Don't ask....I don't know why I was listening to his show....he's the only person in the country to have UMiss ranked ahead of us. He ranked them first in whatever poll he votes in....Poulan Weedeater, I think. That guy is completely incapable of objectivity, and he sounds like a fool trying to justify himself. What a tool...
Was listening to Timmy Brando this morning....
- Thread starter Fogdog
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That's Brando's personal poll he releases every Monday morning on his show...
and it changes drastically every week. He had FSU 8th 2 weeks ago, Auburn 1st last week, etc, etc....he based it on UM's win at A&M being bigger than our win at LSU.
and it changes drastically every week. He had FSU 8th 2 weeks ago, Auburn 1st last week, etc, etc....he based it on UM's win at A&M being bigger than our win at LSU.
Agree to a point. But there was no mention of us at all. That is absurd to think that a team that has proven itself over and over just isn't going to keep doing it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk1YW27Z1fw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk1YW27Z1fw
I have no problem with someone ranking OM ahead of State. If you believe they're the best team in the country, what else were they supposed to do? They can't be 7-0 thru 6 games. And definitely when you're talking about projecting the playoff they have the edge with scheduling.
None of that applies to Brando though. He's just an OM homer. He's a moron anyway.
None of that applies to Brando though. He's just an OM homer. He's a moron anyway.
The problem is with the way these guys look at the season. They look at the remaining schedule by projecting out every game as a win or a loss. So they see MSU@Bama and MSU@OM as losses. When in reality they should be looked at the way FPI does, as a 60% chance of a loss. The truth is if they're both 60%, that's only a 36% chance that we lose BOTH games. And they're not both 60% in reality. FPI has us underrated bc of some things that go into their formula, like margin of victory.
It gets messy when comparing us to OM, and talking about who's more likely to pick up TWO losses and miss the playoff, but looking at Bama is easy and really highlights the flaw in their approach.. They have to win out, period. Using FPI, their odds of beating A&M are 63%, UT 73%, LSU 58%, MSU 59%, WCU 100%, and Aub 51%.
Now Jerry Palm and Tim Brando types look at that and see 6 wins. But the truth is to get the odds of Bama going 6-0 you just multiply the numbers together. Comes out to an 8% chance that they actually win all 6. Very unlikely. Having a 1-loss team with Bama's remaining schedule in your playoff projection is laughable. We are much more likely to be there.
It gets messy when comparing us to OM, and talking about who's more likely to pick up TWO losses and miss the playoff, but looking at Bama is easy and really highlights the flaw in their approach.. They have to win out, period. Using FPI, their odds of beating A&M are 63%, UT 73%, LSU 58%, MSU 59%, WCU 100%, and Aub 51%.
Now Jerry Palm and Tim Brando types look at that and see 6 wins. But the truth is to get the odds of Bama going 6-0 you just multiply the numbers together. Comes out to an 8% chance that they actually win all 6. Very unlikely. Having a 1-loss team with Bama's remaining schedule in your playoff projection is laughable. We are much more likely to be there.
If you make the schedule argument, State wins. @UK, ^UPigg, later @Bama, later @TSUN
Bama plays @LSU, then State, and later AU. They have TAMU this week.
TSUN still has @LSU, then ^AU (they lose at least one of those). Then they have @UPigg (will lose - trap game - UPigg looking for first SEC win), then ^MSU (toss-up).
Bama plays @LSU, then State, and later AU. They have TAMU this week.
TSUN still has @LSU, then ^AU (they lose at least one of those). Then they have @UPigg (will lose - trap game - UPigg looking for first SEC win), then ^MSU (toss-up).
Agreed. I do not see anyone with a better route than another
TSUN has sneaky tough road games and Auburn. I think LSU really has a chance to figure things out and salvage their season. Not saying they will beat TSUN at all, I just think that saying they are awful because they have lost to MSU and AU are a bit exaggerated.
I think Auburn is a VERY good team. Biggest thing I saw Saturday was plays where we have been breaking for 6-10+ yards all year get tackled for 2. We really won that game handily without any big plays. We had no 60 yard TD play or anything. We had to earn everything we got. Auburn is a good team. No doubt.
At Ark is a very sneaky game. VERY glad we have them at home.
TSUN has sneaky tough road games and Auburn. I think LSU really has a chance to figure things out and salvage their season. Not saying they will beat TSUN at all, I just think that saying they are awful because they have lost to MSU and AU are a bit exaggerated.
I think Auburn is a VERY good team. Biggest thing I saw Saturday was plays where we have been breaking for 6-10+ yards all year get tackled for 2. We really won that game handily without any big plays. We had no 60 yard TD play or anything. We had to earn everything we got. Auburn is a good team. No doubt.
At Ark is a very sneaky game. VERY glad we have them at home.
Good post. Most people see a probability of greater than 50% and assume that will occur, discounting the fact that 40% is still a substantial likelihood if not more likely than not. Those same people are often very willing to place bets at casinos on games with a less than 50% chance to win.
One caveat. Using the FPI is merely a snap shot as of today. They update the likelihoods after each week, which means that the individual likelihoods are not actually independent.
One caveat. Using the FPI is merely a snap shot as of today. They update the likelihoods after each week, which means that the individual likelihoods are not actually independent.
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Ole Miss clearly has the more favorable schedule. State has a much better offense. Ole Miss gets the edge on defense.
Both are great teams.
Brando picked UCLA to win the national title this year.
That should tell you what you need to know about him.
I listen to his show because its the only thing on sirius that's straight college talk at 9 am and cowherd is even worse.
That should tell you what you need to know about him.
I listen to his show because its the only thing on sirius that's straight college talk at 9 am and cowherd is even worse.
Tim Brando's daughter went to Ole Miss. I thought everyone knew that? In fact, she just graduated a year or two ago.
I don't think OM "clearly" has the more favorable schedule going forward.
Possibly, but I do think it's debatable. Don't disagree with your other comments.
Possibly, but I do think it's debatable. Don't disagree with your other comments.
Calling @ARK a trap game is wishful thinking. TSUN isn't losing to an inferior team with a one dimensional offense just because its an away game and we hate them. TSUN shouldn't lose to anyone but Auburn or us.
i think Dawg is spot on about Brando (clearly loves OM). He's also correct that the schedule clearly favors OM. However, I don't think Palm (in the link) is saying Ole Miss is necessarily better than us, just that they are more likely to win the SEC than any other team at this point. We are going to be underdogs in two remaining games and OM will be favored in all of theirs. This, of course, doesn't mean that all of the games will fall like the odds say they will, in fact they will almost certainly not go exactly as they are supposed to go, but those upsets could happen to any SEC teams. Just simply odds favor OM at this point in time. We are the #1 team in the country! I get the feeling of an inferiority complex when we dismiss one of the few people not loving on us at this moment when everyone else in the country is talking about us, Dak and how dominant a team we have. Let's enjoy the moment -- the rest will take care of itself.