We took a hit last night, and find ourselves squarely on the underside of the bubble.
RPI: 63
Record: 18-8
Conference Record: 6-5
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Conference Standing: 2nd-West, 6th-Overall
Effective Conference Standing: 6th
vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2 (UT remaining)
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3 (UT remaining)
vs. RPI Top 100: 5-5 (UT, SC, ALA remaining)
Quality Wins (Top 50 RPI): Old Dominion (40)
Bad Losses (sub-100 RPI): Rider (140), Western Kentucky (172), Arkansas (118)
The Pecking Order
LOCKS
3 Kentucky (overall #1 seed contender)
17 Vanderbilt (3-4 seed)
20 Tennessee (4-5 seed)
ON THE BUBBLE - OUT
60 Florida - Listed as the top bubble team because they have the best opportunity. Gators have three games remaining against UK, UT, VU and what could be an elimination game against Ole Miss. Four big games in their last six. 2-2 would likely slide them into the tournament.
51 Ole Miss - Sure, Ole Miss lost twice to State, but they still carry a better RPI, and at least have a commendable win (Kansas State). Games against Vandy and Florida this week are huge. A sweep puts them in the tournament and in command of the SEC West race.
63 Mississippi State - Good overall record, but easiest schedule in the SEC (and among all bubble teams) will be hard to overcome when your best win is Old Dominion. State has a chance to pick up a win against Tennessee, but 4-1 with two wins in the tournament will probably mean sweating on Selection Sunday. I just don't see it happening.
Games to watch next 7 days:
SEC
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - Rebels have a big opportunity just like MSU did last night. A win puts them in prime position for a Saturday matchup against Florida. An Ole Miss win gets them back in the top 50, and gives State two more quality wins.
Florida at Ole Miss - Could act as a de facto elimination game with Florida's falling RPI. State beat Ole Miss twice and lost to Florida, so an Ole Miss win makes State's weak case stronger.
Florida at Tennessee - A road win over a top 20 team would hurt State in two ways. It would give a fellow bubble team a third quality win and lower Tennessee's RPI.
Mississippi State's two games against LSU and Bama - they simply cannot lose. In fact, State probably needs to win out, but the only regular season game MSU could afford to lose is South Carolina.
National
Pittsburgh at Marquette - need the favored team to take care of business
Marquette at Cincinatti - then we need Bearcats to give Marquette a 10th loss. Cincy finishes with Georgetown, West Virginia and Villanova, they'll have plenty of opportunity to lose.
Duquense at Charlotte - might be too much to ask, but if the 12-13 Dukes could knock off Charlotte, that would definitely help
Xavier at Charlotte - what we do not need is for Charlotte to pick up a top 25 win. 49ers are strongest bubble team with 3 quality wins and no losses outside top 50.
RPI: 63
Record: 18-8
Conference Record: 6-5
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Conference Standing: 2nd-West, 6th-Overall
Effective Conference Standing: 6th
vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2 (UT remaining)
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3 (UT remaining)
vs. RPI Top 100: 5-5 (UT, SC, ALA remaining)
Quality Wins (Top 50 RPI): Old Dominion (40)
Bad Losses (sub-100 RPI): Rider (140), Western Kentucky (172), Arkansas (118)
The Pecking Order
LOCKS
3 Kentucky (overall #1 seed contender)
17 Vanderbilt (3-4 seed)
20 Tennessee (4-5 seed)
ON THE BUBBLE - OUT
60 Florida - Listed as the top bubble team because they have the best opportunity. Gators have three games remaining against UK, UT, VU and what could be an elimination game against Ole Miss. Four big games in their last six. 2-2 would likely slide them into the tournament.
51 Ole Miss - Sure, Ole Miss lost twice to State, but they still carry a better RPI, and at least have a commendable win (Kansas State). Games against Vandy and Florida this week are huge. A sweep puts them in the tournament and in command of the SEC West race.
63 Mississippi State - Good overall record, but easiest schedule in the SEC (and among all bubble teams) will be hard to overcome when your best win is Old Dominion. State has a chance to pick up a win against Tennessee, but 4-1 with two wins in the tournament will probably mean sweating on Selection Sunday. I just don't see it happening.
Games to watch next 7 days:
SEC
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - Rebels have a big opportunity just like MSU did last night. A win puts them in prime position for a Saturday matchup against Florida. An Ole Miss win gets them back in the top 50, and gives State two more quality wins.
Florida at Ole Miss - Could act as a de facto elimination game with Florida's falling RPI. State beat Ole Miss twice and lost to Florida, so an Ole Miss win makes State's weak case stronger.
Florida at Tennessee - A road win over a top 20 team would hurt State in two ways. It would give a fellow bubble team a third quality win and lower Tennessee's RPI.
Mississippi State's two games against LSU and Bama - they simply cannot lose. In fact, State probably needs to win out, but the only regular season game MSU could afford to lose is South Carolina.
National
Pittsburgh at Marquette - need the favored team to take care of business
Marquette at Cincinatti - then we need Bearcats to give Marquette a 10th loss. Cincy finishes with Georgetown, West Virginia and Villanova, they'll have plenty of opportunity to lose.
Duquense at Charlotte - might be too much to ask, but if the 12-13 Dukes could knock off Charlotte, that would definitely help
Xavier at Charlotte - what we do not need is for Charlotte to pick up a top 25 win. 49ers are strongest bubble team with 3 quality wins and no losses outside top 50.