we win tonight - we will be a 4 or 5 seed. We lose - we are in the 7-10 range.
Tonight's game defines our seeding in my opinion...
- Thread starter dawgstudent
- Start date
At some point we have to win the big one. Tonight is a chance to make up for Kentucky.
We are playing the 3 team in the country right now and odds show MSU losing.
If we lose and it isn't a blowout, it shouldn't be a surprise and shouldn't hurt how the program is viewed for tournament seeding.
This is the type of game you hope to see MSU is +/-5 points with 2 minutes left. Then regardless of the outcome, it was a good match up.
If we lose and it isn't a blowout, it shouldn't be a surprise and shouldn't hurt how the program is viewed for tournament seeding.
This is the type of game you hope to see MSU is +/-5 points with 2 minutes left. Then regardless of the outcome, it was a good match up.
No moral victories but if we lose I hope it's close just for the team's confidence. This conference schedule is like playing in the sweet 16 every week and the SEC tourney will be tougher from a concentration of good teams than the NCAA tourney this year.
win tonight and we force the Coaches Poll to rank us 26th
Last I saw Fla. was a 1.5 point favorite. That's 2 free throws. Hope they have been practicing FTs.
I don't think that UF is unbeatable by any stretch, but it does feel like you need a team to be clicking on all cylinders to knock them off, and we're a V6 that's been running on 4 of them for over a month now.
Until State wins a game like this, I'll have a hard time believing that we can
Until State wins a game like this, I'll have a hard time believing that we can
depending on where you look, some have us as the 1.5 favorite and some have Florida as the 1.5 favorite.
MGM, FanDuel have us favored. Bally's and BetRivers have Florida as a 4.5 favorite.
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This games doesnt mean any more than any other quad 1 game... and win at Alabama would move our needle more.
Regardless.. it'll take more than jsut this win to get to the 4-5 line.... our net is currently 30. We arent jumping 7-8 teams with this win.
Regardless.. it'll take more than jsut this win to get to the 4-5 line.... our net is currently 30. We arent jumping 7-8 teams with this win.
It will be a big win, but not a big upset. #3 at #22 spread is basically a pick 'em.
It does mean more than any other quad 1. Beating #75 net Liberty on the road vs beating #5 net Florida at home are both quad 1 wins, but affects net completely different. This win will move the needle in the net rankings.
It doesnt. The minor numbers move a little but nothing thats going to move the needle at an extreme at this point. Yes this win will mean more than liberty... but it'll be very similar to winning against Ole Miss on the road. Actually beating Ole Miss on the road would probably be better for us net rankings wise... as winning road games is huge in the net.
but as is, the game tonight, when we have some many games built in to to the schedule at point... needle wont move much more than any other quad 1 game at this point in the season... the flip side is a loss wont kill it either, but getting blown out at home wont be a good thing.
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I expect a blowout tonight. Florida is elite on both ends of the floor.
I just hope another titty Gif thread is not necessary
or maybe i do
actually, post one regardless
or maybe i do
actually, post one regardless
i’m with you. I get all the narratives and that we are at home, but i feel like Florida Is just significantly better than we are
Another factor tonight, SEC standings. With a win, I see us finishing the conference with a 10-8 or possibly 11-7 record. That should be top 4 in the standings and a double bye in the SEC tourny.
There are currently 7 teams with 7+ sec wins. There is absolutely NO way... that 10 wins gets you into the top 4 of the SEC standings.
And 11 is a long shot... Last season 11 wins.. finished 6th.. it took 13 to get into the top 4. That is most likely going to be what it takes this season..
That is correct on 10-8, I was just giving my prediction on standings. The 11-7 I believe will be the 4th place team, could be a tie tho. 2023 and 2021 the 4th place team had 7 losses.
Home wins don’t move the needle as much as you’d think for a game like this but home losses hurt, even against elite teams.
We’re probably a 7 seed going into tonight. A win I think puts us in the 6 seed conversation. A loss and you’re borderline 8 seed and the pressure stays on you.
We’re probably a 7 seed going into tonight. A win I think puts us in the 6 seed conversation. A loss and you’re borderline 8 seed and the pressure stays on you.
I don't think it meant literally win this one game and we can lose out the rest.
If we win this game, a 6-2 finish looks doable. Would still take us playing great basketball, but it would be great basketball just like we presumably played to beat Florida.
If we lose at home to FLorida, we're then:
@Ole Miss (tough win to get on the road)
v. A&M (probably a coin toss because we're at home)
@Oklahoma (a game we should win, but on the road)
@Bama (as close to a sure loss as probably any game other than @Auburn)
v. LSU (somebody we should beat at home)
v. Tex (another team we should beat at home)
@Arkansas (a team that may be turning it around, but on the road regardless)
Just looks like a potential 3-5 finish if we start off with a loss to Florida. But even if you assume a 4-4 finish, I think the difference between an 9-9 SEC record and a 11-7 SEC record is going to be pretty significant in tournament seeding because there's probably going to be a logjam of SEC teams in between those two records.
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Pretty even split between 6 and 7 going into tonight. We would move up to 5 seed on a few brackets with a W. Should finish pretty strong with our remaining schedule on our way to the 4 seed.
Our schedule was front loaded. For example here is Alabama's remaining schedule:
@ Texas
vs #1 Auburn
@ #21 Missouri
vs #15 Kentucky
vs #22 Mississippi State
@ #5 Tennessee
vs #3 Florida
@ #1 Auburn
This exactly. Home wins at this point don’t help near as much as home losses hurt
The games that will move the needle the most for us are at ole miss and at Alabama
Before teams got added to the conference. Less teams play each other twice.
10 wins isn’t going to be top 4. And when you look at the schedule of the teams ahead of us. Thinking that those there won’t be 4 teams reach 12 wins is a long long long shot
I think we’d have to have quite a strong finish to get a 4 seed. Our most likely landing spot is somewhere in the 5 to 8 range, IMO.
You do realize to get a 4 seed we would have to pass about 15 teams down the stretch.
A 4 seed at this point would take a remarkable finish.. and likely need to include a deep run in the sec tourney or winning at Alabama
I'm not saying it will happen, but it would literally happen this week. If we beat #5 UF and #19 OM on the road, we would be top 15, projected 4 seed, and top 20 net. Just showing you how fast it can happen, but, we have a lot more winnable games after this week.
Nah. That wouldn’t happen this week even with those wins…. Probably a 5. But would depend on who else wins or loses too
I’m not sure what metrics you are using to determine seeds. Seems like you are looking at mock brackets or AP polls and stuff… which mean next to nothing
The losses to Missouri and Alabama didn’t knock us out of the tournament. The wins to ole miss and Florida aren’t going to magically turn us into a top 15 net
Top 15 AP, not 20 net. We would only pass 8 teams to get to a 4 seed. If we pass 15 teams, we will be a 2 seed. Now that would be a magical run.
Top 15 AP means nothing. The AP doesn’t select or seed the tournament
our net is 30. Which is what the ncaa has adopted as its main formula for seeding and selection. We would need to be top 16 or very close to it to earn a top 4 seed… and as already stated the Florida win isn’t going to move the net needle as much as you think… us jumping from 30 to the top 16 after this week would take not only us winning but a lot of other teams losing and losing badly
I’m not a gambler, but that seems odd. Is it normal to see discrepancies like that?