Tour de France question...

[BriantheDawg]

Sesh/pat or whoever...

If I'm not mistaken, Contador gained 39 seconds on Schleck after his chain fell off last Monday, giving him a lead of 8 seconds heading into the time trial. After a quick glance at the overall standings, Contador is now ahead of Schleck by 39 seconds. So, had Schleck been able to hold his 31 second lead going into yesterday's time trial, they'd essentially be tied riding into Paris, correct? It's hard to believe that after 3,000+ km of cycling, a race could be so close....but if they were tied right now - how would the winner be determined?

 

[patdog]

to see if one of them could gain a second on the other and I guess they'd give it to the one who crossed the line first if there wasn't a one second gap. Either that or possibly go back to the time trials and look past the full seconds into the 1/10s and 1/100s of seconds to determine a winner.

 

[opieT]

Pat,

So, with Contador holding a 39 sec lead going into today, is that virtually unbeatable? I understand that if Schleck would have made any kind of strong push, that Contador and his Astana teamates would have squashed any upcoming advance. So today did the Pelloton just move at comfortable pace and everyone pretty much surrender?

 

[elsid76]

My understanding is that it would be decided by who crossed the line first, regardless of them getting
the same time. Very close, 4th closest in tour history. As for Sunday, it is really considered a ceremonial
day for the GC guys with the day going to any break-aways and the sprinters (as it turned out). Glad to
see Cavendish get the final sprint. Next year will be very interesting, depending on the team shifts expected
to take place. Contador now has 3 Tours but also wins in Italy and Spain, making him one of only 5 in history
with wins in all of the big 3. Schleck is only about 2 years younger so the next few years could be some great
cycling if both stay healthy.

 

[seshomoru]

Pat,

So, with Contador holding a 39 sec lead going into today, is that virtually unbeatable? I understand that if Schleck would have made any kind of strong push, that Contador and his Astana teamates would have squashed any upcoming advance. So today did the Pelloton just move at comfortable pace and everyone pretty much surrender?

I'll take it.

Yes. It's unbeatable because it's more or less a ceremonial stage, and you don't attack the yellow on the last day. Even if the lead were one second, and the yellow crashes, has three flats, and loses a limb. You wait on the yellow because he's already won the tour. It's a joy ride into Paris and then it's basically a crit race.

 

[seshomoru]

I think they may have even gone to thousandths of a second for the TT, so that should take care of it. However, if that's level, then they add up the finishing places of each stage. If it's still tied, it's whoever crosses first on the last stage. I won't say never, but the odds of it getting to that are extremely low.

 

[seshomoru]

My understanding is that it would be decided by who crossed the line first, regardless of them getting
the same time. Very close, 4th closest in tour history. As for Sunday, it is really considered a ceremonial
day for the GC guys with the day going to any break-aways and the sprinters (as it turned out). Glad to
see Cavendish get the final sprint. Next year will be very interesting, depending on the team shifts expected
to take place. Contador now has 3 Tours but also wins in Italy and Spain, making him one of only 5 in history
with wins in all of the big 3. Schleck is only about 2 years younger so the next few years could be some great
cycling if both stay healthy.

I can't believe the leap in Schleck's TT from last year. I think that really caught Bertie off guard, but he managed to handle it. I do think Contador had more to give in the mountains, but he was playing it safe. He almost looked like he was toying with Schleck in some instances, just hanging with him to let him know he's not going anywhere and you'll be pulling me up this mountain.

 

[seshomoru]

Contador now has three TdF wins. Probably would have four if Astana wasn't banned in 2008. I'm pretty sure he's about to become strictly a TdF rider like Lance. I wouldn't bet against him getting seven.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

what will Lance's legal outcome be?

Looks like it's building up on him.

 

[BriantheDawg]

it literally could have been a dead even race this year had Schleck not fumbled a gear change and dropped his chain. The 39 second lead Contador rode into Paris with was exactly the time Andy lost last Monday. And if I understood you correctly, had Schleck (or Contador for that matter) been down by a 1 second or less gap heading into Paris, there would not be any threat of either of them trying to make a run for it? Contador, especially, just seems like a guy who will try to win at all cost. I guess every sport has their own kind of etiquette. Never would have thought that though.

 

[patdog]

you don't attack the yellow on the last day. Even if the lead were one second, and the yellow crashes, has three flats, and loses a limb. You wait on the yellow because he's already won the tour.

if the lead is ever only 1 second heading into the final day, there will be onehell of an attack. You don't attack on the final stage with a 39 second deficit because it's impossible to make up that kind of ground on a flat stage. Butif the deficitwas only1 second, you'd attack like hell. Greg Lemond won his firstTDFon the final day, although that was a time trial and nota regular stage.

 

[seshomoru]

you don't attack the yellow on the last day. Even if the lead were one second, and the yellow crashes, has three flats, and loses a limb. You wait on the yellow because he's already won the tour.

if the lead is ever only 1 second heading into the final day, there will be onehell of an attack. You don't attack on the final stage with a 39 second deficit because it's impossible to make up that kind of ground on a flat stage. Butif the deficitwas only1 second, you'd attack like hell. Greg Lemond won his firstTDFon the final day, although that was a time trial and nota regular stage.

1 second wouldn't be possible. The peloton wouldn't let it happen. The only attack group would be the second place rider's team, and they aren't pulling away from the group. Not with a team in yellow and all the sprint teams wanting to win in Paris. Plus, the bad juju you'd get for attacking the yellow on the last day would cost you a lot of appearance money in the following weeks.

 

[seshomoru]

it literally could have been a dead even race this year had Schleck not fumbled a gear change and dropped his chain. The 39 second lead Contador rode into Paris with was exactly the time Andy lost last Monday. <span style="font-weight: bold;">And if I understood you correctly, had Schleck (or Contador for that matter) been down by a 1 second or less gap heading into Paris, there would not be any threat of either of them trying to make a run for it? </span>Contador, especially, just seems like a guy who will try to win at all cost. I guess every sport has their own kind of etiquette. Never would have thought that though.

Yep. Not even Contador would do it. It's an odd sport with all the unwritten rules, but every sport has them. I just mentioned it, but the real money to be made from the tour comes in the following weeks at one day classics and short races. The podium finishers get a nice pay day for appearing in those, and a guy who showed his *** and attacked yellow on the "ceremonial" stage would probably be black balled out of them.

 

[seshomoru]

I guess I can't really back out of my theory that all professional athletes, in every single sport, were doping in the late nineties and early '00s. While he's the most tested athlete ever, that doesn't mean they weren't two to three steps ahead of the game, and most people get caught on the paper trail. That's how this investigator blew open the Balco thing.

What I think is a plus for Lance is that it seems Lemond and Landis will play heavy in it. Lemond has gone bat **** crazy, and Landis has the character of sewer rat. Who knows what sort of info they have and how credible it is. Seems like it would be easy to simply paint them as spiteful liars.

Part of me wants to think it was all about how much money they poured into the team and the quality of riders he had around him (just look at the success of the guys who used to be on his team). Not to mention he trained 100x times harder than anyone else, focused on one race, and his VO2 max and all that is freakish. Of course, another part of me thinks what he did was pretty much impossible without doping.

 

[jacksonreb1]

he's the most tested ath in cycling history if not athletic history and he has NEVER had a positive test. all the rest is just conversation. if i were him i'd just keep pointing to the objective scientific tests and say screw all of you. had he not been so scrutinized then maybe all the talk might hurt him but as it is i just don't see the "evidence' being there.

 

[Eureka Dog]

then Greg LeMond made up a 50 sec. deficit to win by 8 sec. The video of Fignon sitting and crying afterwards,while GL was celebrating,was/is classic.

 

[seshomoru]

The final stage was an individual time trial for some reason. Hasn't been like that since then. Lately it seems to be one of the last stages, but not the final stage.

Of interesting note: That 1989 tour was the first time anyone used aerobars. Lemond was the only one to use them I believe. They caught on pretty quickly after he laid down that TT.

 

[elsid76]

It will be hard for any tour to eclipse the drama of Lemond betting Fignon in that time trial. There was some question going in as to the use of the TT bike/bars. Of course it was approved but they also had handle bar fitting issues as things were not as standardized then as they are now so the bars kept slipping. They had to cut a soda can to make a sleeve to get them to stay tight.

As for Lance, who knows. Lemond has totally discredited himself and needs to just shut up and go away (and take Jimmy Carter with him, but that is another story and not sports related). The positives that GL brought to cycling were fantastic and he was a great guy, very much respected on the bike and off until he decided his personal job was to bring down Lance. I am not a big Armstrong fan but I don't think he should be going through the mud at the hand of Landis and Lemond. As one of the earlier posts said, he should just stick to the facts and science of the most tested athlete ever. Feel free to blast me for not being a big Armstrong fan. It has nothing to do with his accomplishments, they are fantastic and as a cyclist I do appreciate all that he has done for the sport in the US.