The betting line

[billhilf]

Anyone else surprised by the line. It is now down to msu -13. I get that it wasn't at home, but we were 10 pt dogs to unranked penn state. The number 4 team is only 3 more? Even if home field adds 3, it's still only 6 more than psu. Don't get my wrong, I think it's good but I'm surprised by it.

Why do you think it's at 13?

 

[IMARUFAN]

I think the fact that Michigan State only beat Purdue by 3 points last week is a big factor. The game was at Michigan State and Purdue is only 1-4 this year. The Associated Press may have them ranked #4, but bettors in Vegas apparently beg to differ. Also, they play Michigan next week. Very good possibility they'll be looking past Rutgers. Plus I thought I read they have some significant injuries on D, including they're best CB. Lastly, Rutgers is coming off a bye and should be rested and relatively healthy.

By the way, the line was 17 but dropped when Carroo was reinstated.

 

[RUwoz]

MSU keeps playing bad teams close, don't be surprised if they finally get that loss this week

 

[Spare130_rivals]

One of the guys that I trust and buy picks from on pregame.com has his big ten game of the year on us plus 15.

The most important thing though is the line movement. Public is big on MSU but line has dropped a whopping 4 points in our favor. the oddsmakers definitely see something in this game.

 

[Ru2bnj]

Forget the ranking, MSU isn't the #4 team in the country at this point. They are banged up and not playing well. They got up on Purdue by 21-0 and didn't play hard the rest of the way. Absolutely expect them to play hard for 60 minutes Sat. I hope RU makes it interesting but don't think they have enough to actually win this game and I would not be surprised if they lose by more than 2 TDs....I haven't seen much from RU on either side of the ball this year.

 

[toby83]

One of the guys that I trust and buy picks from on pregame.com has his big ten game of the year on us plus 15.

The most important thing though is the line movement. Public is big on MSU but line has dropped a whopping 4 points in our favor. the oddsmakers definitely see something in this game.

dear god pregame is the biggest bunch of scammers in history. RJ bell and Fezzik have been manipulating #s and bullshitting for years. do some research...

 

[patk89]

Forget the ranking, MSU isn't the #4 team in the country at this point. They are banged up and not playing well. They got up on Purdue by 21-0 and didn't play hard the rest of the way. Absolutely expect them to play hard for 60 minutes Sat. I hope RU makes it interesting but don't think they have enough to actually win this game and I would not be surprised if they lose by more than 2 TDs....I haven't seen much from RU on either side of the ball this year.

If we can come out and keep this thing close thru the 1st half, we have a chance to win the game outright. Night game, packed stadium of fans with pent up frustrations, Carroo back, 2 weeks to prepare, etc. Am I betting on this game? No chance, I'm biased toward RU but this could get real ugly if MSU comes out and scores on its 1st couple of possessions and the natives erupt.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

One of the guys that I trust and buy picks from on pregame.com has his big ten game of the year on us plus 15.

The most important thing though is the line movement. Public is big on MSU but line has dropped a whopping 4 points in our favor. the oddsmakers definitely see something in this game.

The line is dropping because the gambling public "sees" a team that has played GREAT in the 1st half, covering each week IIRC, but has gone conservative on O, and gotten complacent on D, in the 2nd half, hence not covering game spreads. Maybe a point is about Carroo coming back but the rest is all on MSU right now.

 

[Spare130_rivals]

Toby just curious what is your opinion on Spartan from pregame? That guy has been a beast for me the past 2 years.

 

[toby83]

Toby just curious what is your opinion on Spartan from pregame? That guy has been a beast for me the past 2 years.

I am not familiar with him, if you caught him during a hot streak that's great. long term you will lose with anybody from pre game. bottom line is if you are betting 11/10 (regular vig) which you probably are, 52.4% is break even. if you're paying for picks, you have no chance. those guys are throwing darts. if Spartan recently got hot recently, i would fade every one of his next 50 picks i GUARANTEE you come out ahead.

pregame has regularly employed criminals - of late his record monitor Jeff Scott (not his real name) , a convicted pedophile , David Glisan (not his real name) - convicted scammer, the list goes on and on.

Cokin and Shaker are well known long term losers, as is Teddy Covers (not sure if he's still there)

Fezzik , like all of them, pimps records graded with stale lines, uses small sample sizes in record keeping, bets props with tiny limits , chases steam, etc etc. he is truly the king of all the frauds.

here are some audio clips a disgruntled ex employee took of RJ Bell during meetings
https://soundcloud.com/therealpregame-com

i used to read about these guys on a forum and dug in a little bit, it's criminal what they do

 

[BoroKnight]

I am not familiar with him, if you caught him during a hot streak that's great. long term you will lose with anybody from pre game. bottom line is if you are betting 11/10 (regular vig) which you probably are, 52.4% is break even. if you're paying for picks, you have no chance. those guys are throwing darts. if Spartan recently got hot recently, i would fade every one of his next 50 picks i GUARANTEE you come out ahead.

pregame has regularly employed criminals - of late his record monitor Jeff Scott (not his real name) , a convicted pedophile , David Glisan (not his real name) - convicted scammer, the list goes on and on.

Cokin and Shaker are well known long term losers, as is Teddy Covers (not sure if he's still there)

Fezzik , like all of them, pimps records graded with stale lines, uses small sample sizes in record keeping, bets props with tiny limits , chases steam, etc etc. he is truly the king of all the frauds.

here are some audio clips a disgruntled ex employee took of RJ Bell during meetings
https://soundcloud.com/therealpregame-com

i used to read about these guys on a forum and dug in a little bit, it's criminal what they do

Couldn't agree more. Several of those clowns are what passes for sports talk radio out here in Las Vegas, and it's the No. 1 reason why I want pro franchises here. Maybe they will talk a little about them and less about what these morons are "experts" about. Not only is it tedious radio -- how many hours a day can you spend on betting? -- they don't even sound like they have a clue. If I was a betting person, which I am not, I would take my chances with hunches and whims rather than "experts" like them.

 

[Kbee3]

I am not familiar with him, if you caught him during a hot streak that's great. long term you will lose with anybody from pre game. bottom line is if you are betting 11/10 (regular vig) which you probably are, 52.4% is break even. if you're paying for picks, you have no chance. those guys are throwing darts. if Spartan recently got hot recently, i would fade every one of his next 50 picks i GUARANTEE you come out ahead.

pregame has regularly employed criminals - of late his record monitor Jeff Scott (not his real name) , a convicted pedophile , David Glisan (not his real name) - convicted scammer, the list goes on and on.

Cokin and Shaker are well known long term losers, as is Teddy Covers (not sure if he's still there)

Fezzik , like all of them, pimps records graded with stale lines, uses small sample sizes in record keeping, bets props with tiny limits , chases steam, etc etc. he is truly the king of all the frauds.

here are some audio clips a disgruntled ex employee took of RJ Bell during meetings
https://soundcloud.com/therealpregame-com

i used to read about these guys on a forum and dug in a little bit, it's criminal what they do

Wait......someone PAYS someone else for advise on betting against the line ?
What's that PT Barnum line......?

 

[Rokodesh]

One of the guys that I trust and buy picks from on pregame.com has his big ten game of the year on us plus 15.

The most important thing though is the line movement. Public is big on MSU but line has dropped a whopping 4 points in our favor. the oddsmakers definitely see something in this game.

i hope you aren't serious about buying picks

 

[RUBigFrank]

Lines move as money is coming overwhelmingly on one team - in this case RU. Think of Vegas and bookies as brokers - they are just looking for the commission (AKA - the vigorish or vig). If they have too much action on one team then you lay off the action to another book.

This could have been a classic "middle play" with taking a bet on RU taking 17 and laying "the chalk" with MSU at 13 1/2. Then you hope for a score in between to win both bets - at worse you simply offset the bets and pay the vig.

 

[RU31trap]

I don't understand the 13 point spread. You have one team that's ranked fourth in the country and another team that is in turmoil. Even when you factor in the home-field advantage something is wrong with that line. Sometimes bookies take a chance when they have inside guarantees and know the game will end with a final score that doesn't exceed the spread. call me crazy but this spread should be at least 17.5 Pts.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I don't understand the 13 point spread. You have one team that's ranked fourth in the country and another team that is in turmoil. Even when you factor in the home-field advantage something is wrong with that line. Sometimes bookies take a chance when they have inside guarantees and know the game will end with a final score that doesn't exceed the spread. call me crazy but this spread should be at least 17.5 Pts.

- MSU on road
- MSU has blown spreads, in the 2nd half of games, all season long

 

[wheezer]

there are several big 10 games, Wisconsin last year, I think, where we start off strong on defense, both teams exchanging 3 and outs

I would hope that if we can hold Mich st early we are able to jump out on them.... I would not try to muscle them on the ground all the way
down the field....we have to take chances in the air.

 

[Mikemarc]

This is typical trap game for MSU. They play Michigan next week.

This, plus us coming off a bye. Plus Carroo back. Plus blackout/prime time game. We have a lot going for us.

Thus will be a battle I think we can win.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

This is typical trap game for MSU. They play Michigan next week.

This, plus us coming off a bye. Plus Carroo back. Plus blackout/prime time game. We have a lot going for us.

Thus will be a battle I think we can win.

This is so not a "trap" game let alone "typical trap game." Sorry. We're not great, sure, but we're still 2-2, at home, in the same division of the same conference,and they didn't play a ranked team last week, so-on-and-so-forth. People want to THINK this is one, so they can hold out hope that MSU will come out flat and we pull off this upset - which is perfectly fine - but this simply isn't one in the true sense of the term.

** and if we do pull off the upset all it means is, quite simply, we were the better team on the field that night, and won the game!

 

[Mikemarc]

This is so not a "trap" game let alone "typical trap game." Sorry. We're not great, sure, but we're still 2-2, at home, in the same division of the same conference,and they didn't play a ranked team last week, so-on-and-so-forth. People want to THINK this is one, so they can hold out hope that MSU will come out flat and we pull off this upset - which is perfectly fine - but this simply isn't one in the true sense of the term.

Respectfully disagree. Rutgers is a team MSU knows it should beat. Beat them easily last year. And Rutgers isn't a very good team thus year. Michigan State has its biggest game in the schefule next week vs. rival Michigan. Not saying they will, but MSU might surely be looking past us. We'll see.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Respectfully disagree. Rutgers is a team MSU knows it should beat. Beat them easily last year. And Rutgers isn't a very good team thus year. Michigan State has its biggest game in the schefule next week vs. rival Michigan. Not saying they will, but MSU might surely be looking past us. We'll see.

Mike - respectfully, if this is your definition of a "trap game," then as many as 20% of all games, every season, would be considered as such, and that's just silly don't you think? .I mean you're right we beat them last year, and they know they should beat us, as we're weaker this year, but that doesn't qualify it as a "trap" game is all I'm saying.

 

[bryanjints]

MSU last year was 8-4 or 9-3 ATS this year they're 0-5.

In recent years RU is a safe bet at home as double digit dogs.

When was the last time RU lost at home at night to a top 5 team? (I really don't know, just posing the question)

And lastly football is a game of matchups and Rutgers matches up far better with MSU than any team they've played this year.

 

[bryanjints]

Mike makes some valid points but I'll agree partly with Nuts.

MSU played Purdue last week which is also a team MSU should beat. Trap games fall between 2 games that are the tougher games on the schedule.

 

[Mikemarc]

Mike - respectfully, if this is your definition of a "trap game," then as many as 20% of all games, every season, would be considered as such, and that's just silly, don't you think? .

not silly, in my opinion. I'd think each team has about 2 trap games each year. That's close to 20%, no?

Not saying they're right, but bleacher report has an article of the biggest trap games for each team this season. Just checked, and they say this is MSU'S biggest trap game.

 

[Mikemarc]

Don't think who they played last week factors into a trap game.

It's looking past a team. Again, not saying MSU will look past us..but if there's a game on their schedule they may be looking past..this is it. Hence the trap game.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Not saying they're right, but bleacher report has an article of the biggest trap games for each team this season. Just checked, and they say this is MSU'S biggest trap game.[/QUOTE]

There's the problem: you read Bleacher Report, lol! Growing up with college football I've always been told, and gone by the edict, of a trap game having to be "between" to BIG games, hence, the "trap." Even relaxing that, a bit, I still don't see this game as one but, hey, to each his own. All good!

 

[Mikemarc]

Not saying they're right, but bleacher report has an article of the biggest trap games for each team this season. Just checked, and they say this is MSU'S biggest trap game.

There's the problem: you read Bleacher Report, lol! Growing up with college football I've always been told, and gone by the edict, of a trap game having to be "between" to BIG games, hence, the "trap." Even relaxing that, a bit, I still don't see this game as one but, hey, to each his own. All good![/QUOTE]

All good. Trap or not, let's hope we shock the world.

 

[RUBigFrank]

I don't understand the 13 point spread. You have one team that's ranked fourth in the country and another team that is in turmoil. Even when you factor in the home-field advantage something is wrong with that line. Sometimes bookies take a chance when they have inside guarantees and know the game will end with a final score that doesn't exceed the spread. call me crazy but this spread should be at least 17.5 Pts.

There is nothing to understand regarding a line other than its the median point of where bettors think the line should be. If you don't understand then you should be looking at power indexes or sagarin.

 

[Spare130_rivals]

The records of each bettor are documented Spartan is a winner long term look him up. I don't disagree with you that some will lose but when the records are documented on the site it's not a Bad thing to buy picks. Im up money after 18 months so I hardly think spartan and goodfella have just been on a 18 month hot streak

 

[RUbanks]

It's amazing how clueless most people are about how lines work. Maybe your local bookie's goal is just to collect the vig, but that's not at all how books operate. And general public money has really nothing to do with moving the line.

 

[lighty]

Vegas must think Carroo has a heckuva NFL future awaiting him

 

[RU at the shore]

I really thought this spread would be in the low 20s