Through eight games in '09/10, Mississippi State
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The way the SEC is this year, anything can happen.
Overall SEC standings (How the NCAA committee sees the SEC). SEC is projected to get seven teams in the tournament.
1. Alabama (7-1) - 5 of the next 6 against bottom 4 in SEC. SEC Championship is probable.
2. Florida (6-2) - UK, UT, UGA all coming up
3. Tennessee (5-3) - next five is round robin of the East
4. Georgia (5-4) - high enough RPI that they can get in with a 3-4 finish.
5. Kentucky (4-3) - highest RPI in SEC, probable lock. UF, UT, Vandy coming up next.
6. Vanderbilt (4-4) - RPI of 19, good probability of falling down
Mississippi State (4-4) - 4 of next 5 are against teams rated below them. With the East beating up on one another - a good chance to move up.
South Carolina (4-4) - UF, UGA, UT, UK coming up. Could easily be 4-8.
9. Arkansas (4-5) - favorable schedule down the end.
10. Ole Miss (3-5) - with RPI at 53 and win vs. UK, needs to start winning. Two shots at Bama coming up.
11. LSU (2-6) - no chance for tourney
12. Auburn (1-8) - no chance for tourney
What MSU needs to do.
Definitely needs to beat Arkansas Wednesday night. Cannot slip up at Auburn, and needs to take down Ole Miss, LSU and South Carolina at home. Needs at least one of (at Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Arkansas) to get to 10 wins and the bubble. If they get two of them, I think that we are in based on finish in the SEC of around 3/4, meaning 3-4 top 40 RPI teams are below us in the standings.
Game that is going to sting: That loss to Vandy is going to bite us I'm afraid. If we would have held on, we are 5-3 in third place, with two high quality wins.
The big one: Kentucky on the road may be too much to ask, but it would be huge, especially if we could parlay it with a win in Knoxville or Fayetteville down the stretch.
Cannot lose: Got to take care of business at home, and got to win at Auburn.
Would help: If South Carolina and Vandy or Georgia went on a losing streak. We need to finish a solid two games ahead of at least two of the three.
The East Tennessee and Florida Atlantic losses aren't as bad as they seemed at the time. They both have a good shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Hawaii is our worst loss.
Overall SEC standings (How the NCAA committee sees the SEC). SEC is projected to get seven teams in the tournament.
1. Alabama (7-1) - 5 of the next 6 against bottom 4 in SEC. SEC Championship is probable.
2. Florida (6-2) - UK, UT, UGA all coming up
3. Tennessee (5-3) - next five is round robin of the East
4. Georgia (5-4) - high enough RPI that they can get in with a 3-4 finish.
5. Kentucky (4-3) - highest RPI in SEC, probable lock. UF, UT, Vandy coming up next.
6. Vanderbilt (4-4) - RPI of 19, good probability of falling down
Mississippi State (4-4) - 4 of next 5 are against teams rated below them. With the East beating up on one another - a good chance to move up.
South Carolina (4-4) - UF, UGA, UT, UK coming up. Could easily be 4-8.
9. Arkansas (4-5) - favorable schedule down the end.
10. Ole Miss (3-5) - with RPI at 53 and win vs. UK, needs to start winning. Two shots at Bama coming up.
11. LSU (2-6) - no chance for tourney
12. Auburn (1-8) - no chance for tourney
What MSU needs to do.
Definitely needs to beat Arkansas Wednesday night. Cannot slip up at Auburn, and needs to take down Ole Miss, LSU and South Carolina at home. Needs at least one of (at Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Arkansas) to get to 10 wins and the bubble. If they get two of them, I think that we are in based on finish in the SEC of around 3/4, meaning 3-4 top 40 RPI teams are below us in the standings.
Game that is going to sting: That loss to Vandy is going to bite us I'm afraid. If we would have held on, we are 5-3 in third place, with two high quality wins.
The big one: Kentucky on the road may be too much to ask, but it would be huge, especially if we could parlay it with a win in Knoxville or Fayetteville down the stretch.
Cannot lose: Got to take care of business at home, and got to win at Auburn.
Would help: If South Carolina and Vandy or Georgia went on a losing streak. We need to finish a solid two games ahead of at least two of the three.
The East Tennessee and Florida Atlantic losses aren't as bad as they seemed at the time. They both have a good shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Hawaii is our worst loss.
Auburn and South Carolina were both left out in 2009 after going 10-6 in the conference, and neither had nearly as bad of a nonconference season that year as we did this year.