The Hosting Bubble - Take Your Pick

[CaptainFalcon]

For the last 3 spots I lean:

Georgia Tech because they won the ACC title
UCLA because they are enough in the mix for a West coast team where we know how this tends to go
TCU just because I don’t know that the Big 12 will get zero hosts and they won the series against Kansas

All fluid, though. Conference tourney week seems like it will be important for these teams.

 

[cadawg26]

I hope Southern Miss gets a host so I can go.

 

[cadawg26]

And hopefully State gets sent there.

 

[Perd Hapley]

First off - Dallas Baptist, Kansas, and USM shouldn’t even be on the list. A bubble has to have some cut-off point, and those teams aren’t really strong in any area.

UCLA is also pretty much a joke. 3-7 Quad 1 record. They are only in the mix due to gaming the RPI and not playing a bunch of Queens and Manhattan and North Alabama type schools. Plus, you already have Oregon and Oregon State as likely West Coast hosts, so they shouldn’t get preferential treatment there.

TCU is also meh. Not moving the needle much, but no black marks on their resume.

Florida needs more quality wins in Hoover, but could still get there.

The obvious 3 to choose as things sit currently are Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Georgia Tech.

 

[patdog]

First off - Dallas Baptist, Kansas, and USM shouldn’t even be on the list. A bubble has to have some cut-off point, and those teams aren’t really strong in any area.

UCLA is also pretty much a joke. 3-7 Quad 1 record. They are only in the mix due to gaming the RPI and not playing a bunch of Queens and Manhattan and North Alabama type schools. Plus, you already have Oregon and Oregon State as likely West Coast hosts, so they shouldn’t get preferential treatment there.

TCU is also meh. Not moving the needle much, but no black marks on their resume.

Florida needs more quality wins in Hoover, but could still get there.

The obvious 3 to choose as things sit currently are Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Georgia Tech.

I think Tenn & GA Tech get 2. 3rd goes to UCLA or TCU. not who I think should get the last host, but who I think will.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

The Tennessee problem is they have one series win since the beginning of April. Literally lost 6 of their last 7 series. And only won 1 SEC series at home all year.

Now, they did start ridiculously hot so maybe that saves them. But they finished the year terribly and if they don’t host, that’s why.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

Just throwing this out there… If you are in the camp of “it depends on who is on the selection committee”

Scott Stricklin and Jeremy McClain are on the committee this year.

Remember this if USM and Florida end up hosting.

 

[anon1758050382]

State had 20 wins vs SEC teams* last year and was skipped over for an Arizona team with an RPI in the 20s. They will decide where they want the regionals and manufacture a justification.

*-SEC is pretty good in baseball. Just look at the last 7 NCAA tournaments.

 

[8dog]

I don’t see how OM doesn’t host with that resume. But they got 16 wins without playing the 3 best teams and got to play Mizzou.

 

[patdog]

I don’t see how OM doesn’t host with that resume. But they got 16 wins without playing the 3 best teams and got to play Mizzou.

They’re overrated still. They’re not much better than we are. If any.

 

[615dawg]

I hope UCLA hosts so we can be sent there. They are the only legitimate possible spot for MSU to land that I think we would be the favorite. UCLA sucks. Big Ten teams suck.

Tallahassee is interesting because I think we could rake in that park, but FSU could light us up as well. North Carolina has pitching that can win in Omaha. UCLA is where you want to be.

They lost a Friday game to Corpus Christi (22-29). They got smoked by every SEC team they played (average score 8-3). Their big wins are midweek games against Irvine and Oregon State. Their third Q1 win was the Saturday game against Oregon. That's it. They have five weekend losses to teams with losing records. They have 7 Quad 3/Quad 4 losses. That Missouri team we just played also has 7. We have 2 combined Q2/Q3/Q4 losses. The Big Ten sucks.

Cheer for UCLA to get a regional then for us to be sent there. Oregon is a little better, but also a desirable spot.

 

[8dog]

They’re overrated still. They’re not much better than we are. If any.

To me the sec is LSU/Ark/TX. Then everyone else but Mizzou and SC. I said it earlier this week, I wouldn’t hate being sent to Athens, Auburn or Tuscaloosa if that were permissible. Just nothing scary about those teams.

 

[anon1758050382]

Going strictly by regionality and conference DEI: UCLA, TCU, and Georgia Tech have to feel good.

 

[dog99walker]

Some of y’all…we ain’t hosting anything but a weeny dog race in Starkville.

 

[615dawg]

Some of y’all…we ain’t hosting anything but a weeny dog race in Starkville.

Unless I am missing something, no one in this thread is debating hosting in Starkville.

 

[Perd Hapley]

The Tennessee problem is they have one series win since the beginning of April. Literally lost 6 of their last 7 series. And only won 1 SEC series at home all year.

Now, they did start ridiculously hot so maybe that saves them. But they finished the year terribly and if they don’t host, that’s why.

I don’t think I ever heard of the committee using criteria like “record over last X number of weekend series” as a criteria. Fact is, Tennessee is 16-14 in SEC play, 41 regular season wins, and didn’t play Missouri. Also Top 16 in RPI, Top 20 SOS, double-digit Quad 1 wins, and winning record in Quad 1 games. I don’t think you’ll find an SEC team that’s ever not hosted that met all the criteria above.

Also, look at Georgia Tech’s metrics above vs. Tennessee, and tell me how Georgia Tech hosts but Tennessee doesn’t. If its a truly merit-based system, then Tennessee is a no-brainer over every other team on that list.

I think they and Georgia Tech are guaranteed to host, and DBU, USM, and Kansas are guaranteed NOT to host.

The true “bubble” is Florida, UCLA, TCU, and Ole Miss competing for 1 spot. If either OM or Florida make it to Sunday in Hoover, they will trump anything that TCU or UCLA can possibly do moving forward, and they will get that bid. And I don’t think UCLA deserves it regardless, based on their current Quad 1 record being a joke.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I hope Southern Miss gets a host so I can go

MSU or Ole Miss one will be in Hattiesburg if they host which will be a disaster for fans.

 

[ETK99]

For the last 3 spots I lean:

Georgia Tech because they won the ACC title
UCLA because they are enough in the mix for a West coast team where we know how this tends to go
TCU just because I don’t know that the Big 12 will get zero hosts and they won the series against Kansas

All fluid, though. Conference tourney week seems like it will be important for these teams.

Sites are determined before the tourneys are done

 

[ETK99]

They’re overrated still. They’re not much better than we are. If any.

They aren't better than us

 

[patdog]

MSU or Ole Miss one will be in Hattiesburg if they host which will be a disaster for fans.

Would be a very winnable regional for either though.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

Sites are determined before the tourneys are done

I think they’re usually locked in by about Saturday night but conference tourney games will start Tuesday and Wednesday and I think those first few games could matter.

 

[Anon1665155225]

For the last 3 spots I lean:

Georgia Tech because they won the ACC title
UCLA because they are enough in the mix for a West coast team where we know how this tends to go
TCU just because I don’t know that the Big 12 will get zero hosts and they won the series against Kansas

All fluid, though. Conference tourney week seems like it will be important for these teams.

Just going by record, I’d give it to Kansas, usm, ucla.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

I don’t think I ever heard of the committee using criteria like “record over last X number of weekend series” as a criteria. Fact is, Tennessee is 16-14 in SEC play, 41 regular season wins, and didn’t play Missouri. Also Top 16 in RPI, Top 20 SOS, double-digit Quad 1 wins, and winning record in Quad 1 games. I don’t think you’ll find an SEC team that’s ever not hosted that met all the criteria above.

Also, look at Georgia Tech’s metrics above vs. Tennessee, and tell me how Georgia Tech hosts but Tennessee doesn’t. If its a truly merit-based system, then Tennessee is a no-brainer over every other team on that list.

I think they and Georgia Tech are guaranteed to host, and DBU, USM, and Kansas are guaranteed NOT to host.

The true “bubble” is Florida, UCLA, TCU, and Ole Miss competing for 1 spot. If either OM or Florida make it to Sunday in Hoover, they will trump anything that TCU or UCLA can possibly do moving forward, and they will get that bid. And I don’t think UCLA deserves it regardless, based on their current Quad 1 record being a joke.

UT certainly COULD host and they have valid case to, but there’s a reason most sites aren’t protecting them to currently.

I agree with you that USM/DBU/Kansas look like it’s not gonna be them.

I do think Georgia Tech will get a lot credit for winning the number two RPI league, even though that feels like a product of them not playing most of the top ACC teams.

 

[johnson86-1]

Some of y’all…we ain’t hosting anything but a weeny dog race in Starkville.

I like the confidence of seeing the thread title, not reading the first post or any of the next dozen posts, and just assuming you know what people are saying. Kudos.

 

[Perd Hapley]

UT certainly COULD host and they have valid case to, but there’s a reason most sites aren’t protecting them to currently.

I agree with you that USM/DBU/Kansas look like it’s not gonna be them.

I do think Georgia Tech will get a lot credit for winning the number two RPI league, even though that feels like a product of them not playing most of the top ACC teams.

I just think that in any merit-based judgment criteria, they are an obvious Top 16 team. End of story. They are also the best team on the list by about any criteria the committee has ever used to rank the teams. What would your prediction be of Tennessee in a best-of-3 series against any other team on that list? How many of those teams would you predict to win a series against them at a neutral site?

I’m not going down the rabbit hole of “what if the committee decides to have a host in XYZ location / region”, because that’s totally arbitrary and not really worth discussing. Changes in importance from year to year, and no one ever really knows how much its going to factor in. By what is stated publicly, it’s not supposed to matter at all. So I personally am sticking with just naming the 16 best teams.

 

[CaptainFalcon]

What would your prediction be of Tennessee in a best-of-3 series against any other team on that list? How many of those teams would you predict to win a series against them at a neutral site?

I mean at least a couple of them. This has not been the Tennessee of the last few years since the calendar turned to April. They lost home series to A&M who isn’t going to make the tourney and Kentucky who is a 3 seed at best. On top of all the series they lost to all the best SEC teams. Their results do not match their reputation or talent level. Not since Week 4 of league play.

 

[anon1758050382]

D1 has these 4 hosting:
UCLA
Georgia Tech
TCU
Southern Miss



11point7 has these 4 hosting:
UCLA
Georgia Tech
Alabama
Florida

 

[Villagedawg]

They’re overrated still. They’re not much better than we are. If any.

Yeah they're not better by much. So many wonder if our mystery improvement had anything to do with Lemonis getting fired. It's clear to me that is was because we were playing UK, Ole Miss, and Missouri, and not Texas, LSU, and Auburn. Pretty simple. We were mid to bottom of the conference all year, and that's where we finished. Not much mystery to it. Now let's see how much of a run we can make. To me from that list, it should be UT.

 

[The Peeper]

And hopefully State gets sent there.

You better hope its somewhere else close where you can actually get a ticket for it. Doesn't matter the sport but especially baseball they horde them. They have to allocate a certain number but it will be the absolute minimum mandated and not one ticket more.

 

[thekimmer]

I would love it to be Ga Tech.

 

[patdog]

Yeah they're not better by much. So many wonder if our mystery improvement had anything to do with Lemonis getting fired. It's clear to me that is was because we were playing UK, Ole Miss, and Missouri, and not Texas, LSU, and Auburn. Pretty simple. We were mid to bottom of the conference all year, and that's where we finished. Not much mystery to it. Now let's see how much of a run we can make. To me from that list, it should be UT.

SEC teams Lemonis played were 109-101. SEC teams Parker played were 32-58. Big difference. And no, it wasn't completely skewed by Parker playing 3-27 Missouri, Lemonis played 6-24 South Carolina too.

 

[The Peeper]

SEC teams Lemonis played were 109-101. SEC teams Parker played were 32-58. Big difference. And no, it wasn't completely skewed by Parker playing 3-27 Missouri, Lemonis played 6-24 South Carolina too.

Lemonis was 42-69 in conference since winning the Natty. That was good enough for last place in '22, next to last place in '23, 8th place in 24th and when he was jettisoned, he was in 14th place this season. That's all you need to know

 

[patdog]

Lemonis was 42-69 in conference since winning the Natty. That was good enough for last place in '22, next to last place in '23, 8th place in 24th and when he was jettisoned, he was in 14th place this season. That's all you need to know

Trust me, every day since May 2023 was a good day to fire Lemonis. Just pointing out that the "Parker effect" is as much a function of the schedule as it is of Parker really turning this team around. It's the same team it always was, and that will show in the SEC tournament and regional.

 

[Perd Hapley]

SEC teams Lemonis played were 109-101. SEC teams Parker played were 32-58. Big difference. And no, it wasn't completely skewed by Parker playing 3-27 Missouri, Lemonis played 6-24 South Carolina too.

Slight correction…..

SEC teams that Lemonis played were 109-101.

SEC teams that Parker played were 29-31.

For all intents and purposes, Mizzou is not an SEC team. And nobody cares that we swept them.

Parker deserves credit for going 5-1 against UK and Ole Miss. If anyone that played both of those schools swept both of them, then I’d like to know who it was. Otherwise, credit is due for Parker doing about as well as he possibly could have against them. Still doesn’t mean he needs to be named full time HC.

 

[Chesusdog]

Just throwing this out there… If you are in the camp of “it depends on who is on the selection committee”

Scott Stricklin and Jeremy McClain are on the committee this year.

Remember this if USM and Florida end up hosting.

Hopefully Scott Stricklin can take a moment during the selection process to go **** himself like the traitor he is.

 

[onewoof]

I just think that in any merit-based judgment criteria, they are an obvious Top 16 team. End of story. They are also the best team on the list by about any criteria the committee has ever used to rank the teams. What would your prediction be of Tennessee in a best-of-3 series against any other team on that list? How many of those teams would you predict to win a series against them at a neutral site?

I’m not going down the rabbit hole of “what if the committee decides to have a host in XYZ location / region”,

Look what happened in softball. Clearly it can happen.

 

[leeinator]

I hope Southern Miss gets a host so I can go.

Hattiesburg Police will send extra manpower along with a rush shipment of additional handcuffs straight to the Miss. State dugout area.