Take 2014 through 2019, every single P5 champion finishes in the top 9, and the top G5 champion is always in the top 20. So every year, it's just the top 11 and 1 G5 team who at least doesn't get embarrassed by the #5.
2020 is a weird year, but the above also applies, except that COVID opt-outs led to a 3-2 Oregon team getting to play in and win the Pac-12 championship game. Even in the early NIL days, 2021 through 2023, you still don't see a P5 champion ranked worse than #12, although you start seeing a big dropoff on the G5s.
The mega expansion and big mass of random unbalanced schedules has killed this format. It's basically just luck now who happens to get into the conference championship games. Combine that with NIL opening up a clear gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the ACC/Big 12, and an even bigger one between the ACC/Big 12 and the best G5s, and you get a bunch of uninteresting games. Not entirely bad - 2 of the 8 first round games over the last 2 years have come down to the wire - but in the 2010s, it would have been a lot more common.
What's a realistic solution? Go back to divisions in each conference. I would prefer to eliminate conference championship games, but I doubt the conferences go along with it. (I'd also rather unwind all of the realignment, but that's even less likely.) But at least this way, you have two teams who earned their way into the championship games rather than just getting lucky on the schedules.
Second, adopt the SEC's plan for 16 teams, 5 champions and 11 at-large, but no byes or crazy bracket designs. With a more traditional division setup, Miami is probably the ACC Champion, so only Tulane gets in as a G5, and it's like a special reward for the #1 team only. You might see a bracket like this (obviously, schedules would have been different, so who knows exactly what everyone's W/L record would have been):
16 Tulane @ 1 Indiana
15 Utah @ 2 Ohio State
14 Vanderbilt @ 3 Georgia
13 Texas @ 4 Texas Tech
12 BYU @ 5 Oregon
11 Notre Dame @ 6 Ole Miss
10 Miami @ 7 Texas A&M
9 Alabama @ 8 Oklahoma
Tulane still loses in a blowout, but all of the other 7 would have been watchable, and I think Notre Dame and Texas have a pretty good chance at the road upset. I wouldn't count out Pavia and Vanderbilt either. Also, every team that could plausibly win the bracket makes it.
2020 is a weird year, but the above also applies, except that COVID opt-outs led to a 3-2 Oregon team getting to play in and win the Pac-12 championship game. Even in the early NIL days, 2021 through 2023, you still don't see a P5 champion ranked worse than #12, although you start seeing a big dropoff on the G5s.
The mega expansion and big mass of random unbalanced schedules has killed this format. It's basically just luck now who happens to get into the conference championship games. Combine that with NIL opening up a clear gap between the SEC/Big 10 and the ACC/Big 12, and an even bigger one between the ACC/Big 12 and the best G5s, and you get a bunch of uninteresting games. Not entirely bad - 2 of the 8 first round games over the last 2 years have come down to the wire - but in the 2010s, it would have been a lot more common.
What's a realistic solution? Go back to divisions in each conference. I would prefer to eliminate conference championship games, but I doubt the conferences go along with it. (I'd also rather unwind all of the realignment, but that's even less likely.) But at least this way, you have two teams who earned their way into the championship games rather than just getting lucky on the schedules.
Second, adopt the SEC's plan for 16 teams, 5 champions and 11 at-large, but no byes or crazy bracket designs. With a more traditional division setup, Miami is probably the ACC Champion, so only Tulane gets in as a G5, and it's like a special reward for the #1 team only. You might see a bracket like this (obviously, schedules would have been different, so who knows exactly what everyone's W/L record would have been):
16 Tulane @ 1 Indiana
15 Utah @ 2 Ohio State
14 Vanderbilt @ 3 Georgia
13 Texas @ 4 Texas Tech
12 BYU @ 5 Oregon
11 Notre Dame @ 6 Ole Miss
10 Miami @ 7 Texas A&M
9 Alabama @ 8 Oklahoma
Tulane still loses in a blowout, but all of the other 7 would have been watchable, and I think Notre Dame and Texas have a pretty good chance at the road upset. I wouldn't count out Pavia and Vanderbilt either. Also, every team that could plausibly win the bracket makes it.
