Tough conversation: is Allar good enough?

Calabrin

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Without getting too deep, it does have to be normalized.
Here is the relevant "Cliff's Notes"


On average, "not top 30" defenses give up around 26 points per game.

On average, Top 30 defenses give up around 20 points per game.

One would expect that a given offense would either score less than 20 against top defenses, AND less than 26 against average defenses.
Or more than 20, AND more than 26.... depending on how good their offense is.

Kotelnicki offenses have averaged around 32 against "not top 30" defenses (well over what would be expected given the quality of opposition), and around 17 against top 30 defenses (well below what would be expected given the quality of opposition)..... some folks won't understand that, and that's OK.
But what that means is you have performance that is very good - ALL things considered - against mediocre, but poor performance- ALL things considered - against quality. (Really, very similar to CJF PSU teams' W/L performance against good vs mediocre teams).
And that any offense, on average, would score roughly 6-7 ppg less against quality (top 30) teams.
Kotelnicki teams have scored 15 MORE against mediocre - or 15 LESS against quality (depending on how you want to look at it). A rather large and out of line disparity over 110 or so total games.

It is what it is.
So far, the same has played out at PSU for Kotelnicki (though it is a small sample size at PSU thus far)
Nice post. I appreciate the insight.
 

KingLando

Senior
Nov 29, 2021
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What did I say that was dishonest? Quote me directly.
Where did I attack you? Quote me directly.
Everything you've said has been dishonest
Read your response to my stalker
You can't take accountability for your actions--just like Beau
 

Calabrin

All-Conference
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Allar needs to keep the ball more on the options. Right now, the defenses are guessing he is going to hand the ball off and not run it himself and they are right 100% of the time. Hopefully the coaches are telling him to hand it off because of the level of competition and chance of injury when he runs the ball. However, if you are not practicing your reads and when you should keep the ball, it may be hard to turn it on when the big games happen.
The bigger issue (at least on Saturday) is that the O-line is blowing their assignments.

As the Tengwall analysis video showed, there's guys standing in space blocking no one while Drew eats dirt, or the backs get stuffed.

The O-line play has been inexcusably poor through two games. They bring that garbage into September 27 and we're not just going to lose, we are going to get annihilated.
 
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Moogy

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Without getting too deep, it does have to be normalized.
Here is the relevant "Cliff's Notes"


On average, "not top 30" defenses give up around 26 points per game.

On average, Top 30 defenses give up around 20 points per game.

One would expect that a given offense would either score less than 20 against top defenses, AND less than 26 against average defenses.
Or more than 20, AND more than 26.... depending on how good their offense is.

Kotelnicki offenses have averaged around 32 against "not top 30" defenses (well over what would be expected given the quality of opposition), and around 17 against top 30 defenses (well below what would be expected given the quality of opposition)..... some folks won't understand that, and that's OK.
But what that means is you have performance that is very good - ALL things considered - against mediocre, but poor performance- ALL things considered - against quality. (Really, very similar to CJF PSU teams' W/L performance against good vs mediocre teams).
And that any offense, on average, would score roughly 6-7 ppg less against quality (top 30) teams.
Kotelnicki teams have scored 15 MORE against mediocre - or 15 LESS against quality (depending on how you want to look at it). A rather large and out of line disparity over 110 or so total games.

It is what it is.
So far, the same has played out at PSU for Kotelnicki (though it is a small sample size at PSU thus far)

Where are you getting your numbers from? Where's the analysis? Why are you lumping into "top 30" and "the other 100+"? There's wide, wide variance between the 31st and the 133rd. Why not do it by groups of 30, or other equal groupings?
 
Sep 10, 2013
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Right there with you. I think he's a good to maybe even very good college QB but he's not great or elite yet. I also think if stays at very good we should be good enough to win a NC.
Watch Caleb this year, tonite even. His first year he learned from the worst offensive mind in football. This year and throughout his rookie contract under the care of one of the nfls best offensive minds, watch him blossom
does Franklin/15 = eberflus/Caleb?

cheat code: yes
 

Moogy

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2017
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Without getting too deep, it does have to be normalized.
Here is the relevant "Cliff's Notes"


On average, "not top 30" defenses give up around 26 points per game.

On average, Top 30 defenses give up around 20 points per game.

One would expect that a given offense would either score less than 20 against top defenses, AND less than 26 against average defenses.
Or more than 20, AND more than 26.... depending on how good their offense is.

Kotelnicki offenses have averaged around 32 against "not top 30" defenses (well over what would be expected given the quality of opposition), and around 17 against top 30 defenses (well below what would be expected given the quality of opposition)..... some folks won't understand that, and that's OK.
But what that means is you have performance that is very good - ALL things considered - against mediocre, but poor performance- ALL things considered - against quality. (Really, very similar to CJF PSU teams' W/L performance against good vs mediocre teams).
And that any offense, on average, would score roughly 6-7 ppg less against quality (top 30) teams.
Kotelnicki teams have scored 15 MORE against mediocre - or 15 LESS against quality (depending on how you want to look at it). A rather large and out of line disparity over 110 or so total games.

It is what it is.
So far, the same has played out at PSU for Kotelnicki (though it is a small sample size at PSU thus far)
I just did 2021-2024 (not including this year, because that would really skew the results (the top 30 defenses so far this year are averaging only 7.9 ppg, for example), and the top 30 defenses averaged 18.6 ppg and "the rest" averaged 28.5. That's from the scoring defenses section of cfbstats.com.

So the spread is nearly 10 points, not 6.

And Kotelnicki's offenses have scored an average of 18.6 against top 30 and 35.9 against non-top 30 (this excludes FCS opponents). It seems like that's at least a bit skewed by a lackluster first season at Kansas (very low scoring against "top" defenses), OT games where extra points were tacked on, and playing a lot of real bad defenses (not just not top 30, but lower half and worse).
 
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sr108

Redshirt
Jan 13, 2004
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Former 5* prized recruit and now third year starting QB - I think everyone can agree that Allar has IMPROVED every year since arriving at PSU. But is this another case of looks the part vs actual production?

What is Allar’s best game of his career? USC? He also threw two picks in that game. Likely, what we’d come up with was a game vs mediocre to bad competition. He has yet to put together a good performance against an elite defense in his career. His MENTAL aspect of the game doesn’t seem strong - emotional, visibly down, seems anxious and nervous in big moments.

He continues to make the same mistakes with his footwork which results in inaccuracies.

Is it finally to admit the deep ball issue is an Allar issue? The WR needs to be 10 yards wide open for him to even throw it, or he regularly under throws the WR. Does he change his mechanics too? It looks like he aims a deep pass.

I don’t want to ignore what we does well, of course - he has a canon of an arm and throws down the middle of the field + across the far hash better than any qb is college. He’s become a hell of an athlete and moves well out of the pocket as well. But after yesterday, I think it’s time to commit to running the ball and taking as much pressure off Allar as possible. Develop the OL and lean totally on our two elite RBs - I’m talking 40-50 rushing attempts a game.
He is good enough if he would simply remember he is playing a game and just have fun out there. He has all the tools, he just needs to as Franklin said, “let it rip”.
 

Calabrin

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Everything you've said has been dishonest
Read your response to my stalker
You can't take accountability for your actions--just like Beau
Two direct challenges, two abject failures. Couldn't cite one example of anything I said that was dishonest. Couldn't cite one example of me attacking you.

Exactly as I predicted.
 

JoeBagobagels

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Jun 24, 2025
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Every OSU fan I know was asking the same question.
The same guy who threw downfield yard across the line of scrimmage when he could’ve made a first down by running? That guy?

Maybe that poor decision factored in the play calling on the last play?
 

KingLando

Senior
Nov 29, 2021
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Two direct challenges, two abject failures. Couldn't cite one example of anything I said that was dishonest. Couldn't cite one example of me attacking you.

Exactly as I predicted.
The whole thread is...I'm not quoting everything knowing you still won't own it. We've established that regardless of the gamed you want to play
 

Calabrin

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The whole thread is...I'm not quoting everything knowing you still won't own it. We've established that regardless of the gamed you want to play
Yes, you are admitting defeat. I'm familiar with how arguments work, especially when people make claims they can't substantiate and then run away.
 
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KingLando

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Yes, you are admitting defeat. I'm familiar with how arguments work, especially when people make claims they can't substantiate and then run away.
Right because that's what you're doing. Hence your familiarity
I'm not even remotely defeated. You're just desperate
 

Moogy

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The mess is Lando. Nobody else. As I said, please Tom take out the trash, it's already been a month and this troll has taken over every thread with troll garbage.
False. This would be the second concurrent like-kind argument Calabrin has been in, and Calabrin got his hand slapped by Tom over that one. I know, because I was the other party. We were scolded. I know you have a hard-on for Lando, to the point where 95% of your posts are about him (obviously a problem unto itself) ... and Lando is obviously a problem ... but he's not the only one.
 
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JoeBagobagels

Sophomore
Jun 24, 2025
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You are nuts. Mcsorley was the best player on the field that game
Did he or did he not throw a pass while under the line of scrimmage when he could’ve ran for a first down late in the game when a field goal would’ve won the game for Penn State?
Did he or did he not throw a critical interception at the end of the USC game and the Rose Bowl leading to USC’s win? Did he did he not do the same thing against Pitt late inthe game?

Mcsorely dod have in the upper 400 yard range in total offense in the osu 2018 and he also blew it late in the game. Both can be correct.
 

MtNittany

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I will say that the OC and Drew at times seem to be in the same incongruent space between skill set and play calling as Franklin was w/ Hack.

I don't think PSU has thrown the ball down the field as much as I expected. I guess I expected more possessions, but the defense and the running game hasn't provided them. I expected three or four 50+ yard runs by now.
 

rudedude

Heisman
Sep 28, 2002
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I will say that the OC and Drew at times seem to be in the same incongruent space between skill set and play calling as Franklin was w/ Hack.

I don't think PSU has thrown the ball down the field as much as I expected. I guess I expected more possessions, but the defense and the running game hasn't provided them. I expected three or four 50+ yard runs by now.
There should have been more long runs especially from Singelton, but he does not appear to have awareness of cutback lanes. He likes to run straight ahead. He had lots of lanes vs FIU but he didn’t make the cut to the open. Same thing with Allar on an option play, several times on Saturday, if he kept the ball, he would still be running. Having Drew make some runs helps back off a defense and sets up other plays. Hell, even Clifford would run.
 

VaDave4PSU

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Watch Caleb this year, tonite even. His first year he learned from the worst offensive mind in football. This year and throughout his rookie contract under the care of one of the nfls best offensive minds, watch him blossom
does Franklin/15 = eberflus/Caleb?

cheat code: yes

Caleb looked exactly the same with Ben. Hot first drive, then nothing for the next 55 minutes. First drive is usually scripted.
 

Nittering Nabob

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There should have been more long runs especially from Singelton, but he does not appear to have awareness of cutback lanes. He likes to run straight ahead. He had lots of lanes vs FIU but he didn’t make the cut to the open. Same thing with Allar on an option play, several times on Saturday, if he kept the ball, he would still be running. Having Drew make some runs helps back off a defense and sets up other plays. Hell, even Clifford would run.
Nick seems disinterested and self-perturbed at coming back to PSU given the state of the OL.

Trautwein needs to figure this out quickly. The pressure is on him and not Franklin.

Hot Seat = Trautwein 🔥🔥🔥
 

VaDave4PSU

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Yes, ur rite but too. “Watch Caleb this year, tonite even.”

I'll take a stab at it, hot take wise: I think the offensive personnel stinks. They wasted a pick on Loveland if they were keeping Kmet and not targeting him 5+ times (see Indy using Warren, 7 targets for a 1st rd TE, Bower the year before for a 1st rd TE).

I don't particularly think much of Williams as a QB, but his skill players are not great and the OL is below average.
 
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thoss

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For two years I've thought Allar was too inconsistent to be a top college QB or a serious NFL prospect. I don't know what the problem is -- god knows you know the guy works really hard on everything, including his mechanics. I think he's got the mental part down pretty well, reads defenses, understands plays. He thinks before he throws and that is usually a good thing. But his inability to be consistently accurate is just such a disadvantage for him -- he doesn't feel safe throwing into tight windows because the INT risk is high.

Hey, he's our QB, you got to support him. He will be good enough to get PSU into the playoff and maybe through a round or two, but then when you hit top secondaries......

I do think people can stop blaming the receivers for 2024. Harrison Wallace's performance so far this year is demonstrating that he was not the problem with the passing game.
 
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LMTLION

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In fantasy land level speculation, would Clifford have done better than Allar in 2024 and thus far in first 2 games in 2025? I think Clifford would’ve beaten Notre Dame last season as he was stronger mentally in big games (but obviously by no means always great in those games.)
 
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VaDave4PSU

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In fantasy land level speculation, would Clifford have done better than Allar in 2024 and thus far in first 2 games in 2025? I think Clifford would’ve beaten Notre Dame last season as he was stronger mentally in big games (but obviously by no means always great in those games.)

I'd say no. Probably would have lost to USC or Minnesota with Clifford at QB. Maybe both.

First 2 of '25 is irrelevant. In '19 we beat Idaho 79-7 and Maryland 59-0 and still wasn't competitive vs OSU while dropping the Minnesota game. You might say Cliff led a victory over Michigan, but that's a win on par with '24 Illinois and nobody juices that game up.
 

KingLando

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I do think people can stop blaming the receivers for 2024. Harrison Wallace's performance so far this year is demonstrating that he was not the problem with the passing game.
He had a huge week 1 for us last year as well--not sure how you think 2 games proves he's now good
Our WRs were a HUGE issue last year--Drew had no issue getting the ball to Warren