Way Too Early Playoff Outlook - 4A

[GrizzlyDevil]

I know this is way too early and I know RPI isn't out yet...but I enjoy diving in early on to see how things change over the course of a season. Especially since east/west won't be decided until playoff time. What I've done is taken the Consensus Rankings and used that to take the top 48 schools. I then divided East/West, then seeded teams by Consensus Rank.

Here is what we have in 4A:

West	East
1 - Brevard	1 - Reidsville
BYE	BYE
16 - Ashe Co	16 - Carver
17 - North Surry	17 - SW Onslow
9 - Stuart Cramer	9 - North Pitt
24 - Lincoln Ch	24 - West Stanly
8 - Pisgah	8 - SW Randolph
BYE	BYE
4 - Burns	4 - Cent. Davidson
BYE	BYE
13 - Bunker Hill	13 - TW Andrews
20 - RS Central	20 - Red Springs
12 - West Stokes	12 - Ledford
21 - South Rowan	21 - Anson
5 - Hibriten	5 - Eastern Wayne
BYE	BYE
2 - Maiden	2 - East Duplin
BYE	BYE
15 - Wilkes Central	15 - Washington
18 - Fred T Foard	18 - Clinton
10 - West Iredell	10 - Lexington
23 - East Burke	23 - Roanoke Rapids
7 - Newton-Conover	7 - Randleman
BYE	BYE
3 - Bandys	3 - West Craven
BYE	BYE
14 - Mount Pleasant	14 - North Johnston
19 - Lake Norman Ch	19 - Cummings
11 - Tuscola	11 - Nash Central
22 - East Gaston	22 - Bunn
6 - Salisbury	6 - SW Edgecombe
BYE	BYE

 

[TD-Friday-Night-Lights]

The RPI is on https://www.nchsaa.org/sports/football/ Look for MaxPrep on the left above the scores.

Use the menu to navigate to the official RPI standings for a classification of your choosing in the current season. This formula will help in determining postseason fields.

Football RPI standings​

Last updated: September 5, 2025 (12:30 pm)

Just A few on the long list and I am sure it will change a lot in the weeks to come.

Class 4A
	Team	Record	WP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Brevard	1-0-0	1.00000	1.00000	1.00000	1.00000
2	Bandys	1-0-0	1.00000	1.00000	1.00000	1.00000
3	Stuart W. Cramer	2-0-0	1.00000	1.00000	0.50000	0.90000
4	Central Davidson	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	1.00000	0.80000
5	Hibriten	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	1.00000	0.80000
6	SouthWest Edgecombe	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.75000	0.75000
7	Newton-Conover	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.75000	0.75000
8	East Duplin	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.75000	0.75000
9	T.W. Andrews	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.75000	0.75000
10	Bunn	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.75000	0.75000
11	Lexington Senior	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.75000	0.75000
12	Eastern Wayne	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.75000	0.75000
13	Jordan-Matthews	2-0-0	1.00000	0.50000	0.50000	0.70000
14	Pisgah	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.50000	0.70000
15	North Surry	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.50000	0.70000
16	North Lenoir	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.25000	0.65000
17	Clinton	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.25000	0.65000
18	Randleman	1-1-0	0.50000	1.00000	0.25000	0.65000
19	West Iredell	2-0-0	1.00000	0.00000	1.00000	0.60000
20	Ashe County	0-1-0	0.00000	1.00000	1.00000	0.60000

Go to https://www.nchsaa.org/sports/football/ to see them all.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Running this projection through Massey's simulation:

Eastern Finals: Reidsville over East Duplin by 6
Western Finals: Brevard over Maiden by 7
Championship: Brevard over Reidsville by 1

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

@Maiden Creek you'll get a kick outta this:

Maiden's path in this projection goes 1st-BYE > 2nd-Fred T Foard > 3rd-Newton > 4th-Bandys...all conference members

 

[beamer24]

@Maiden Creek you'll get a kick outta this:

Maiden's path in this projection goes 1st-BYE > 2nd-Fred T Foard > 3rd-Newton > 4th-Bandys...all conference members

As good as yalls conference is yall will have a mess of teams in the playoffs.

 

[Maiden Creek]

@Maiden Creek you'll get a kick outta this:

Maiden's path in this projection goes 1st-BYE > 2nd-Fred T Foard > 3rd-Newton > 4th-Bandys...all conference members

That’s brutal!

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

As good as yalls conference is yall will have a mess of teams in the playoffs.

Everyone will make it

 

[beamer24]

Everyone will make it

All but I think 9 teams in 4A. My point was yall should have several in the latter rounds which will make rematches very possible.

 

[K84]

How many teams make the playoffs from each classification?

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

How many teams make the playoffs from each classification?

1A through 7A will have 48 teams make it

 

[notanyonesfan1]

Didn't it change this year to where there's only one #1 seed from each conference and the rest is based on RPI no matter classification? As where it was split conferences got multiple #1 seeds (ex top 4A finisher, top 3A finisher and so on). Just curious

 

[TD-Friday-Night-Lights]

Didn't it change this year to where there's only one #1 seed from each conference and the rest is based on RPI no matter classification? As where it was split conferences got multiple #1 seeds (ex top 4A finisher, top 3A finisher and so on). Just curious

You may find it on pages 77. 78, or 79 in the https://www.nchsaa.org/handbook/

 

[notanyonesfan1]

Page 80 it says "Schools are seeded based solely on MaxPreps final RPI". So theoretically a conference champ could be seeded lower than a second place team? Am I reading that correctly?

 

[K84]

I heard you can win your conference and still not make the playoffs, if your RPI isn’t in the top 42. That sounds crazy.

 

[ncfootball_17]

Top 48 ranked schools based on RPI make the playoffs and are seeded based solely on RPI. Conference finish has nothing to do with seeding anymore.

The change is to prevent teams that are in split conferences being seeded so high that shouldn't be because they "won" their classification. Also gives teams that play in a really tough conference and finish 2nd to a potential state championship team to still have the ability to have a home playoff game and seeded correctly based on actual ranking.

I know when the news came out about the way teams were seeded this year, only a handful of teams would have been affected.

 

[K84]

This is what I don’t like about the RPI rating.
No disrespect to South Rowan, how can they have a RPI rating of 3 when they have played nothing but a cupcake schedule. As dick vital would say they’ve had more cupcakes than hostess does.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

RPI will sort itself out

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

RPI is officially up on NCHSAA website...looks weird to start. But will change greatly as the year goes on

 

[ncfootball_17]

This is what I don’t like about the RPI rating.
No disrespect to South Rowan, how can they have a RPI rating of 3 when they have played nothing but a cupcake schedule. As dick vital would say they’ve had more cupcakes than hostess does.

More games that are played, the more accurate the RPI becomes. I wouldn't even look at RPI in football until after week 7 probably. In basketball, I always tell people to wait until teams have made it through first set of conference games.