***DISCLAIMER: My hope is that we win at least one more football game (preferably two) and are bowl eligible with 6+ wins. In the event we finish 5-7, and if there are not enough 6 win teams to fill all the bowls, it's possible we still might be extended a bid based on our APR. I 100% think we should accept a bid no matter what bowl and where it is and how the invitation is earned. This is the path to an APR bowl bid if we finish 5-7.***
There are 34 bowl games (68 teams) + 12 playoff teams, so 80 total spots. There are 60 teams already eligible, leaving 19 spots.
(Missouri State and Delaware are FBS transition teams, so they are not eligible for a bowl if there are 80 teams with 6 wins, but they are eligible if there are not 80 teams. They would slot in AHEAD of the 5-7 teams getting in on APR. Missouri State already has 6 wins so for the sake of this conversation where the premise is that we finish 5-7, I am giving them a bowl. Delaware is 5-4 and one more win would also put them ahead of us.)
Northwestern, Rice, Duke, NC State and Army all have 5 wins and also have a better APR than us. Just as well root for those teams to win the rest of their games because they are getting in ahead of us anyway if it comes down to APR. That takes the total to 66, leaving 14 slots. (Army could come down to Army/Navy but they still have a better APR than we do.)
There are 14 other teams with 5 wins who could reach bowl eligibility with one more win, but they are all behind us in the APR. This is part of the "root against list."
Rutgers
Baylor
Toledo
Kansas
Delaware
Temple
Miami (OH)
LSU
Western Michigan
Arkansas State
Central Michigan
Utah State
Buffalo
Louisiana Tech
Going down to the 4 win teams, there are nine of them ahead of us in the APR, so with one more win, they jump us in priority. Some of them are 4-6, others are 4-5. It would help for a couple of these to lose out.
North Carolina
Clemson
Auburn
Florida State
Kansas State
UCF
Ball State
Liberty
West Virginia
There are an additional 12 teams with 4 wins who are behind us in the APR and would need to get to 6 wins to earn a bowl bid ahead of us. Some of them are 4-6, others are 4-5. Really need to tag more losses onto this group.
Kentucky
Wyoming
Appalachian State
Washington State
Maryland
UTSA
Marshall
Georgia Southern
Florida International
Louisiana
Florida Atlantic
Akron
There are even a few teams with 3 wins that as of now we still have to watch because they are ahead of us in APR, so getting to 5-7 would give them priority over us.
Air Force
Wisconsin
Stanford
Florida
The are 11 teams at 3-6 who need 3 wins to reach bowl eligibility. All of these teams are behind us in the APR so one more loss and they cannot finish ahead of us. Surely all of these will lose at least one more.
Virginia Tech
South Carolina
Michigan State
UCLA
Texas State
New Mexico State
Kent State
San Jose State
Penn State
UAB
Louisiana-Monroe
Believe it or not, Arkansas is still alive, even at 2-7. If they somehow rattle off three straight to finish 5-7, they would be ahead of us in the APR as well.
By my count, there are 19 of the 136 FBS teams who either (1) cannot reach 6 wins nor (2) pass us in the APR were they to get to 5 wins.
Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green
Colorado
Syracuse
Purdue
Northern Illinois
Oregon State
South Alabama
Colorado State
UTEP
Tulsa
Boston College
Oklahoma State
Sam Houston
Georgia State
Middle Tennessee State
Nevada
Charlotte
Massachusetts
This weekend should thin it out a good bit. Once it does, I will add the remaining opponents for the key teams we are jockeying for position with.
JUST WIN ONE MORE LEBBY AND REMOVE ALL DOUBT!!!
There are 34 bowl games (68 teams) + 12 playoff teams, so 80 total spots. There are 60 teams already eligible, leaving 19 spots.
(Missouri State and Delaware are FBS transition teams, so they are not eligible for a bowl if there are 80 teams with 6 wins, but they are eligible if there are not 80 teams. They would slot in AHEAD of the 5-7 teams getting in on APR. Missouri State already has 6 wins so for the sake of this conversation where the premise is that we finish 5-7, I am giving them a bowl. Delaware is 5-4 and one more win would also put them ahead of us.)
Northwestern, Rice, Duke, NC State and Army all have 5 wins and also have a better APR than us. Just as well root for those teams to win the rest of their games because they are getting in ahead of us anyway if it comes down to APR. That takes the total to 66, leaving 14 slots. (Army could come down to Army/Navy but they still have a better APR than we do.)
There are 14 other teams with 5 wins who could reach bowl eligibility with one more win, but they are all behind us in the APR. This is part of the "root against list."
Rutgers
Baylor
Toledo
Kansas
Delaware
Temple
Miami (OH)
LSU
Western Michigan
Arkansas State
Central Michigan
Utah State
Buffalo
Louisiana Tech
Going down to the 4 win teams, there are nine of them ahead of us in the APR, so with one more win, they jump us in priority. Some of them are 4-6, others are 4-5. It would help for a couple of these to lose out.
North Carolina
Clemson
Auburn
Florida State
Kansas State
UCF
Ball State
Liberty
West Virginia
There are an additional 12 teams with 4 wins who are behind us in the APR and would need to get to 6 wins to earn a bowl bid ahead of us. Some of them are 4-6, others are 4-5. Really need to tag more losses onto this group.
Kentucky
Wyoming
Appalachian State
Washington State
Maryland
UTSA
Marshall
Georgia Southern
Florida International
Louisiana
Florida Atlantic
Akron
There are even a few teams with 3 wins that as of now we still have to watch because they are ahead of us in APR, so getting to 5-7 would give them priority over us.
Air Force
Wisconsin
Stanford
Florida
The are 11 teams at 3-6 who need 3 wins to reach bowl eligibility. All of these teams are behind us in the APR so one more loss and they cannot finish ahead of us. Surely all of these will lose at least one more.
Virginia Tech
South Carolina
Michigan State
UCLA
Texas State
New Mexico State
Kent State
San Jose State
Penn State
UAB
Louisiana-Monroe
Believe it or not, Arkansas is still alive, even at 2-7. If they somehow rattle off three straight to finish 5-7, they would be ahead of us in the APR as well.
By my count, there are 19 of the 136 FBS teams who either (1) cannot reach 6 wins nor (2) pass us in the APR were they to get to 5 wins.
Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green
Colorado
Syracuse
Purdue
Northern Illinois
Oregon State
South Alabama
Colorado State
UTEP
Tulsa
Boston College
Oklahoma State
Sam Houston
Georgia State
Middle Tennessee State
Nevada
Charlotte
Massachusetts
This weekend should thin it out a good bit. Once it does, I will add the remaining opponents for the key teams we are jockeying for position with.
JUST WIN ONE MORE LEBBY AND REMOVE ALL DOUBT!!!
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