to kenpom run those numbers? What's the average number of minutes off the bench per B1G team?

I'll name a few legitimate reasons why we lost:

-We are young, good for 3 or 4 games
-We just did not make good shots. Good for 1 or 2 games, can overlap "we are young" reason
-Our game plan sucked, like our coach being obsessed with zone
-Our coach's decisions sucked, like in stall ball
-Most relevant, and in most games, we lost because we are not just as good as the opponent. Yet.

So there you have it. Ultimately I agree with you. We need to be patient, because we just are not as good as the other teams. Yet.

But that does not mean the program does not deserve criticism. It does. I remember seeing the Matt Painter press conference when they lost in Lincoln. It just felt different from us. He said Purdue sucked and Nebraska didn't.

No, the strength of a conference is based on how good the median team in the conference is expected to do against an average opponent. So while the B1G is #1 this year relative to the other conferences, it's rating is 2nd-best of any year in the last 19 regardless of numerical ranking.

As for your question re: bench minutes, here's the conference. We're 7th:
Rutgers and IU: 36.6%
OSU: 35.6%
Purdue: 35.4%
PSU: 33.8%
MSU: 33.0%
NU: 31.7%
Wisc: 30.8%
Iowa: 30.6%
Mich: 29.8%
Neb: 28.9%
Illini: 26.4%
MD: 21.3%
Minny: 20.6%

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

My head hurts.

 

[rwhitney014]

Just checking into say this is an extremely substantive discussion with differing viewpoints that has actually produced some new ground around here. Nicely done, all. The football board could learn from this. Hell, Congress could learn from this.

 

[hoosboot]

AND if nu was able to get those toss-up games you could argue this season is closest to the tournament year minus the "mojo" of pulling out close games.

I suspect it's saying things like this that make people dig in their heels against you, haywood. There are a few people crying about CCC deserving to be on the hot seat, but for the most part I think people are just frustrated that our results are so bad after we've supposedly "broken through". I get that you like to look at the finer nuances of the results, but at the end of the way it's about W's and L's.

I'm likewise hopeful about the future of the program, but I think you do it a disservice when you get hyperbolic about the positives you see (it's the same thing that sets people off against negative nellies overstating the bad things.) There's really not much of substance that this team has in common with the NU team that made the dance. It does that team a disservice to suggest as much.

 

[GatoLouco]

As for your question re: bench minutes, here's the conference. We're 7th:
Rutgers and IU: 36.6%
OSU: 35.6%
Purdue: 35.4%
PSU: 33.8%
MSU: 33.0%
NU: 31.7%
Wisc: 30.8%
Iowa: 30.6%
Mich: 29.8%
Neb: 28.9%
Illini: 26.4%
MD: 21.3%
Minny: 20.6%

Thanks for looking that up. Surprised about MSU. Had the idea they used less minutes off the bench.

 

[haywood jahblowme]

I suspect it's saying things like this that make people dig in their heels against you, haywood. There are a few people crying about CCC deserving to be on the hot seat, but for the most part I think people are just frustrated that our results are so bad after we've supposedly "broken through". I get that you like to look at the finer nuances of the results, but at the end of the way it's about W's and L's.

I'm likewise hopeful about the future of the program, but I think you do it a disservice when you get hyperbolic about the positives you see (it's the same thing that sets people off against negative nellies overstating the bad things.) There's really not much of substance that this team has in common with the NU team that made the dance. It does that team a disservice to suggest as much.

totally understand your viewpoint. i totally believe in mojo in sports. IMO getting a few close wins early can 100% change the trajectory of a season. as many stats show there is not a big difference in the middle of the pack. when you find "mojo" its a gamechanger. you may think thats hyperbole - i think thats sports. and we certainly don't have mojo this year.

again - i have not been rallying about not winning. i have been rallying against the "state of the program" and saying why i don't think its in bad shape (even without the W/L).

as someone else pointed out - expectations were low for this year and comes down to if you want to view it as bad because we've won 1 conference game on the past when in bad year prior we've won 4-5 more (then someone else pointed out SOS of B1G this year), or do you want to view it as not bad because of how we've lost and not getting blown out against the hardest B1G schedule in 19 years (as someone else addressed)

but we all agree its a ****** year and we need to win. i can agree with all that.

 

[hoosboot]

totally understand your viewpoint. i totally believe in mojo in sports. IMO getting a few close wins early can 100% change the trajectory of a season. as many stats show there is not a big difference in the middle of the pack. when you find "mojo" its a gamechanger. you may think thats hyperbole - i think thats sports. and we certainly don't have mojo this year.

again - i have not been rallying about not winning. i have been rallying against the "state of the program" and saying why i don't think its in bad shape (even without the W/L).

as someone else pointed out - expectations were low for this year and comes down to if you want to view it as bad because we've won 1 conference game on the past when in bad year prior we've won 4-5 more (then someone else pointed out SOS of B1G this year), or do you want to view it as not bad because of how we've lost and not getting blown out against the hardest B1G schedule in 19 years (as someone else addressed)

but we all agree its a ****** year and we need to win. i can agree with all that.

Yeah, I don't think most NU fans are that far apart on this season. There were low expectations and, unfortunately, we have met them. I just don't think this team has much in common with the team that made the tourney. And I agree that the big thing they are missing is the mojo that team had, which is REALLY difficult for a young team to find. We'll get better.