Spin much?
Frankly, if Jones declares - as you believe he will, we are worse than UK. Okafor and Winslow (both clear cut top 10 picks) declaring is one thing. Jones declaring as a late first rounder who's basically got as much chance as you and me of going in the top 20 is another. Say what you want about Calipari, but the Harrisons, Cauley-Stein, and Dakari Johnson all had as good of draft stocks (last season) as Jones does now. Paige's draft stock was even better. If we've reached the point where our guys are less likely than their counterparts at UK and UNC to declare after one year, I think that's pretty troubling.
UK is unusual in that it does legitimately have a true 7 man rotation of guys who all play significant minutes. Duke, by contrast, truly only plays 6 guys consistently (Amile being the 6th). However, when push comes to shove, UK's 9 man rotation is no more real than Duke's 8 man rotation. Against ND, for instance, Calipari played Dakari Johnson 8 minutes and Marcus Lee two minutes. By comparison, Marshall Plumlee and Grayson Allen each played 8 and 3 minutes respectively against Gonzaga. In the end of the day, the fact that UK has obscenely talented 8 or 9 men will not make a big impact in a head-to-head matchup. Both teams will play their best guys and how those matchups play out will determine the champion.
That, unfortunately, is the sort of logic that leads kids to make bad decisions. Historical precedent is historical precedent, and the odds that Tyus is somehow going to buck historical trends are very low.
Frankly, Tyus could play all 4 years at Duke and regress as well. (Greg Paulus?) His stock may be at its peek right now. He isn't going to become a 6-5 220 LB PG in the next 3 years who is still dripping with potential. Tyus is a leader, already proven. He can also play the point. What he lacks is experience and physical strength. (which he will gain) Who is to say that a team wouldn't draft him and stash him for a few years while he develops more physically?
Sure. If Tyus declared, he may eventually come out fine on the other end (after some bumps in the road). He could make it. My point is that, aside from some additional up-front cash, declaring at Tyus's draft position is hardly an obvious, clear-cut choice that is likely to play out well. It's a pretty huge gamble, and historical precedent suggests that the odds are probably going to be stacked against him. Most guys who get drafted in the late 20s are not in the NBA by year 3-4 (which, at that level, precedes any life altering salaries), and getting drafted at that position is hardly a clear springboard to a promising career. As much as people talk about how guys can improve more in the NBA, the real question is whether Tyus can improve more at Duke under the tutelage of Coach K or on a d-league team under the tutelage of a no-name coach, in empty stadiums and with players who have no interest in winning (just stats to impress NBA teams). While obviously Tyus would be giving up a good (but not necessarily life-altering) pay check for a year or two, I do think a kid like him does improve his odds of future, longer-term NBA success by staying in college --- where he can work on his body, improve his lateral quickness, tighten up his jumper, etc. The reality is that most NBA teams will give a guy about 2-3 years to prove he can play in the league. If he's not ready by the end of the year 2, it's very easy to wash out of the league completely and never get another real opportunity to return (Will Avery, Daniel Ewing, Nolan). IMO, borderline-NBA players like Tyus improve their odds by forestalling that decision-point until they're more physically mature.
Stephen averaged 25.3 ppg over a 3 year college career where he averaged 47% from the field, 41% from 3, and ultimately went #7 in the NBA draft after his Jr. year. I think Tyus is a very clutch, high-intangible kid with good skills and off-the-chart basketball IQ, but there's clearly no comparison between the 2. If they were on par (in terms of NBA potential), Tyus would be projected a lot higher than he currently is. If anything, Stephen would be the poster child for how staying in school to develop as a player and person will not necessarily hurt your chances of becoming a high-end NBA player.
What did Crank post that bunched up your panties? The infractions comment? It's not crazy to think that a coach that left his last two schools on probation might do it a third time. Have you ever read Einstein's definition of insanity?
