We are now 27-9 on the season...
- Thread starter dawgstudent
- Start date
Probably 16-14 at minimum. We need to have 29 wins come Monday morning. 30 and I will feel VERY confident that we can host.
if we start winning, you won't know it from this board, only bitching when we lose.. win the gov's cup and start some smack and it get's deleted... God forbid we celebrate and throw some vulgarities at the Library Boys... looking at this board you would never know we just whipped their ***....
Sweep:
Auburn
Take 2-1:
@a&m or @om
Alabama
@vandy or USCe
Don't get swept:
@a&m or @om
@vandy or USCe
Leaves us at 16-14 regular season. Win 1 or 2 in Birmingham and I think we host. LSU and USCe I think are locks. I think it comes down to us, UK, and arky.
Don't see any way we sweep the Aggies.
I'm hoping that we can win the series, but its gonna be tougher than some on here are thinking.
I'm hoping that we can win the series, but its gonna be tougher than some on here are thinking.
I want to say I agree with you....but I saw us blow games at UK and at Arky, and we could have easily won or swept those series. I think we have a chance, maybe a small chance, but a chance at a sweep this weekend. I am cautiously expecting us to win 2 of 3 though.
Especially if Lindgren can go Sunday. If we get a W on Friday with Pollo and Lindgren can go on Sunday, book it, we sweep.
I think it's gonna come down to head to head wins. I think the SEC gets no more than 4 host spots. USCe and LSU are locks at this point. Just my thoughts.
17 the Aggies. They suck. They are a paper tiger. The sweep MAY depend on Lindgrens availability but even with Ross or somebody else I think we can take it to them.
Are you meaning to say USC? Or do you mean Vandy? I don't see how USC could be considered a "lock" but not Vandy.
I meant vandy. My bad.
It comes down to us, USCe, arky, and UK for two spots.
USCe series is getting to be a huge, "take the next step" kind of series. We win that one, it could really push us into the likelihood of hosting. We certainly have an edge over UK and the head to head win over South Carolina might get us in over them.
Personally, I don't think we host unless the SEC gets 5 host spots. I think we eventually finish ahead of UK, but SC and Arky have favorable schedules the rest of the way. And we are 3 games behind both. In other words, we need 2-3 sweeps.
We aren't hosting unless we have 17 or 18 SEC wins. Our RPI should continue to be really, really good, so that definitely works in our favor.
I have a fear that we will get snubbed because they let someone like Notre Dame or Indiana host just because of geographic purposes. Even though finishing 5th in the SEC is a bigger accomplishment than winning the Big 10 or Big East.
We aren't hosting unless we have 17 or 18 SEC wins. Our RPI should continue to be really, really good, so that definitely works in our favor.
I have a fear that we will get snubbed because they let someone like Notre Dame or Indiana host just because of geographic purposes. Even though finishing 5th in the SEC is a bigger accomplishment than winning the Big 10 or Big East.
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RPI is at 14 right now, which is third in the SEC. If we get to 16-14 in the SEC, and win our last two non-conference games, we will be 40-16 heading into the tournament. That should be good enough to host.
To get to 16-14, we have to finish 11-7 in our last six SEC series.
at Texas A&M. 2-1 is probable. Sweep is possible.
Auburn. Best chance at a sweep. Nothing less than 2-1 is acceptable.
at Vandy. Need to take 1.
5-4 in these three series is the minimum. 6-3 is what we need to be.
Alabama. 2-1 is probable. Sweep is possible.
at Ole Miss. Need to take 2. Can't get swept.
South Carolina. Again, 2 would be nice, but can't get swept/
again, 5-4 in these three series is okay if we go 6-3 in the next three. But 6-3 is very possible.
The lowest RPI team that we play in an SEC series is Auburn, and they are currently 39th. Our schedule will end up #1 in the nation. Avoiding Mizzou, Tennessee and Georgia sucks for W-L purposes, but our RPI will probably end up in the 10-11 range at 16-14. Uf we get hot and go 18-12, we could be top 8.
If I had to pick the 16 hosts right now:
1. LSU
2. North Carolina
3. Vanderbilt
4. Oregon State
5. Florida State
6. Indiana
7. Virginia
8. Cal State Fullerton
Other hosts:
Oregon
South Carolina
NC State
Kentucky
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Louisville
Can we break into this group? Heck yeah. I think the SEC gets four hosts. LSU and Vandy are definitely locks. South Carolina looks solid, and Kentucky edges out MSU, Ole Miss and Alabama at this time.
The ACC also gets four hosts, and is more likely to get five than the SEC (and they won't give 5 to both). Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech can break into this group.
I have the Pac 12 getting three bids. This could drop to two. UCLA is also in play here.
The Big East, I have with two bids. Notre Dame and Louisville. One of these two will get a host. I'd say Louisville is closer to a lock than ND. If the ACC did get five, the Big East would lose their second bid.
Big Ten: Indiana is playing good ball and is probably the best Big Ten team in years. They are a lock to host, and probably the only bid out of that conference.
Big 12: Weakest Big 12 in recent memory, but a major conference champ will get a host. Oklahoma is 27-6.
Big West. Cal State Fullerton is a lock to host.
In conclusion:
SEC (4 likely bids)
Locks: LSU, Vanderbilt
Probable: South Carolina
Right Now: Kentucky
In the Hunt: MSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas
ACC (4 likely bids, best chance at 5)
Locks: North Carolina, Florida State
Probable: Virginia, NC State
in the Hunt: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson
Pac 12 (3 likely bids)
Locks: Oregon State
Probable: Oregon
Right Now: Arizona State
In the Hunt: UCLA
Big East (1 likely bid, 2 possible)
Locks: None
Probable: Louisville
Right Now: Notre Dame
In the Hunt: None
Big Ten (1 host)
Locks: Indiana
In the Hunt: None
Big 12 (1 host)
Locks: Oklahoma
In the Hunt: None
Big West (1 host)
Locks: Cal State Fullerton
In the Hunt: None
Other
In the Hunt: I don't see anyone that isn't on this list with a possibility to host. 25 teams for 16 spots. Take out the locks and you have 17 teams vying for eight spots.
To get to 16-14, we have to finish 11-7 in our last six SEC series.
at Texas A&M. 2-1 is probable. Sweep is possible.
Auburn. Best chance at a sweep. Nothing less than 2-1 is acceptable.
at Vandy. Need to take 1.
5-4 in these three series is the minimum. 6-3 is what we need to be.
Alabama. 2-1 is probable. Sweep is possible.
at Ole Miss. Need to take 2. Can't get swept.
South Carolina. Again, 2 would be nice, but can't get swept/
again, 5-4 in these three series is okay if we go 6-3 in the next three. But 6-3 is very possible.
The lowest RPI team that we play in an SEC series is Auburn, and they are currently 39th. Our schedule will end up #1 in the nation. Avoiding Mizzou, Tennessee and Georgia sucks for W-L purposes, but our RPI will probably end up in the 10-11 range at 16-14. Uf we get hot and go 18-12, we could be top 8.
If I had to pick the 16 hosts right now:
1. LSU
2. North Carolina
3. Vanderbilt
4. Oregon State
5. Florida State
6. Indiana
7. Virginia
8. Cal State Fullerton
Other hosts:
Oregon
South Carolina
NC State
Kentucky
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Louisville
Can we break into this group? Heck yeah. I think the SEC gets four hosts. LSU and Vandy are definitely locks. South Carolina looks solid, and Kentucky edges out MSU, Ole Miss and Alabama at this time.
The ACC also gets four hosts, and is more likely to get five than the SEC (and they won't give 5 to both). Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech can break into this group.
I have the Pac 12 getting three bids. This could drop to two. UCLA is also in play here.
The Big East, I have with two bids. Notre Dame and Louisville. One of these two will get a host. I'd say Louisville is closer to a lock than ND. If the ACC did get five, the Big East would lose their second bid.
Big Ten: Indiana is playing good ball and is probably the best Big Ten team in years. They are a lock to host, and probably the only bid out of that conference.
Big 12: Weakest Big 12 in recent memory, but a major conference champ will get a host. Oklahoma is 27-6.
Big West. Cal State Fullerton is a lock to host.
In conclusion:
SEC (4 likely bids)
Locks: LSU, Vanderbilt
Probable: South Carolina
Right Now: Kentucky
In the Hunt: MSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas
ACC (4 likely bids, best chance at 5)
Locks: North Carolina, Florida State
Probable: Virginia, NC State
in the Hunt: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson
Pac 12 (3 likely bids)
Locks: Oregon State
Probable: Oregon
Right Now: Arizona State
In the Hunt: UCLA
Big East (1 likely bid, 2 possible)
Locks: None
Probable: Louisville
Right Now: Notre Dame
In the Hunt: None
Big Ten (1 host)
Locks: Indiana
In the Hunt: None
Big 12 (1 host)
Locks: Oklahoma
In the Hunt: None
Big West (1 host)
Locks: Cal State Fullerton
In the Hunt: None
Other
In the Hunt: I don't see anyone that isn't on this list with a possibility to host. 25 teams for 16 spots. Take out the locks and you have 17 teams vying for eight spots.
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Arkansas split with New Mexico last night...They are currently RPI #48, predicted RPI #51. They have to really, REALLY get going to have a hope of hosting from an RPI standpoint, and I dunno if it's even really going to be possible with their schedule going forward -- playing what is likely a sub-#50 SOS could really bite them...
