Weather Channel will be broadcasting from campus tomorrow beginning at 5 AM...
- Thread starter dawgstudent
- Start date
Check out my topic that I created on an update...Mike Seidel is already here w/ one of meteorology professors...I'm gonna try to meet him in the Climate Lab of Hilbun Hall in the morning..Meteorologist here...I made a topic update about this severe weather event going to unfold tomorrow...
http://sixpackspeak.yuku....omorrow---severe-weather
http://sixpackspeak.yuku....omorrow---severe-weather
On the school storm chase last year, we passed him almost every day going the opposite direction of us. We saw 5 tornadoes during our 2 weeks, and he saw zero. Terrible for him and his research team, but pretty cool for us.
Should be interesting tomorrow. If the winds stay out of the SW, I don't seeas big athreat for discrete supercells. But once everything gets linear, there will be a lot of widespread damage from possible bowing segments with thelow level flowasstrong as it's going to be.
Should be interesting tomorrow. If the winds stay out of the SW, I don't seeas big athreat for discrete supercells. But once everything gets linear, there will be a lot of widespread damage from possible bowing segments with thelow level flowasstrong as it's going to be.
I agree Henry..SW winds reduce the risk for discrete supercells, except right when the event gets going things will be discrete...Before it becomes one line though, splitting cells would be my thought b/c remember how we learned unidirectional winds can still produce splitting cell type supercells before they become one massive squall line that this one looks to become...I would be more worried about bow echoes and rotations in the line than out in front but w/ weather you never really know lol
Splitting could definitely happen, but I wonder if there will be enough time for the discrete cells out front to mature enough to split and it be worth watching. Unfortunately, I don't have the tools necessary to do some Bunkers vectors and try and figure out which directionanything that splitsmight go.
Timing is the key tomorrow. All of MS should watch out, but if discrete cells start splitting, that would suck. With as fast as some of those splitting segments move, some places could have very little time to be warned of an intense cell with rotation moving toward them. </p>
Timing is the key tomorrow. All of MS should watch out, but if discrete cells start splitting, that would suck. With as fast as some of those splitting segments move, some places could have very little time to be warned of an intense cell with rotation moving toward them. </p>
....must be like an EE dropout over at McCool listening to EE's talk shop. I kinda get what you're saying, but you're still over my head.
Still...the vibe out of NOAA is unimpressive (see below)
Unlike what they were saying prior to the big Yazoo City tornado. On that day, what they put out read like "GET OUT OF TOWN NOW OR DIG A DEEP HOLE AND HIDE!!!!"
Still...the vibe out of NOAA is unimpressive (see below)
Unlike what they were saying prior to the big Yazoo City tornado. On that day, what they put out read like "GET OUT OF TOWN NOW OR DIG A DEEP HOLE AND HIDE!!!!"
Code:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS STARTING AT MIDDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...PROGRESSING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SQUALL LINE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PERSONS IN THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM SYSTEM.Lol yeah its not gonna be any where near as bad as the Yazoo city day b/c that day we had southeast winds, an extremely unstable atmosphere, winds out the *** and well it was a day that after us finishing our mesoscale (severe weather) meteorology class and seeing the parameters and setup, I thought it was going to be a major tornado outbreak that day not one tornado..Anyway...This is more of a squall line risk but a chance for isolated supercells ahead of the main line...I thought our tornado risk was low all along due to southwest winds...They have a moderate risk from Jackson to Starkville:<div>
</div><div>5% tornado risk, 30% hail risk and 45% wind risk...Read posted forecast (mainly the bolded and underlined stuff)</div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><pre style="font-family: monospace; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; "><pre style="font-family: monospace; "> ...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY
AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS
MORNING FROM SE MO SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS A
BROAD AREA. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...ORGANIZING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE BEGINNING NEAR THE MS RIVER IN FAR ERN AR
LATE THIS MORNING AND DRIVING THE LINE ESEWD ACROSS WRN TN...SE AR
AND NRN MS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL MS...MIDDLE TN AND NW AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE WILL BE ON THE SEWD SIDE OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS WRN TN...NRN
TO CNTRL MS...NW AL...FAR SE AR AND FAR NE LA WHERE A MODERATE RISK
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL JETS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING
STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT
INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.[/code]</span>[/code]</span></div>
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY
AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS
MORNING FROM SE MO SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS A
BROAD AREA. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...ORGANIZING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE BEGINNING NEAR THE MS RIVER IN FAR ERN AR
LATE THIS MORNING AND DRIVING THE LINE ESEWD ACROSS WRN TN...SE AR
AND NRN MS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL MS...MIDDLE TN AND NW AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE WILL BE ON THE SEWD SIDE OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS WRN TN...NRN
TO CNTRL MS...NW AL...FAR SE AR AND FAR NE LA WHERE A MODERATE RISK
HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL JETS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING
STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT
INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.[/code]</span>[/code]</span></div>
Yep I agree it won't be long you will have to be on the cells immediately when they form to get a splitting cell and tornado if one formed, which I'm still leery on...Its gonna be an awesome squall line though I'll say that..mstatefan88 said:
That dayhad perfect conditions for destructive tornadoes. Today with winds out of the SW, the low level wind profile just isn't what is needed to have large discrete supercells.Doesn't mean it can't happen, but the setup certainly isn't as impressive. Most of the damage/tornado threat will be embedded withing the main line that comes through.
I understand you when it comes to the weather speak. A lot of times some of us weather guys can't help but go overboard and start throwing out a bunch of crazy terms a lot of people either don't understand or don't care to understand. It's pretty hard to hold it back, but that's part of doing something other than broadcast meteorology. We get a little more in depth on the operational side, so we throw around 10 dollar words a little bit more.
I understand you when it comes to the weather speak. A lot of times some of us weather guys can't help but go overboard and start throwing out a bunch of crazy terms a lot of people either don't understand or don't care to understand. It's pretty hard to hold it back, but that's part of doing something other than broadcast meteorology. We get a little more in depth on the operational side, so we throw around 10 dollar words a little bit more.
Dr. Brown fromour meteorology department has already been on as well, and he's about to go back on again at 8:30 I believe. Been pretty limited since there isn't much to talk about for now. But once things get going closer to MS, they will most likely be on Seidel on campus a little bit more.