UK verses UL recruiting down the stretch
- Thread starter Pike 96
- Start date
Wiggins to Cincy TPE. Is the Looney kid now the apples to apples replacement for Burns? Ugly offer list brother...surprise DB out there or save the skolly?
Who else do you end up with...your official class ending prediction? Pie may be headed to USC? Does Fitzpatrick come back in the fold or Nebraska bound? looks like the RB from Minnesota by way of FL is a good bet. Do you lose anyone? Any surprise gets? class ranking predictions?
On the flip side i have no idea if UK takes anyone else. Maybe Nelson at DE if UGA doesn't offer. Cole transfer from Michigan after signing day., I predict a class ranked 29 and UL 37..
Who else do you end up with...your official class ending prediction? Pie may be headed to USC? Does Fitzpatrick come back in the fold or Nebraska bound? looks like the RB from Minnesota by way of FL is a good bet. Do you lose anyone? Any surprise gets? class ranking predictions?
On the flip side i have no idea if UK takes anyone else. Maybe Nelson at DE if UGA doesn't offer. Cole transfer from Michigan after signing day., I predict a class ranked 29 and UL 37..
Visit was cancelled 2 days ago along with pulling the plug on his in house and apparently a unknown CB that again played very little football but was 3rd Team All State in 8A Football in Florida has a commitable offer for over a week and his taking his official this weekend and I got the vibe that Louisville cancelled Wiggins OV..Also, at the same time the Trayvon Mullens rumblings came about and now is on campus right now on a Unofficial Visit 5 days before NSD...Rivals #10 CB in the nation and counsin of Louisville QB Lamar Jackson...already had a official visit last month here....most thought he would be at FSU this weekend.
High quality prospects including OLB Gary McCrae the 2015 Georgia commit that didn't make it due to academics...on pace to graduate JuCo in one year and it appears he going to commit to Louisville over Michigan State. By graduating in 1 year he has 3 years to play 4. Now my favorite is Brian Lankford-Johnson the RB...Again only 1 year of HS Football but watch his tape...apparently South Carolina inquired late as well.
Actually the trend nationally for Pie Young is Louisville...Fitzpatrick Nebraska...that what makes NSD interesting across the nation.
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Interesting feedback. You know Pie flew out to USC last minute today? I think the trend to UL was before that occurred but we shall see. I also read the trend for Mullens is still LSU. Would be a big get.
Has the McCrea guy visited? Wasn't on,the visitor list so much be off the radar.
Actually I did not know about Pie Young...just got off work and went to the store and catching up...thanks for the info. No, Mullen is in Louisville...that I do know.
McCrae on campus as well...cancelled his OV to Michigan State.
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WR Keyshawn Young....nickname and what he goes by is Pie Young....to Pike most thought his final OV was going to be this wknd at Alabama....Southern Cal already has 5 WR Commits
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It takes BOTH recruiting and COACHING! Yes Stoops CAN recruit and he does very well! But UK is in the vaunted SEC and UL is in the ACC, big difference.
Yeah, you. And Howie. And me. [laughing]
Cats (25 commits; 7 ranked 5.7 or better) seemingly have a calm signing day coming up with no apparent pending surprises, good or bad.
Cards (21 commits; 8 ranked 5.7 or better) have had some recent defections, notably R. Burns to tOSU and B. Buchanan to TN. However, they somehow find themselves in the late running for former 4* WR Card commit D. Fitzpatrick; 4* DB T. Mullens (relative of QB Jackson) and 5.7 3* WR/DB "Pie" Young who has an offer sheet that is the envy of many 4* prospects. A couple of other guys are in the fill-in-the-class category.
Cards may lose 4* DB J. Green due to academics but other commits seem fairly solid.
Peace
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I'm one who will give credit where credit is due and I will concede that you are VERY clever. To wit: I like how you conveniently draw the line of demarcation at 5.7.
Let's look it at another way. Actually, let's look at it in several different ways.
UK has 25 commits, 1 ranked 6.1 or better (actually, there is no better but I digress). Louisville has 21 commits, 0 ranked 6.1 or better.
UK has 25 commits, 5 ranked 5.8 or better. Louisville has 21 commits, 3 ranked 5.8 or better.
UK has 25 commits, 14 ranked 5.6 or better. Louisville has 21 commits, 12 ranked 5.6 or better.
Or, how about this?
UK is currently ranked No. 20, and Louisville is currently ranked No. 37. Time will tell if the gap is closed, and, if so, by how much.
I have not been critical of the Cards' class, but go to the Scout Card board and see the thread about whether UK's class would fall apart. Karma beotch! (Karma is a myth, but hypocrisy is real)
Would take our class over UL's every day of the week and twice on sunday. Let me ask our card fans what position group would you take that UL has in this class over UK?
QB and WR are the only two. And Oline and DB difference (without Green qualifying aren't even close. Games are won at the line of scrimmage. Uk's OL class is top five in the country with a franchise 5 star LT while UL's us extremely questionable to the position they can least afford to wiff on for the next several years.
Well, I agree completely about the O-line recruiting; excellent group for the Cats and a very average group for the Cards. And I totally agree that recruiting OLs in small numbers mean you cannot afford to miss. The unique thing about O-line play is that 1 bad player can really undermine the work of 4 good ones. So in addition to recruiting OLs in numbers (i.e., 5 of 11 offensive players) you need some "insurance" if a recruit does not work out. The point being, if I were a coach, I would probably "over recruit" the O-line almost every year to maintain about 15 scholarship OLs on my roster each year.
I generally don't look at units within a class but the class overall. Each year different schools
Well,, uhhh, thanks...I think. [roll]
I cited Rivals 5.7 or higher prospects because they collectively represent about the top 30% (almost 600 players) of the Rivals database. If all 5.7 and up guys were equally spread among the 65 AQ (i.e., P5 + ND) schools that would be about 9 such players per school. Naturally it does not work that way but it does indicate something of a benchmark for assessing top talent and putting some perspective on an average Rival Ranking (not average star ranking).
On that point, UK's #21 ranking is based on 1702 recruiting points. Points are assigned based on the RR and then bonus points added for players ranked in their top 250. What I did not realize until I looked fairly closely was how much a single 5* prospect can "skew" an overall class ranking based on "points". Young is obviously a terrific prospect but his presence alone accounts for 203 (12%) of UK's recruiting points. Not happening of course but should he not enroll at UK it would drop UK's point based ranking to #37. That almost haves their ranking based on a single player.
There is certainly no good way to do it but I look at recruiting based on 2 things, independent evaluation plus offers, specifically AQ offers. I prefer Rivals but use any ONE service you prefer for all data. At this moment UK has 24 rated commits (Carter not yet rated) with an average RR of 5.59. Those 24 commits hold 73 AQ offers, an average of 3.04 AQ offers/commit. UofL has 21 commits with an average RR of 5.58. Those 21 commits hold 105 AQ offers, an average of 5.0 AQ offers per commit. If you look just a little deeper than a points based ranking these two classes appear very equal.
Peace
I will again congratulate you for your cleverness. You are VERY clever, as I have already said. I like how you will evaluate a class by judging how many combined "AQ" offers you have. This can easily work to your advantage; for example, Jawon Pass, who is probably still in play for poachers, received about 19 AQ offers; Landon Young, who never was really in play to be poached since 2013, only has six. Make no mistake, my clever friend, if Young was in play, like Pass still is, he would probably have 30 AQ offers and the other 25 teams would not offer only because it would not be worth the time to send the letter and get rejected without having a chance in the first place.. But look at the offers that Young DOES have; quite impressive. His six offers are of marginal value in your evaluation process; yet, I am more interested in his five star rating than his lack of AQ offers.
I would again retort, UK, No .20, U of LoL, 37.
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This is the part I actually don't care about....which class is ranked higher by services...just me and I always had this opinion...outside of the Top 10 classes if you're ranked from 11th to 50th it pretty much a wash...for the simple reason it is at that point razor thin and again I will sound like a broken record it become more of system fit and development.
Many get caught into the number system/stars...but if you have a 4* player but he doesn't fit the system you're running it not going to do you any good. It also comes down to player development...When I see schools like TCU & Baylor have major success the past 3 years with classes ranked in the 30's and 50's I become more convnced of this...Baylor from 2012 to 2015 31st to 43rd...TCU same time period 30th to 50th....again just my opinion.
As for Louisville, 37 by Rivals as of today...pretty much par the course for the past 6 years...as long of the on the field results come about really can't complain.
Many get caught into the number system/stars...but if you have a 4* player but he doesn't fit the system you're running it not going to do you any good. It also comes down to player development...When I see schools like TCU & Baylor have major success the past 3 years with classes ranked in the 30's and 50's I become more convnced of this...Baylor from 2012 to 2015 31st to 43rd...TCU same time period 30th to 50th....again just my opinion.
As for Louisville, 37 by Rivals as of today...pretty much par the course for the past 6 years...as long of the on the field results come about really can't complain.
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yeah. i keep looking at this ul class and only see about 3 guys i'd take for one of ours at the same spot. last year i think it was 5 or 6 not counting the woman beater cause i dont want women beaters on my team... but i digress. this ul class looks like the morgan newton/ryan mossakowski class for UK. a couple really highly rated guys and a few decent ones and then a whole bunch of crap.
i read an article last summer on "moneyball of college recruiting" and it was cool with how misses in one position can set your whole team back. joker failed to recruit ol and dline and he was gone quick. other spots he recruited well but they couldn't stay eligible. i see ul coming into the joker trap only wayyy less bad. ol is weak for ul and you have little help in this class. your dline class is as bad as any joker recruited. you will have a solid starting group but one injury is gonna really hurt you on either side of the ball... like in UKs past decade. bobby is gonna have to rely on jucos a lot going forward for both positions and it did work for kstate but there are teams that it doesn't. i would say good luck but we both know i dont mean it. lol
i read an article last summer on "moneyball of college recruiting" and it was cool with how misses in one position can set your whole team back. joker failed to recruit ol and dline and he was gone quick. other spots he recruited well but they couldn't stay eligible. i see ul coming into the joker trap only wayyy less bad. ol is weak for ul and you have little help in this class. your dline class is as bad as any joker recruited. you will have a solid starting group but one injury is gonna really hurt you on either side of the ball... like in UKs past decade. bobby is gonna have to rely on jucos a lot going forward for both positions and it did work for kstate but there are teams that it doesn't. i would say good luck but we both know i dont mean it. lol
Total BS.
Take away 5 guys off your list (Pass, Boykin, Blue, Little, and Green) and you loss...wait for it...71 of those AQ offers. And Green will never qualify and never even came to your campus so his 4 star commitment has always just been for window dressing anyway. And Boykin had 26 of those offers.
As stated previously, Young and Jackson were both early commits who committed over a year early. If both of those guys ride out recruiting they would have 60 offers between them.
I like the top end SEC level talent in or top 10 or 15 guys better than yours and I like our bottom 10 guys better than yours. You have about 10 guys that are reaches and about 6 of those are SERIOUS reachs. Hell, the 2 Olinemen you personally like because they "move well" have terrible offer sheets with hardly any AQ offers. And your two running backs have pitiful offer sheets as well. As do your 2 Dtackles.
I'll take our class and you take yours and we'll see what happens in the next several years
we agree on that. i, for the most part, feel that rankings have about 20 spot swing to them. if you recruit in the 30's you can probably beat anyone in the top 11 to 29 range with good coaching and can lose to any team in the top 31 to 51 range with poor coaching. neither of us are gonna beat bama in a title game with them playing their hardest with the talent we have. granted we could both win a one off game against anyone and could beat a lot of top 30ish teams on the regular going forward. i do like a couple of wr's and the qb. you got a highly regarded safety but we are good at the spot for 5 years so im not "wanting".
We will find out in the coming years how it works out...Louisville fans are not going to get really worked up over the analysis of recruiting ranking...simple reason we had over the past 5 years guys that were recruited as backup plans or flat out over look come here and have major success and is now doing well in the Sunday league with the latest one Sheldon Rankins being everyone in the SEC Backup plan in 2012 secure his 1st Round Draft status this week in Mobile, Alabama at the Senior Bowl...the same goes for fans of schools that have had more success than Louisville like Michigan State, TCU & Baylor...schools that from 2010 to 2015 recruited according to the services at were Louisville has been for the past 5 years.
The only thing that hurts Louisville in the OLine recruiting is if a player wants to play early....Louisville,basically returns 3 Freshman starters and one Sophomore starter from last year OLine...they were shaky last year until later in the year...it is up to the young guys and Coach K to continue the improvement.
to be fair recruiting rankings go away once they get on campus and compete with the older guys and you see what you got. it's why every team can claim to have kids that "should be ranked higher".... they show up in spring or fall and flat out play football and have a 5.4 rating and you're like "wtf?". that being said. THIS time of year is about recruiting rankings. hell, you are on a message board that is in business to rate recruits....
Thanks...but it all fun between fanbases this time of year and provides good water cooler argument...like I told you on our board...Good luck Wednesday...it going to be a wild ride for the Commonwealth on NSD...I actually take that day off work...this and the NFL Draft is what I follow after the actual Football season...lol
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Young was the best player in the state and one of the best in Kentucky. He does not list UL. If UL did not think they had a chance, I suspect a lot of out of state teams felt the same way. I am confident Young could have secured an offer from any school in the nation. We know Kash Daniel secured an offer from Michigan right before he enrolled at UK, that is not shown on Rivals. We also know players get early contingent offers from a lot of schools, but those are often just listed as offers on some of these sites. In short, counting offers is silly. Jus be happy with your class and move on.
Don't disagree with this. UL has definitely had a keen eye for talent thus time of year historically. Rankins was a plan B for many power schools but he was on their radar. As was a,guy like Mauldin or a guy like Woodyard and Cobb for us who had late SEC offers.
It's the guys that don't have any legit bigger schools sniffing around that are long shots to play on Sundays. UK has had plenty of those guys and you see where it has gotten us.
That is why we are so excited with what is being brought in now.
The one they whiff on for Kentucky badly was Dupree...that guy was fantastic. Another one in the coming years is Westry...he will IMO barring injury will be playing on Sunday.
Agree with this about Young and others having much longer lists and guys like Devante Robinson, who is now getting offers left and right from Bama, OSU, UGA, etc bit those won't be listed.
But I do think their is a place for looking at listed offers to Guage the overall success and worth of a player and class. You just don't do it in a vacuum to skew the numbers just to git your jaded argument.
And I for one enjoy the back and forth with rational and respectful UL fans(not that poking the bear with a stick isn't acceptable from time to time...I do it : )). It is information to get feedback and info on their class from guys that follow it closely.
If I recall, he had a handful of decent offers so he wasn't totally off the radar. The interesting thing about Dupree was that Stoops and Elliot both said they knew who he was and knew he was a good player when they got here because they had recruited him some at Florida St. Clearly that never turned into him getting an offer or even showing FL. ST. interest on his profile.
Guys like him are prime examples of the inexact science of projecting how an 18 year old will grow and what position he fits in too. Dupree was 220lb and was mostly considered a TE coming in. UK even started him their in camp before moving him to D. Rankin I think was partially the same. The big guys probably saw him as a bit of a tweener between a slightly undersized DT or step slow DE. Now he is 6'3 305 and is a stud that can play inside and out.
It is a rivalry. If you don't expect people to talk about a big in state rivalry then that's silly.
Ummm, hardly know what to say here. But my argument was, looking at anything other than "points based recruiting rankings", these two classes are much "closer" than what such rankings suggest.
First of all, by my count, the 5 guys you mention hold 63 (not 71) of the 105 AQ offers. And I do believe that Green (6 AQ offers, all SEC) is a qualification risk.
Young and Jackson are absolutely top notch prospects but how many more offers they "should have" received with a later commitment to UK is speculation on your part. Highly regarded JUCO Leavitt was "on the market" most of the recruiting cycle and holds 14 AQ offers. To say Young and Jackson would have garnered 60 AQ offers seems a bit of a stretch. I know the "offers list" in a kid's profile is not verifiable and thus not 100% accurate. Often they hold contingencies. But nonetheless, taken in aggregate, I think offers are a reflection on what football coaches think. Rivals rankings are full of kids where the offer list and the ranking just don't seem to line up. Regarding those differences, I will always take the collective opinion of a cadre of coaches over a handful of internet talent scouts. And, naturally, different schools have different recruiting objectives in each class, so in some cases a "lower rated class" may be comprised of exactly what a team needed that year.
"SEC level talent" is a frequently used phrase on this board that continues to confuse me. AL, AU, LSU, GA, FL are all SEC teams. As are Vandy, UK, MO, SC and AR. But the talent level between those two groups is usually quite different. Regardless, UK has 6 commits holding 16 other SEC offers. Excluding UK, UofL has 10 commits that hold 30 SEC offers. Each program has 4 prospects holding offers from "top SEC" schools. So I'm not sure which program has recruited the most "SEC talent". Seems pretty close to me.
FWIW, I don't recall ever saying I "liked" the Card's OL recruits. I do recall posting that one of UofL's "late visitors" (Richards ???) seemed to have good footwork which I believe is the cornerstone of a good OL. He does not yet hold an offer.
And lastly, yes, each school is "stuck" with their class and we will indeed just have to see what happens in the future. But that is pretty much always the case.
Peace
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But, have you noticed how many Cards are just as obsessed with this thread? Isn't that amazing?
ul will be unable to sustain a high level of wins per year staying in the mid 30's recruiting without high level transfers. You have to admit, where would ul be without their transfers the past 2 years? Ul would be playing players with less talent or much younger players. Doesn't ul lose a huge amount of talent on D next year? Also, will Trevon Young make it back?
Maybe in the SEC that would be the case...but in other P5 leagues not really like that...prime example from 2012 to 2015 are Michigan State-(MSU did hit the mid 20s), Baylor, TCU & Wisconsin...those programs in the B1G & Big XII have recruiting rankings between 30 to the mid 50s in that timeframe...in Iowa case it was from mid 40s to low 50s during the 2012 to 2015 range...the key is hitting on hidden gems.
Defensive Starters leaving after 2015 are likely JHC, Kelsey, Fields, Brown...Wiggins, Washington, Chucky Williams, Hearns, Bailey/Richardson/Shortridge/Robinson-(Defensive Linemen that played in the Music City Bowl) and Stacy Thomas should be returning after 2016.
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But they go back to their board with all your respectful and balanced interactions and dog you, us, our players, coaches and program out to the fullest. Your just feeding them fodder to use to go back and spread the hate.
I don't know why losserville fans are all giddy when the fact is they are 16-10 and 1-1 in bowls with NeckbracePetrino. There so happy cause they beat the 9th best team in the SEC in a bowl they ridicule us for playing in.
They will not recruit at the level that they need to be anything more then a middle of the pack ACC team if that. In a good year 3rd in their division.
Stoops is 10-14 playing in the toughest conference in the country during the Petrino era with freshman and sophomores in his first head coaching gig. Thats just five games better then us and two of those were against us.
Let them brag all they want but the fact is their on the down slide and when those 7-5 seasons turn to 5-7 Petrino will be on his bike heading out of town.
Why Louisville fans can accept for the time being going 9-4 in year one of the ACC and 8-5 in year two is easy:
1. In 2014 they lost 3 first round picks in the NFL including a QB that lead his NFL team to the NFC North title and played in the Pro Bowl tonight. Still finished Ranked in the Top 25 in every poll.
2. In 2015...despite losing 10 players to the NFL Draft and starting 6 Freshmen on Offense and playing as many as 8 Freshman during periods in the 2015 season still won 8 games including going 8-2 in the Final 10 games of the 2015 season...will enter 2016 very likely in everyone Preseason Top 25.
Good grief. Nobody cares Go on back to your board and do your job as zipps little girl.
Why are people even tolerating this posters losserville crap on a UK board. You can not go to their board and even talk reasonable without being ridiculed and or banned.
He's a UofLsucksville hack who spreads nothing but hate about our program on their board while kissing up to all the hate mongers who spew nothing but detest for our players, coaches, program and especially our fans.
Do us all a favor and please leave. Nobody cares.