Very interesting article on the new SEC-Big 12 bowl game.

[patdog]

They're sending a very clear message to the bowls that they're not going to be able to continue to skim as much of the money these games generate. And they're also marginalizing the ACC as a major football conference.Who's their best available team after the playoffs going to play? The Big East champ? May as well play the CUSA champ for all that will do for them. I thought the ACC had really positioned itself well by adding Syracuse and Pitt, but it's coming out now that their new TV deal is severely backloaded and they're in a lot more danger of losing teams than I thought.

Link

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

i think you are seeing the seeds being planted for 4 16-20 team super conferences that either secede from the NCAA or the non included teams are demoted to FCS with the rose bowl and new sec-big 12 bowl game acting as effective semi-finals and conf CGs acting as effective quarter finals. i think most of the ACC would find a home in the SEC, big 10, and big 12. you could even see some schools like duke decide to go the way of georgetown and just pretty much forget about football.


i'm just happy that we are securely in one of the safe conferences and not sitting there wondering if we'll be left out in the cold when all the **** goes down.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

FSU, Miami, Clemson - Big 12 probably<div>Va Tech, NCSU - SEC</div><div>Maryland, Virginia - Big 10</div><div>Georgia Tech - Big 10 or Big 12</div><div>North Carolina, Duke - Big 10 possibly, or Big 12, or maybe Big East, or a new basketball-oriented conference</div><div>Pittsburgh, Syracuse - will just remain in the Big East rather than pay exit fees to join a severely depleted Big East</div><div>Boston College - probably end up back in the Big East. Longshot for Big 10</div><div>Wake Forest - Big East possibly, or CUSA</div>

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

UNC will NOT end up in some kinda basketball only conference. if the ACC is falling apart around them, they will end up in the SEC, big 10, or big 12. they might tie themselves to duke for a bit while things are shaking out, but if it came down to staying with duke and decimating their football program or splitting from duke and setting themselves up better financially, they will absolutely cut tie with duke.<div>
</div><div>also, i could see there ending up being 18 or even 20 team conferences. if that happens, i think there would be enough spots for all the ACC programs, duke and wake forest being the 2 most likely to get left out. </div><div>
</div><div>tbh, history be damned, let's consolidate into 4 18-20 teams conferences (big 10, pac 12, sec, and big 12), split each into 2 divisions, demote all other programs into FCS, then you have the most natural playoff possible. divisional champs -> conf champs -> pac 12/big 10 semi + sec/big 12 semi -> national title game. boom, 17'ing awesome.</div>

 

[patdog]

I think the conference will survive, but could get cherrypicked and then wind up merging what's left with some of the football schools from the Big East. One thing I feel pretty sure of is that the SEC's target in North Carolina isn't NC State. It's UNC. I know they want to stay with Duke, but they really don't want to be just a basketball school. They've put a lot of money into their football facilities and with the money difference the SEC could bring (even over the Big 10) I think they may be more willing to split with Duke than most people do.

 

[m t flask]

One thingI can't seem to understand, in reading differentarticles about this..... The writers always refer to this being the SEC answer to the Rose Bowl (B10/PAC12).. But wouldn't the Rose Bowl become part of the 4 team playoff deal in 2014? So in effect, the B10/P12 would NOT have anything like this. Am i missing something?

 

[esplanade91]

I don't think the ACC is in any trouble. Looking past the Orange Bowl this year, the ACC has put 2 or 3 nationally reputable teams out there every year (VT, GT, and Miami/Clemson/FSU/this year Virginia have had little spurts). That's as many as the Pac-12, B1G, and Big XII produce every year. The ACC boasts more NC's in football than a couple conferences from this past decade. I think the problem with the ACC from our eyes is recognition because we operate in the same area and they're an afterthought, but from an outside perspective they're afloat. I don't think FSU, Clemson, or Miami leave for Texas, and I don't think Duke and UNC leave a respectable football conference, because as bad as they can be sometimes their fans and alums care about football. The only way the ACC collapses is if the SEC adds 4 or more teams from them and they won't. Even if VT and NCSU jump ship they ACC will just add UConn and Rutgers.

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

if you read between the lines, what they are heading towards is establishing a pair of defacto national semi-finals with the rose bowl and the new big 12/sec game, then have a "+1" set up, which most years would eb the winners of those 2 games. that's why i think you'll see ultimately the 4 conferences involved expanded to 16-20 teams apiece and pretty much relegate the rest of the FBS into FCS. some will hang around and try to make it work, but it'll develop a huge gap between the haves and the have nots. even more than currently exists. though most of the current players, including boise st, would likely find a home in the pac 16 or whatever, so most of the teams left out would be the memphis and tulanes and central floridas of the world.

i think if the ACC is raided, the schools left out (can't imagine it'd be many...maybe duke and wake) would pair up with whatever big east schools are left (louisville andcincy in particular might end up getting in elsewhere). i could also see the big east splintering along the football and non-football lines, and the non-football schools joining with the A-10 to make a pretty awesome basketball conference. i think thenon-football big east schools are already getting pissed about how football is jerking the conference around and letting in questionable members in a grab to remain football relevant).

one thing for sure is that expansion/realignment is not near over.

 

[patdog]

The deal looked OK when it was announced, but it's severely backloaded. And the ACC hasn't produced anywhere near the quality in football that the even the Big 12 - PAC-12 - Big 10 have in the last decade. I don't think there's any doubt the ACC will survive, but they're in real danger ofhaving theirbest teamscherry-picked and having to fill in with Big East teams. I really doubt that NC State is the SEC's 2nd target from the ACC. UNC is the other target. They bring a lot more to the table than NCSU does.

 

[engie]

is not reputation, perception, or competitiveness, it's cold hard $$.

They've been in real trouble for a long time now. The writing was on the wall(for me) when they "upped" the buyout to $20 mil. Their new 14-team tv package is worth an average of $17mil/yr, about what the 12-team SEC makes. We will make AT LEAST $8-10 mil/yr more than that starting next year, and the gap will widen as the SEC network comes to fruition.

Financially, they are only falling further behind. Not getting closer.

I've been calling it for months... we WILL take 2 teams from the ACC and no doubt UNC is the crown jewel we'll be going after. Whether or not we can get them probably depends on if the B1G goes after them, then if they'll take Duke as a package deal. UNC has always felt they were "better" than the SEC as a school, and would be a better match in the B1G in that regard. That said, they are still #1a AND 1b on my WANT list.

My thoughts on this from January: http://sixpackspeak.yuku....Expansion-related?page=1
Alot of people that called me crazy and a "blind SEC homer" are changing their tunes now...

 

[AssEndDawg]

18-20 Team Conferences? Why? There is zero financial incentive for that. There is a reason for the 16 team super-conference. It allows you to basically lock down a region for TV rights and make a butt load of money. But I can't see any reason why the conferences would go beyond that to take mid-level schools. You discussion of the new playoffs would require the dissolution of the NCAA. It's possible, but that's not going to be a fast process. You will see 16 team conferences soon but I don't see it moving past that.

 

[shotgunDawg]

Where does Notre Dame fall in all this? How can they possibly stay independent? They are all ready irrelevant, but are they risking becoming a complete after thought if they don't enter a conference?

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

i'm bringing it up as a possibility. for several years there's be hypotheticals floated about what if someone too the top 80 programs and sectioned them off into 10 team divisions and went from there. it could be happening. and if the top 70-80 programs basically threatened to leave the NCAA, the NCAA would bow down to whatever they asked for. i don't think the SEC, big 10, or big 12 would have trouble landing 4-8 more teams per conference without hurting the on field product (not tradition, actual play on the field). the pac 12 would have trouble finding more than a couple of quality teams though.