Football The Ceiling, The Floor & Season Predictions for Rutgers Football in 2023
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
8-4/4-8/6-6 here
I'm a high ceiling/floor kind of fan. Can't see the floor being any lower, but who knows. My ceiling is a bit high,.
I'd tend to agree with the prediction more than the ceiling or floor. I don't see 2 wins happening. Schiano is, to my mind, reliably mediocre, which means he'll eke out most or all of the really easy wins, ugly or not, and not have a total collapse. On the other hand, don't look for too many unexpected wins; they're extremely rare with Schiano. As a result 4 or 5 wins is most likely unless there's a really big turnaround on offense.
7-5/4-8/5-7
In 2006 I was shocked at how good the D had become after we lost some talent on D. 2023 offense might surprise us all and I hope that is the case. So much churn over there and with that extra CoVid year really helping the teams that had a lot of talent to retain, I just think the gap between the top teams and bottom teams got wider... especially with teams being better positioned to take advantage of NIL.
In 2006 I was shocked at how good the D had become after we lost some talent on D. 2023 offense might surprise us all and I hope that is the case. So much churn over there and with that extra CoVid year really helping the teams that had a lot of talent to retain, I just think the gap between the top teams and bottom teams got wider... especially with teams being better positioned to take advantage of NIL.
I think winning only 2 games is pretty much impossible for this team. Mathematically, every team's floor is 0 wins, but realistically speaking, that seems like an unreasonably low floor for Rutgers to me...
Wow - that’s quite an ambitious floor. The ceiling seems reasonable. It’s unlikely we knock off Iowa at their place but you never know. In a defensive battle we could have a punchers chance. The 3 non-conference games, Indiana, NW, Michigan State and Maryland are all games we will have a chance of winning - so yeah, if absolutely everything went right we could get to 8.
It’d also be very easy to fall short of 6 wins though, unfortunately, in a season where Wagner is the only automatic win on the schedule.
EDIT-INGORE THIS FOOLISH DRIVEL. SEE BELOW FOR LESS FOOLISH DRIVEL.
Here's why my floor is so ambitious/high:
Wagner is a given. 1 win!!
Playing the odds, gotta think NW/V Tech/Indiana/Maryland/Michigan State/Iowa- I see 3 wins in there somewhere. We could lose to NW or V Tech (if both, lookout, and I'm jumping!), but unless we are plagued with the injury bug, I see the team getting better each week. Yeah, so will other teams, except for perhaps Indiana. Please don't use this post against me later in the season, just spitballing here on a Monday morning pre-season.
Last edited:
But 3 wins in that group plus Wagner and Temple would get us to 5 not 6, right? Or are you assuming we’re going to also knock off one of the big wigs?
Ceiling: 12-0
Floor: 0-12
Reality: 6-6
Floor: 0-12
Reality: 6-6
I’m in with knight shift ceiling/floor/ expectation.
dammit, I forgot Temple (put me on ignore today!). Let's try again:
Wagner is a given. 1 win!!
Playing the odds, gotta think among TEMPLE/NW/V Tech/Indiana////Maryland/Michigan State/Iowa- I see 3 wins in there somewhere. We could lose to NW or V Tech (if both, lookout, and I'm jumping!), but unless we are plagued with the injury bug, I see the team getting better each week. Yeah, so will other teams, except for perhaps Indiana. Please don't use this post against me later in the season, just spitballing here on a Monday morning pre-season.
Further note- in that first group after 1 win for Wagner, gotta think there is 3 wins in there, and if not, lookout, but even if 2 wins, which gets RU to 3 wins, thinking we knock off one of Maryland/Mich State/Iowa. 4 is my floor!!!
A not fun fact. Last season Rutgers ranked last (131) in red-zone scoring defense. I think we will be much better on that stat this year.
I tend to think that the improvements the team is making (on both the O and D) are gradual and not significant enough to make that much a dent in the record.
That's why I'm going with:
ceiling: 6-6
floor: 4-8
prediction: 5-7
But, this isn't so much a bad thing. We'll see improvements just about everywhere and we'll be more competitive in more games. I just don't think we're at bowl game-readiness just yet.
That's why I'm going with:
ceiling: 6-6
floor: 4-8
prediction: 5-7
But, this isn't so much a bad thing. We'll see improvements just about everywhere and we'll be more competitive in more games. I just don't think we're at bowl game-readiness just yet.
That's reasonable, and unlike the homers (me!!!), perhaps the season will not be seen as a failure if RU does not make a bowl game, but shows competitiveness in the games they lose, and the blowouts are minimized to maybe 1 (2 max).
Ceiling - 6-6
Floor - 3-9
Prediction - 4-8
Offense has not shown any consistent ability to move the ball. All those three and out will add up and tax the defense as the year goes on. I think we get NW, Temple and IU. VT will be a toss up. Not sure where the other wins come from.
Floor - 3-9
Prediction - 4-8
Offense has not shown any consistent ability to move the ball. All those three and out will add up and tax the defense as the year goes on. I think we get NW, Temple and IU. VT will be a toss up. Not sure where the other wins come from.
You are correct Knight Shift if we don’t make a bowl game it may not be a failure nor a sign of more seasons of failure. Play the games and evaluate it objectively.
Just an FYI from Coach Schiano Re: where the program was when he took over.
Rutgers football is trending up and is emerging from a mess. That was the message from head coach Greg Schiano on Saturday following his team’s 37-0 loss at Maryland to close out the season.
At the end of the third season of Schiano’s rebuilding of the team, Rutgers finished 4-8 (1-7). It was the lowest win percentage of any of Schiano’s three seasons since the famed coach returned to the program.
Following a game that saw his team put up an underwhelming performance against a Big Ten peer, Schiano cautioned that it is important to keep in mind just how deep a hole he inherited when he took over three years ago.
It is clear, though, that there is a steep road still ahead for Rutgers, with Saturday’s discouraging performance a reminder that this team isn’t there yet to compete consistently on the Big Ten level.
In the past three seasons, they have won six games in the conference.
Greg Schiano provides reminder of the steepness of the Rutgers football rebuild: 'It literally was dysfunctional'
Rutgers football is trending up and is emerging from a mess. That was the message from head coach Greg Schiano on Saturday following his team’s 37-0 loss at Maryland to close out the season.
At the end of the third season of Schiano’s rebuilding of the team, Rutgers finished 4-8 (1-7). It was the lowest win percentage of any of Schiano’s three seasons since the famed coach returned to the program.
Following a game that saw his team put up an underwhelming performance against a Big Ten peer, Schiano cautioned that it is important to keep in mind just how deep a hole he inherited when he took over three years ago.
It is clear, though, that there is a steep road still ahead for Rutgers, with Saturday’s discouraging performance a reminder that this team isn’t there yet to compete consistently on the Big Ten level.
Related
The Rashad Rochelle 'Train' is running ahead of time for Rutgers football
For a coach who usually guards his words carefully, it was a rare sentiment for Schiano to describe the dire state of the team he inherited when he returned back to Rutgers.The 2019 season, in particular, was a low-water mark for a program that has had some bad seasons in recent years. Before Schiano took over for the 2020 season, Rutgers hadn’t won a Big Ten game the prior two years.
In the past three seasons, they have won six games in the conference.
https://rutgerswire.usatoday.com/2022/11/27/rutgers-football-greg-schiano-rebuild-dysfunctional/Didnt HC Schiano say the opposite when he took over? That the team wasn't a dumpster fire that had to totally rebuilt?
Now after 3 years, all of a sudden he back tracks and says "it actually was really bad. I need more time"?
Regardless, this sounds awful like HC Ash taking over and "trashing" the team that got everyone so upset. I'm sure people will find some way to justify HC Schiano saying it.
Now after 3 years, all of a sudden he back tracks and says "it actually was really bad. I need more time"?
Regardless, this sounds awful like HC Ash taking over and "trashing" the team that got everyone so upset. I'm sure people will find some way to justify HC Schiano saying it.
Iowa scored 17.7 pts/game in 2022, vs. Rutgers 17.4.
They won 7 regular season games and a bowl game. We play a tougher schedule. They lost to Michigan and Ohio State last year, and did not face Penn State. But they lost to so-so Illinois and Iowa State and crappy Nebraska (like RU).
RU "could" do the same if the defense does not get worn down by injuries like last year.
7-5
we have to win 1 game nobody predicts eventually. but the caveat is we cannot take many major injuries. if i wished good health it would be to the ol
we have to win 1 game nobody predicts eventually. but the caveat is we cannot take many major injuries. if i wished good health it would be to the ol
Taking the average of points per game is misleading. Iowa had a normal, functioning D1 offense. They could run, pass, block, etc. Rutgers did not.
RU's defense got worn down in many games by being on the field way too long. Also, many of the top teams played down to RU's level and used us as a glorified scrimmage.
That's actually not true.
Rutgers had 153.9 passing yards/game to Iowa's 156.7. Iowa had a 30 yard/game advantage in rushing, but small difference.
Myself- start with the floor.
Blowouts OSU/Penn St/Wisc/Mich
Lose Maryland/Iowa/MST - these are the games I think we could sneak 2 of in ceiling
Tossups- NWU/Temple/VaTech/Indiana - we win all 4 in ceiling, we win only 2 of these games in Floor
Auto Win Wagner
Floor - 3 wins
Ceiling Wagner/Indiana/NWU/VaTech/Temple - 1 of (Maryland/Iowa/MST) Steal a game against one of the big boys. We seem to scare Michigan every once in a while so they are on spoiler alert .lol 7 wins
Prediction- We split NWU/VaTech, Beat Indiana/Temple Beat Wagner,1- 2 wins against the rest 5/6 wins
Blowouts OSU/Penn St/Wisc/Mich
Lose Maryland/Iowa/MST - these are the games I think we could sneak 2 of in ceiling
Tossups- NWU/Temple/VaTech/Indiana - we win all 4 in ceiling, we win only 2 of these games in Floor
Auto Win Wagner
Floor - 3 wins
Ceiling Wagner/Indiana/NWU/VaTech/Temple - 1 of (Maryland/Iowa/MST) Steal a game against one of the big boys. We seem to scare Michigan every once in a while so they are on spoiler alert .lol 7 wins
Prediction- We split NWU/VaTech, Beat Indiana/Temple Beat Wagner,1- 2 wins against the rest 5/6 wins
Sorry, averages don't tell the whole story regarding last season. Besides, Iowa clobbers us. We were non-competitive in so many games last season. Heck, our offense wasn't functioning in even a few of the wins (thank you defense and special teams).
To me wins
Temple
Wagner
Toss ups in favor of Rutgers
Northwestern
Indiana
True Toss Up
Virginia Tech
Toss up favoring opponent
MSU
Maryland
No way Jose (Thanks B1G, no one else plays more than 3 ranked teams)
#2 Michigan
#3 Ohio St.
#7 psu
#19 Wisconsin
#25 Iowa
If all goes well 5-7. We could be much better, but with this schedule you won't notice it by wins and losses.
Temple
Wagner
Toss ups in favor of Rutgers
Northwestern
Indiana
True Toss Up
Virginia Tech
Toss up favoring opponent
MSU
Maryland
No way Jose (Thanks B1G, no one else plays more than 3 ranked teams)
#2 Michigan
#3 Ohio St.
#7 psu
#19 Wisconsin
#25 Iowa
If all goes well 5-7. We could be much better, but with this schedule you won't notice it by wins and losses.
Iowa sucks on offense too, it shouldn't be a no way Jose game. Make a few plays and we can beat them. Wisconsin has a new coach and they aren't a juggernaut either.
Iowa in Iowa City no way, we may keep it close, but they just know how to win. Wisconsin, away in Madison, we've kept it to two scores once and that was because we scored in the last minute of play. The B1G loves to give us this crossover. As it will be our 5th time in 10yrs. and we're just not competitive with them. Regardless, this schedule is a bear and the toughest in the B1G.
We could win all 3 OOC, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State. Maybe perhaps Iowa and Maryland. Ceiling 8-4 (but very unlikely).
I am still a little traumatized of Ricky Santos looking like Joe Montana against us in '04. So Warner could lead Temple to Victory. Floor is 1-11 with an after Temple hangover costing us the Virginia Tech game, and somehow Northwestern pulls it together to snag an upset in the opener.
Likely, 4-8 or 5-7. Hopefully last sub-500 season for quite some time.
I am still a little traumatized of Ricky Santos looking like Joe Montana against us in '04. So Warner could lead Temple to Victory. Floor is 1-11 with an after Temple hangover costing us the Virginia Tech game, and somehow Northwestern pulls it together to snag an upset in the opener.
Likely, 4-8 or 5-7. Hopefully last sub-500 season for quite some time.
Big Ten is doing us no favors by switching out Indiana for UCLA next year.
You might be right, I'm just very high on this defense and I think they will get us some much needed turnovers. Pray to god the OL holds up and Sam Brown stays healthy. Gavin will have chances to make some throws if they stack the box, and if things go our way, we could be a bowl team. Can't have any WTF games, especially non-conference.
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 3-9
Prediction 6-6