The resume - updated

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,508
3,320
113
Everything that could have happened to help us yesterday happened. True, we almost blew it, but we didn't.

<span style="font-weight: bold;">RPI:</span> 57 (+7 spots from last game)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Overall Record:</span> <span style="background-color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">18-7</span>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Strength of Schedule:</span> <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">116th</span>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Conference Record:</span> 6-4
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Conference Standing:</span> T-3rd overall, T-1st West
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Effective Conference Standing:</span> 5th
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Best Wins:</span> Old Dominion, Ole Miss, at Ole Miss
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Bad Losses:</span> <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Rider</span>, <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">at Western Kentucky</span>, at Arkansas
<span style="font-weight: bold;">vs. RPI Top 25:</span> 0-1 (UK, UT remaining)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">vs. RPI Top 50:</span><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"> 3-2</span> (UK, UT remaining)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">vs. RPI Top 100:</span> 5-4 (UK, UT, ALA, USC remaining)

The Pecking Order:
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Conference RPI:</span> 4th
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Number of Teams Similar Conference RPI sends to NCAAT:</span> 5.8 (29 teams in last five years; Most: 7, Least: 4)
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average RPI of Lowest At-Large Team from 4th RPI Conference: </span>55th (Highest: 72nd, Lowest 39th)

<span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected In:</span>
5 Kentucky (probable 1 seed)
16 Vanderbilt (probable 3-4 seed)
21 Tennessee (probable 4-5 seed)

<span style="font-weight: bold;">On The Bubble-In:</span>
45 Ole Miss (in the 9-10 range, needs to beat Vandy to solidify bid)
61 Florida (in the 9-11 range, but has a chance to play up with remaining games against UK, VU, UT)

<span style="font-weight: bold;">On The Bubble- Out:</span>
57 Mississippi State (win over UK puts them in the "in" bubble)
72 South Carolina (needs to probably go 5-1 in final 6 to get in)

<span style="font-weight: bold;">Games to Watch Next 7 Days:
</span>Kentucky at Mississippi State - Not a must win for MSU, but this is a big opportunity. Lose and USC and UT become myst wins.
South Carolina at Arkansas - Loss by USC probably eliminates them from any chance at at-large bid.
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - Win by Ole Miss propels them to the "solid in" category
Auburn at Florida - a must win game for Florida
Florida at Ole Miss - Big game for both teams. A 2-0 week for UF or Ole Miss would put them solid in. An 0-2 week for either and they are out.
Tennessee at South Carolina - If USC beats Arkansas, a win over UT gets them back in the race for the final at-large bid. An 0-2 week for USC kills their chances, which is what we want. We do not want to go to Columbia and play an effective elimination game.
Mississippi State at LSU - Must win. If MSU were to beat UK, any jump in RPI or stature would be eradicated with loss to LSU. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">

</span></span></span>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Synopsis:</span> I think we need to have an RPI in the top 50 to get in. A 2-0 week puts us in the top 45, giving us room to slip up against USC or Tennessee. Just playing Kentucky will possibly raise our RPI by a spot or two even if we lose. Losing to LSU, Auburn or Alabama is not an option.
 

alabamadog

Redshirt
Oct 7, 2008
1,010
0
0
the way we lost was probably our worst loss of the season except for Rider, but as far as losing to a team we shouldn't have I would put Alabama before Arkansas. The Arkansas loss did hurt us more since we are tied with them in the West.
 

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,508
3,320
113
Its a bad loss. WKU is the lowest RPI team we lost to, but they beat Vandy too, so you never know.
 

alabamadog

Redshirt
Oct 7, 2008
1,010
0
0
technically it is bad because of their rpi, but they obviously haven't been a bad team since Fortson returned.
 

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,508
3,320
113
they may throw it out, but on the surface for seeding, it will hurt us.

I have us above USC, only because our RPI is 15 spots higher and we have three less losses and four more wins, but:

We have 3 quality wins, USC has five
We have 3 sub-100 losses, USC has one and its Boston College at 105. BC wins a couple games and USC has zero bad losses in the committee's eyes.

Comparing us to Marquette (a team we are similar with RPI-wise)
RPI:
MSU-57
Marquette - 56

Record:
MSU 18-7
Marquette 16-8

Conference Record:
MSU 6-4 in 4th ranked Conference
Marquette 7-5 in 2nd ranked conference

Bad Losses (sub-100)
MSU: 3 (WKU, Rider, ARK)
Marquette: 2 (DePaul, NC State

Top 25 RPI
MSU 0-1
Marquette: 2-5

Top 50 RPI
MSU 3-2
Marquette: 2-6

Top 100 RPI
MSU 5-4
Marquette: 4-6

Who does the committee pick? I say Marquette
 

topbulldawg

Freshman
Jan 27, 2008
524
83
28
I would say Marquette, but its very very close.

We need Louisville to lose today....a win on the road against Syracuse really helps their chances