Timeline for Kiffin's inevitable departure to Florida

[BulldawgFan]

I can't recall a coach switching teams mid-season so I'm hoping someone more knowledgeable has some answers.

I assume Florida wants their new coach and for it to be locked in as quickly as possible, especially given the amount of other teams also searching.


I imagine 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1:
-Florida wants and offers Kiffin
-Kiffin wants to go to Florida

What is the timeline for a contract being signed?
Does Kiffin sign a top-secret contract this week and finish the season at Ole Miss? There's no way that would remain secret so Kiffin may as well depart mid-season at that point.
Or will any contract that is signed be signed after the regular season? If Ole Miss makes the playoffs, does he bail before then or does he stick it out and risk missing out on the Florida job?

Scenario 2:
-Florida wants and offers Kiffin
-Kiffin is interested but not certain and needs time to decide

I assume Florida isn't reaching out only to Kiffin. Do they tell the other targets (Drink, Freeman, etc.) that "Hey, we want you but only if Kiffin doesn't accept our offer."?

I hope it plays out like Scenario 2 and Kiffin signs in December. That will put Ole Miss well behind on their coaching search and recruiting.

 

[POTUS]

James Franklin to Florida seems too obvious. He could start recruiting now. He's won more than any coach that would be available.

 

[BulldawgFan]

James Franklin to Florida seems too obvious. He could start recruiting now. He's won more than any coach that would be available.

If I were an AD I’d be all over Franklin. Especially knowing that you can pay him $500k and Penn State will pay him an additional $7.5M.

But I imagine Stricklin needs a big splash hire like Kiffin. Frankin would have the perception of damaged goods to a lot of the fanbase.

 

[Predestined]

Precisely. Stricklin needs a home run hire and unfortunately for him, he doesn't have many home run swings. The fans as so slathering over Kiffin, failure to get him won't be tolerated.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Stricklin is in a situation much like Zac was with the baseball hire. No room for error and a splash had to be made. Zac was successful, will Scott?

 

[HailStout]

ole Miss is going to pay him whatever it takes, even if it ends up hurting them in the long run.

 

[Faustdog]

I don't think a coach who was just fired for never winning the big game is going to fly with the Florida fanbase right now.

 

[ronpolk]

I actually believe that Kiffin may also try to feel out some NFL jobs. Not sure anyone in the NFL is interested.

 

[11thEagleFan]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

 

[BulldawgFan]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

Layla attended UF from 92-96 and is apparently still a huge Gator fan. Her dad played football there. I imagine she'd love going back to Gainesville.

 

[Baddog11]

I’m not sure what you see in James Franklin. We’ll see what happens on his rebound.

 

[Faustdog]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

I don't think these high level coaching families operate on the same level as most of us. They are used to moving. And frankly it's a much easier process when have their kind of money in the bank and an athletic department coordinating everything for you.

Layla's father was a star Florida Gator quarterback. She grew up a fan. She grew up in Florida. I don't think she will mind a move there.

And how many college students prefer their parents in town on a permanent basis?

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

If I were an AD I’d be all over Franklin. Especially knowing that you can pay him $500k and Penn State will pay him an additional $7.5M.

But I imagine Stricklin needs a big splash hire like Kiffin. Frankin would have the perception of damaged goods to a lot of the fanbase.

My understanding of the offset language in Franklin's contract with Penn State requires him to not only seek similar employment but prevents him from taking a job at salary below market value.

Stricklin would probably enjoy 17'ing Ole Miss season with this coaching season

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

Except she went to Florida and her dad played QB there. He'd be taking her home, not some random city.

 

[RocketDawg]

If Kiffin leaves, it'll be the day after he swears up and down he loves the place and will be there forever. Think Tuberville and Mullen.

 

[JackShephard]

I can't recall a coach switching teams mid-season so I'm hoping someone more knowledgeable has some answers.

I assume Florida wants their new coach and for it to be locked in as quickly as possible, especially given the amount of other teams also searching.


I imagine 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1:
-Florida wants and offers Kiffin
-Kiffin wants to go to Florida

What is the timeline for a contract being signed?
Does Kiffin sign a top-secret contract this week and finish the season at Ole Miss? There's no way that would remain secret so Kiffin may as well depart mid-season at that point.
Or will any contract that is signed be signed after the regular season? If Ole Miss makes the playoffs, does he bail before then or does he stick it out and risk missing out on the Florida job?

Scenario 2:
-Florida wants and offers Kiffin
-Kiffin is interested but not certain and needs time to decide

I assume Florida isn't reaching out only to Kiffin. Do they tell the other targets (Drink, Freeman, etc.) that "Hey, we want you but only if Kiffin doesn't accept our offer."?

I hope it plays out like Scenario 2 and Kiffin signs in December. That will put Ole Miss well behind on their coaching search and recruiting.

Sounds like desperate wish casting. Just let it play out. If he goes he goes, if he stays he stays.

 

[patdog]

I’m not sure what you see in James Franklin. We’ll see what happens on his rebound.

He wins a lot of the little games. If that's enough for Florida, he's their man.

 

[patdog]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

I don't think so. I think he either leaves now, or he's there 10 years from now. These opportunities don't come around often and you can't control when you get that opportunity. Of course, we don't know for sure that he would even be Florida's first choice or Penn State's. And we don't know if the LSU, Texas or FSU jobs will come open. So all this speculation could be about nothing.

 

[patdog]

If I were an AD I’d be all over Franklin. Especially knowing that you can pay him $500k and Penn State will pay him an additional $7.5M.

I doubt it's that simple. Penn St. would simply quit paying him and fight it out in court. And they'd win.

 

[BulldawgFan]

Sounds like desperate wish casting. Just let it play out. If he goes he goes, if he stays he stays.

100% it's wish casting. Not desperate though. Kiffin being at Ole Miss hasn't been good for us so the sooner he leaves, the better.

It's similar to Ole Miss fans hoping for and celebrating when Mullen left for UF.

 

[johnson86-1]

If I were an AD I’d be all over Franklin. Especially knowing that you can pay him $500k and Penn State will pay him an additional $7.5M.

$500k isn't going to fly. They could probably get away with paying him $4M a year, which would put him between Lebby and Clark Lea, and I think it'd be somewhat hard for PSU to say that they were willing to pay him to not coach but that his market value was more than $4M a year, which wouldn't even be the lowest paid SEC head coach. If I were Florida, if Franklin wanted to sign a contract for the remainder of his PSU contract at $4M a year, I'd be hard pressed to pay Kiffen $13M a year, even though I think Kiffin would do better.

But I imagine Stricklin needs a big splash hire like Kiffin. Frankin would have the perception of damaged goods to a lot of the fanbase.

Precisely. Stricklin needs a home run hire and unfortunately for him, he doesn't have many home run swings. The fans as so slathering over Kiffin, failure to get him won't be tolerated.

I don't think a coach who was just fired for never winning the big game is going to fly with the Florida fanbase right now.

Agree with all of these statements. They are not going to want a coach that was just fired, even if Franklin's overall resume is still pretty good. But it'd take admitting that they fired Mullen and paid him not to coach, only to downgrade to sunbelt Billy, and now they are going to pay Sunbelt Billy to not coach in order to hire somebody that appears to basically be another Mullen, except that he doesn't complain about recruiting.

 

[BulldawgFan]

I doubt it's that simple. Penn St. would simply quit paying him and fight it out in court. And they'd win.

Franklin is required by the contract to search for another job and to make an effort to maximize his pay. A good lawyer could argue that he deserves no more than $2-3 million given his damaged goods status.

Penn State would absolutely be on the hook for the $4-5 million offset in salary based on the wording of his contract.

 

[patdog]

Franklin is required by the contract to search for another job and to make an effort to maximize his pay. A good lawyer could argue that he deserves no more than $2-3 million given his damaged goods status.

Penn State would absolutely be on the hook for the $4-5 million offset in salary based on the wording of his contract.

If he gets the Northwestern job, that argument might fly. But if he were to get the Florida job, that would be laughed out of court. He might could get by with UF paying him $6M leaving Penn St on the hook for $1.5M, but that's about it. Reality, if he gets the Florida job, he's probably going to make $9M+ there anyway.

 

[Drebin]

Lane Kiffin will leave for another job.

In 2 years. That’s my unpopular prediction. After his kid finishes college, and his other kid finishes high school. He just moved Layla to Oxford, and I would imagine she would be pissed if he took off and left them stranded. She still remembers how Tennessee fans treated them. He will get a big pay raise at Ole Miss.

Layla could still live in Oxford.

Look they may love Oxford. They could still live there in the offseason. But if Florida wants him, that's where he'll be. If Florida wanted Lebby, there'd be nothing we could do about it either.

 

[dorndawg]

If he gets the Northwestern job, that argument might fly. But if he were to get the Florida job, that would be laughed out of court. He might could get by with UF paying him $6M leaving Penn St on the hook for $1.5M, but that's about it. Reality, if he gets the Florida job, he's probably going to make $9M+ there anyway.

Yep, Bert Bielma tried that okey-doke when he took a job making 150k with the NY Giants, I beleive. The contracts are pretty clear and these schools aren't paying the huge buy-outs we all hear about, by and large.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

As much as we’d like it, he’s not going to UF, that place is a dumpster fire. Unless a top 5 job or the NFL comes calling, he’ll be in Oxford through the 2027 season (Knox’s senior HS season). The wildcard is LSU, probably the easiest place to win a natty.

 

[patdog]

As much as we’d like it, he’s not going to UF, that place is a dumpster fire. Unless a top 5 job or the NFL comes calling, he’ll be in Oxford through the 2027 season (Knox’s senior HS season). The wildcard is LSU, probably the easiest place to win a natty.

Don't kid yourself. There's about 12-14 elite jobs in the country, and Florida is solidly one of them, along with close to half of the rest of the SEC.
Florida
Georgia
Bama
LSU
Texas
A&M
Tennessee (maybe)
Miami
Florida St
Ohio St
Michigan
Penn St
Oregon (maybe)
Notre Dame

 

[Perd Hapley]

Not sure if original poster was serious, but there’s no way in hell that Kiffin is leaving for UF before OM is done playing football this season.

These things are all certain:

1) UF has high interest in Kiffin, maybe the most of any candidate.

2) Kiffin has high interest in UF. Any other scenario seems impossible….in his shoes. He still may not leave, but it’s a certainty that he has either already told them he wants the job, or he has told them he has high interest but is still committed to OM through the season. He definitely hasn’t told them “no thanks”.

3) This weekend likely determines if OM wins 10 games or 11 games. Long story short….they are making the playoff, and will be playing in high stakes games until December 19th at the earliest. They are competing for a title right now. If they get a Top 4 seed, that moves back to December 31st at earliest.

4) Based on all of the above, UF can’t officially lock up Kiffin until late December. They’ll have to string it out a long time without making the hire official, and provide lots of time for Kiffin to change his mind, get other offers, etc. Or, they’ll have to force the issue and make him leave by early December or move on to another candidate. But if its Kiffin or bust, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

5) If UF wanted Franklin, they’d already have him.

The likely path for UF / Kiffin is to have him sign a MOU if and when he decides he wants the job for sure. The MOU’s aren’t legally binding, but they do offer some legal assurances and protections that keep him from taking another job that’s not UF or OM. Essentially UF can claim dibs, and pursue legal action against Kiffin and/or another school if he is offered a contract that meets MOU terms, but still opts for a different one.

What they would likely do is send him the MOU and have a deadline for him to sign (like 1 week before season’s end), then move on if he doesn’t. That provides the needed transparency to both parties.

 

[patdog]

One interesting time line comparison. When Penn St. fired Franklin, Indiana announced they had signed a new deal with their coach on Thursday. It's Thursday and so far crickets chirping out of Oxford.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Not sure if original poster was serious, but there’s no way in hell that Kiffin is leaving for UF before OM is done playing football this season.

These things are all certain:

1) UF has high interest in Kiffin, maybe the most of any candidate.

2) Kiffin has high interest in UF. Any other scenario seems impossible….in his shoes. He still may not leave, but it’s a certainty that he has either already told them he wants the job, or he has told them he has high interest but is still committed to OM through the season. He definitely hasn’t told them “no thanks”.

3) This weekend likely determines if OM wins 10 games or 11 games. Long story short….they are making the playoff, and will be playing in high stakes games until December 19th at the earliest. They are competing for a title right now. If they get a Top 4 seed, that moves back to December 31st at earliest.

4) Based on all of the above, UF can’t officially lock up Kiffin until late December. They’ll have to string it out a long time without making the hire official, and provide lots of time for Kiffin to change his mind, get other offers, etc. Or, they’ll have to force the issue and make him leave by early December or move on to another candidate. But if its Kiffin or bust, they don’t have a lot of leverage.

5) If UF wanted Franklin, they’d already have him.

The likely path for UF / Kiffin is to have him sign a MOU if and when he decides he wants the job for sure. The MOU’s aren’t legally binding, but they do offer some legal assurances and protections that keep him from taking another job that’s not UF or OM. Essentially UF can claim dibs, and pursue legal action against Kiffin and/or another school if he is offered a contract that meets MOU terms, but still opts for a different one.

What they would likely do is send him the MOU and have a deadline for him to sign (like 1 week before season’s end), then move on if he doesn’t. That provides the needed transparency to both parties.

Has Jimmy Sexton joined the chat?

 

[patdog]

Has Jimmy Sexton joined the chat?

I could see Kiffin leaving after the Egg Bowl, even if Mississippi does make the playoffs.

 

[Perd Hapley]

One interesting time line comparison. When Penn St. fired Franklin, Indiana announced they had signed a new deal with their coach on Thursday. It's Thursday and so far crickets chirping out of Oxford.

I don’t think Cignetti was ever a target for Penn State. He’s 64….getting kinda long in the tooth. I think they’ll want a younger guy.

 

[BulldawgFan]

I could see Kiffin leaving after the Egg Bowl, even if Mississippi does make the playoffs.

I think he has to if he truly wants to go to Florida. Otherwise Florida runs the risk of Lane backing out in late December (if Ole Miss makes a playoff run) and then other targets signing elsewhere in the meantime. Then Florida is left holding the bag and I don't think they'll let that happen.

 

[Perd Hapley]

$500k isn't going to fly. They could probably get away with paying him $4M a year, which would put him between Lebby and Clark Lea, and I think it'd be somewhat hard for PSU to say that they were willing to pay him to not coach but that his market value was more than $4M a year, which wouldn't even be the lowest paid SEC head coach.

It doesn’t have to fly for anyone except Franklin, and the final amount he gets paid doesn’t change at all….whether his next job’s salary is $1 or $7.5 million. It’s in his best interest to accept the lowest possible salary allowed by Florida state law for the position, so that he has more NIL money in the kitty.

 

[patdog]

It doesn’t have to fly for anyone except Franklin, and the final amount he gets paid doesn’t change at all….whether his next job’s salary is $1 or $7.5 million. It’s in his best interest to accept the lowest possible salary allowed by Florida state law for the position, so that he has more NIL money in the kitty.

He has to make a "good faith" effort. Now there is a lot of leeway in that term. But taking a high school job or the Florida job for clearly under market value isn't even close to a good faith effort.

 

[RecurveReb]

It's similar to Ole Miss fans hoping for and celebrating when Mullen left for UF.

 

[johnson86-1]

It doesn’t have to fly for anyone except Franklin, and the final amount he gets paid doesn’t change at all….whether his next job’s salary is $1 or $7.5 million. It’s in his best interest to accept the lowest possible salary allowed by Florida state law for the position, so that he has more NIL money in the kitty.

PSU and Franklin could have drafted their contract that way. They could have made the buyout not subject to any setoff (I think A&M famously gave Sumlin the first high profile buyout with no duty to mitigate or offset from a replacement job). But if it's more typical buyout language, particularly if it's close to the full amount of the contract, he would have a duty to mitigate and if he takes a job that is indefensibly below market value, he is going to be at risk of them suing and claiming that market value should be imputed to him. This is basically what happened to Bert after leaving arkansas and taking an NFL DL coach position for like $275k. THink they argued that that was underpaid for an NFL DL coach. They may have also argued that he could have gotten a G5 head coaching job or a coordinator job somewhere and that he didn't try because he wanted to collect money from Arkansas.

 

[POTUS]

He wins a lot of the little games. If that's enough for Florida, he's their man.

Franklin: 17-26 against Top 25
Kiffin @ Ole Miss: 11-24 against Top 25

18 of Franklin's losses are against Top 5 teams. So against 6-25 he's 16-8.
Kiffin is 1-2 @ Ole Miss against Top 5 teams. So against 6-25 he's 10-22.

Never let stats get in the way of a narrative though.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I see multiple posters with 'reb' in the name participating in this thread, which tells me they have their antennae up. Seems like they are on Kiffin watch like the rest of you.

PS totally unrelated but this town might need an enema.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Don't kid yourself. There's about 12-14 elite jobs in the country, and Florida is solidly one of them, along with close to half of the rest of the SEC.
Florida
Georgia
Bama
LSU
Texas
A&M
Tennessee (maybe)
Miami
Florida St
Ohio St
Michigan
Penn St
Oregon (maybe)
Notre Dame

Here are the elite jobs: TOSU, UGA, Bama, Texas. These are the next two: LSU, Oregon. These are turn key jobs, everything in place to compete for a natty next season.

Since Urban left, UF had been a dumpster fire for coaches. All Kiffin has to do is look at Mullen, Dan left a spot where he had a loaded team and could have many 8-4 seasons, 7-5 seasons before his seat got hot.

UF is a good job, better than OM, but currently not a better situation than OM.