VHSL Reference 4A top ten
- Thread starter hamspear
- Start date
I really question #8 and #10.
Coach Christmas is a hell-of-a coach, but they lost a ton to graduation.
KF has a new coach. The coach that left was an extrodinary coach, and had a couple of outstanding running backs in recent years that carried the load. So, it remains to be seen what the future holds.
But, without doing real homework, I'm not sure who I would move up. Perhaps Spotsylvania and Monacan?
Coach Christmas is a hell-of-a coach, but they lost a ton to graduation.
KF has a new coach. The coach that left was an extrodinary coach, and had a couple of outstanding running backs in recent years that carried the load. So, it remains to be seen what the future holds.
But, without doing real homework, I'm not sure who I would move up. Perhaps Spotsylvania and Monacan?
Vhsl reference is pure stats. Nothing embellished. No idea who the Coach is. Losses to graduation is not a factor.
Performance over time is everything. I use these type of systems all the time for Call Centers. Predicting the future based on historical info. Never guaranteed 100% accurate but close enough to make you more money. Vegas is built on these systems and they don't seem poor.
Spotsy is 3A.
Isn't Spotsylvania 3A?
I completely agree about JF. I'm not sure they'll be amongst the top ten teams in 4A West, let alone in all of 4A.
Interesting that last year, there was much more balance in the top ten (actual top ten, not necessarily just the VHSL Reference poll) between West and East. This season, I think things might swing back in favor of the East. I believe the top team from each of the East and West will likely be evenly matched, as we'll see in December. After that however, in my opinion the East will probably have three to five teams that are all better than the second-best team from the West. Of course, with practically no inter-region play, there's going to be very little on-field proof, either way. As usual. Should lead to some lively debates on here, as always.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first year VHSL-Reference has done full preseason ratings for all the teams in the state?
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Darn it. I do that every time. I was thinking of Cancellor and my pea brain says Spotsy every time. I'll blame it on the heat!
Yeah, pretty hot here, too. Heading out to do yard work in the relative cool of the evening.
Hey DP - I emailed you some stuff last week. Hopefully it didn't end up in spam folder limbo.
Certainly can't make Chancellor a pre-season top ten. Their schedule is too tough and the record says no. But this is my dark horse this year. They may be there in December.
No sir, I received it. I appologize for not responding back. I tried twice to open them directly by the link. It just sat there saying, "loading", forever. I just haven't had time to sit down and work through getting them open. Again, I appologize. It was rude of me not to let you know and say thanks. I keep saying, ok, I'll let Spartan know after I sit down and get them to open. (Can I blame this on the heat, too?)
Yeah, we need to get outside and pick the garden. But man..., I think I'll find some excuse. It's registering 98 on my thermometer. That's probably skewed by where it sits, but it's every bit of 92-94.
I agree. There's no displacing Salem as #1 to start the season but, like I said, vhsl ref is stats only. On that basis, it's LT. And I believe those stats are based over a 10 year period (minimum). Perhaps even to 1999. The more data you have, the more accurate the result.
Regardless, it's really pretty cool how consistently accurate historical data can be used to predict future events. VHSL-Reference is one of my favorite sites when I want team info. Always my first choice.
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I agree with this ranking though Monacan should be in there somewhere and I definitely think Dinwiddie is a top 3 team.
Doesn't Monacan have their super good QB back? Has a funny last name? I know they lost at least their best receiver and RB, but Coach Henderson will have replacements ready.
Yes sir! Syour Fludd. He was banged up this past year but if he's healthy, they'll be a force to reckon with. Monacan, like Hanover and Dinwiddie, play in a very good district. Monacan will get Cosby, Bird and Manchester during the regular season. A 7-3/ 6-4 Monacan team will be a dangerous team come playoff time.
I have always said he is a good coach, but this will be test since they lost so many players.
My Top Ten
1. Salem
2. LT
3. Dinwiddie
4. Hanover
5. Chancellor
6. Amherst
7. Woodgrove
8. Courtland
9. Sherando
10. Lafayette
I don't know if I put Amherst in there or have Chancellor quite that high but for end of the year rankings, that sounds pretty damn close. Well done and thanks. I'm saving this one.
As far as preseason lists go, this isn't too bad. I'd put Salem at #1 because I think they'll be even better than they were last year, but it'll be interesting to look back at this list come December to see which teams exceeded, or didn't meet, their lofty preseason expectations.
Regardless of the VHSL stat analysis, I agree that Salem must be listed #1. They are beatable. They do not have overwhelming talent. The schedule is not hard. But Mag's has them exactly where they need to be. Well Coached. No fear. They believe. They will not choke at crunch time. They will do their job. It's like the New England Patriots. Take a no name and fill in the blank. They are the undeniable #1 seed till dethroned and I don't see that happening this year. championship game is my bet. Barring a surprise, the other West teams that competed in 2015 are not as strong as last year, while Salem could be considered even better.
There are so many East teams I would love to see Salem play against. But it can only come down to one and I fully expect Salem to rep the West at W&M in December.
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Salem is pretty loaded talent wise for the next couple of years.
I'm sure Salem has talent and the program cannot be questioned. It's hard to say anything negative and be creditable when someone that can just wave a ring in your face.
However, until they play a regular season schedule like a Chancellor, they will always be questioned.
However, until they play a regular season schedule like a Chancellor, they will always be questioned.
Is Chancellor questioned? Is it better to lose three games against a harder schedule?
I agree Salem has nothing to prove. Yes, they play a shady schedule, but thats the cards they are dealt. They ran the table just as Dinwiddie and LT did previosly.
Just win baby! Starting next year both Dinwiddie and Salem will do the cross over (East vs. West). Sherando and Louisa are doing it already. Great for high school football and 4a.
Just win baby! Starting next year both Dinwiddie and Salem will do the cross over (East vs. West). Sherando and Louisa are doing it already. Great for high school football and 4a.
Hello all,
I wanted to post about the preseason rankings. I do not know how they whom ever they are come up with the material to make these predictions, but with all due respect to my Courtland Cougars, and at the same time swallowing my pride, they are no where near the lofty status that has been bestowed to them. This team lost the entire house plus more, and this will be coach Hall's biggest rebuilding job since he has been at the school. SO MAKE NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, THE COUGARS ARE IN FULL RELOADING/REBUILDING MODE FOR 2016. Now, they due have a few nice players returning, some who were starters that were injured last year and did not play a snap. The have some super kids moving up from the JV team, and have a couple transfers, but I see them more than likely starting 0-2 or maybe 1-2 depending on the Riverbend game. I think Chancellor should be in the top 10 preseason rankings, maybe taking the Cougars spot, that team is just loaded and primed for a great run this year. They are the Cougars from last year, 4 supper studs all D-1 and a bunch of nice pieces surrounding them. The Cougars are a year away from being top 5 material as next years team will be the one to watch out for. I see a 5-5 season as a good year maybe even eking out 6-4 or 7-3 if they stay healthy. They just have to many youngsters, and lost 23 or so Seniors to graduation, they will not be a pushover, and will pull an upset, they are a program, with a great coach and staff assistants. They will only get stronger as the season goes along, if they were to get a playoff shot, maybe win one, but that would be all. However, I would not want to see them.
I wanted to post about the preseason rankings. I do not know how they whom ever they are come up with the material to make these predictions, but with all due respect to my Courtland Cougars, and at the same time swallowing my pride, they are no where near the lofty status that has been bestowed to them. This team lost the entire house plus more, and this will be coach Hall's biggest rebuilding job since he has been at the school. SO MAKE NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, THE COUGARS ARE IN FULL RELOADING/REBUILDING MODE FOR 2016. Now, they due have a few nice players returning, some who were starters that were injured last year and did not play a snap. The have some super kids moving up from the JV team, and have a couple transfers, but I see them more than likely starting 0-2 or maybe 1-2 depending on the Riverbend game. I think Chancellor should be in the top 10 preseason rankings, maybe taking the Cougars spot, that team is just loaded and primed for a great run this year. They are the Cougars from last year, 4 supper studs all D-1 and a bunch of nice pieces surrounding them. The Cougars are a year away from being top 5 material as next years team will be the one to watch out for. I see a 5-5 season as a good year maybe even eking out 6-4 or 7-3 if they stay healthy. They just have to many youngsters, and lost 23 or so Seniors to graduation, they will not be a pushover, and will pull an upset, they are a program, with a great coach and staff assistants. They will only get stronger as the season goes along, if they were to get a playoff shot, maybe win one, but that would be all. However, I would not want to see them.
Due respect but the Cougars do not rebuild. They reload. They will lose games this year. Same as last. They don't play a GW or Salem schedule. But I don't expect more than two playoff wins this year either. Football is one thing. Fan is another. Real is the bottom line.
A lot of unnecessary harping on schedules, particularly in Salem's case. High schools are somewhat constrained both economically and geographically with regards to scheduling and the bottom line is to play a schedule that will (1) get you to the playoffs and (2)get you ready for the playoffs. Do those two things and take care of business in the playoffs on a perennial basis and nobody should be taking a lot of shots at your schedule. Do those two things and bow out early in the playoffs on a regular basis and then the questions are fair game, in my opinion. Play a perennially tough regular season schedule and fail to get it done in the playoffs you just open yourself up to a different kind of question, in my opinion. Playoff and championship performances are the real bottom line.
Reading a lot of regional bias on this board recently. Northern Virginia and Tidewater play great football. Because of their population they have more kids and more schools. But that does not always mean that the best team comes from those regions. Last time I checked the reigning 3a and 4a champs come from SW Virginia. Salem will play some good teams this year. Byrd, Northside, Amherst, Patrick Henry, Pulaski and Blacksburg all very capable.
Southbottom, where have you seen any regional bias since the end of last season? (Maybe Shanti referring to Chancellor), but each fan has the right to community pride. Haven't heard anyone from Richmond or the Tidewater area mention anything remotely negative about the west.
Salem went undefeated last year and is the defending state champion. They are expected to do very well this season and could very well carry the trophy once again.
Do individuals question the Spartans schedule? Sure do, but everyone in the state plays a district schedule with weak teams mixed in.
Sometimes, I believe Salem fans think they are unfairly villified for their teams success. No need to act like the victim or try to dream up unsubstantiated bias. The Spartans are the current "King of the Mountain" and everyone will be lining up to get to the top. Thats the life of a champion.
Since realignment we've had three different state champions. Whose next?
Salem went undefeated last year and is the defending state champion. They are expected to do very well this season and could very well carry the trophy once again.
Do individuals question the Spartans schedule? Sure do, but everyone in the state plays a district schedule with weak teams mixed in.
Sometimes, I believe Salem fans think they are unfairly villified for their teams success. No need to act like the victim or try to dream up unsubstantiated bias. The Spartans are the current "King of the Mountain" and everyone will be lining up to get to the top. Thats the life of a champion.
Since realignment we've had three different state champions. Whose next?
The schedule is the schedule you are dealt! even if it was true that Salem played a bunch of cupcakes, they still won the trophy! so does it really matter? they won regardless. Teams in the past who were 9-1 or better lost to a team with a lesser record. Do not always always go by the record to decide which team will win. Take Courtland, and Chancellor, they player murders row each year, if they make it in at 6-4 or 7-3 I would pick them over a lot of others with better records simply because of whom they played. That's why in the past you saw Courtland start 0-4 and end up wining the region championship, just because they were toughened up by playing the D-5 and D-6 schools. They also scrimmage the bigger schools, so their first 4 games each year including the scrimmages are all against the bigger schools. Salem is just an awesome program, with great coaches and an incredible winning tradition. Put all that together and you get championships! Now for Courtland to do what they do each year is remarkable, being sandwiched between Ponax, River bend, and Chancellor, all much larger schools. The Cougars are the smallest, and are very close to dropping down to D-3, but are about 25 students above the cut off, so we will see if they request to drop. I do not believe coach Hall will want that, he likes the tougher classification.
I've decided no response is the best. I mean, are you actually throwing out Blacksburg as an opponent?
i do see regional bias. The best teams are in the NOVA and Tidewater areas. That's just all there is to it. My comment on Chancellor was that they were my dark horse team and they would be quite good. I don't see that as biased in that I have also discounted them for the last three years.
Amherst should give Salem some work. I hope so but it's tough to see that with what Salem returns. Pulaski continues to improve but they're just not that type of program anymore. Fleming is just no good. Blacksburg is a rug. They lay there. I can't imagine how anyone even mentioned them as competitive. It's why an undefeated team was not on top of last year's seedings. Poor SOS. That's not me. Those are the numbers according to the VHSL.
And if that Championship game was played again tomorrow, I'd still pick LT.
But who's got the ring?
Was not dogging you Shanti. I was simply noting you had referenced Chancellors tough schedule which is truly tough. I posted several weeks ago that Chancellor was going to be a top team in the East so we do agree.
Not sure why the Salem faithful feel they don't get any respect on this board. Very pro Salem since December. The Spartans earned the title and the fans deserve the right to talk s $*t.
There are good teams in the East and West. Much more parody the past two years. The boys on the field will decide it in December. For now, we can all crow about our teams without the fear of eating any.
Not sure why the Salem faithful feel they don't get any respect on this board. Very pro Salem since December. The Spartans earned the title and the fans deserve the right to talk s $*t.
There are good teams in the East and West. Much more parody the past two years. The boys on the field will decide it in December. For now, we can all crow about our teams without the fear of eating any.
Shaunticlair I want to see some stats. How do you figure NoVA and Tidewater are the "best"? The 804 have won one just about every year (I don't keep up with football like I do basketball). Bird won what 3 or 4 straight and Highland Springs won one.. Dinwiddie, Dale beat Oscar Smith and won one in 2009.. Herm had some strong teams (never got a ring) but I'd put all of these teams against any team you can name from NoVA or 75.
It comes from him mentioning it every single opportunity he gets. If this was the first, second, third, fourth or fifth time I had saw him say that I would give him a pass.