Week 3 Massey Illinois Rankings

[stonedlizard]

Massey computer rankings for Illinois heading into week 3. While this obviously doesn't have the luxury of the eye test, always find it interesting to see how the completely objective rankings model matches up with those elsewhere around the state - specifically the DSR as I believe both strive to capture the same sort of "at this moment, how do teams stack based on what we know?" question. Note that the model should improve over time as it incorporates past performances.

The top 15 and link below for the philomathic few:
http://usatodayhss.com/rankings/computer/boys/football/IL/2016/1/

1. Loyola
2. Glenbard West
3. Prairie Ridge
4. Brother Rice
5. Homewood-Flossmoor
6. Nazareth Academy
7. East St. Louis
8. Waubonsie Valley
9. Nequa Valley
10. Palatine
11. Batavia
12. Maine South
13. Lincoln-way East
14. Mount Carmel
15. Montini

My takeaways...

• Naz somehow has a top SOS ranking? Looks to have a "convention bump" as well
• Prairie Ridge getting the huge credit for big wins week 1&2
• Lot of love for the DVC, though not necessarily the two one would think
• LWE & MC getting hit for "lighter" early games, will be interesting to see change after week 3

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Don't the initial rankings utilize "coaches surveys" on # of starters returning, QB back? RB back? etc? and then also take SoS into consideration? Some teams may not have submitted a returning starter survey or something and they start way back of the bus in the rankings?

I'm shocked that GBN is not in the top 15. I'm wondering maybe they started way back in the rankings because no coach survey was submitted?

 

[kpjasion]

I have to plead ignorance on this, how do Massey and MaxPreps(CalPreps) do their computerized ratings?

Max Preps is somewhat similar:

1. Loyola Academy (Wilmette)
2. Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake)
3. Brother Rice (Chicago)
4. Palatine
5. IC Catholic Prep (Elmhurst)
6. Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort)
7. St. Charles North (St. Charles)
8. Maine South (Park Ridge)
9. Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn)
10. Waubonsie Valley (Aurora)
11. Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park)
12. Neuqua Valley (Naperville)
13. Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield)
14. Stevenson (Lincolnshire)
15. Cary-Grove (Cary)
16. East St. Louis
17. Glenbard North (Carol Stream)
18. St. Laurence (Burbank)
19. Montini (Lombard)
20. Wheaton North (Wheaton)
21. Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor)
22. Normal Community (Normal)
23. Crete-Monee (Crete)
24. DeKalb
25. Barrington

Question is..who's right or more accurate? Tribune, SunTimes, and Edgy ratings are really just the opinion of 1 person..open to bias and subjectivity. The DSR is more people, but again it's people open to bias, subjectivity, and (IMO) skewing toward traditional powers.

To me it seems these computerized ones attempt to remove those..question is how do they do that and how accurate is that? Anyone have insights on their methodologies?

 

[stonedlizard]

I have to plead ignorance on this, how do Massey and MaxPreps(CalPreps) do their computerized ratings?

Max Preps is somewhat similar:

1. Loyola Academy (Wilmette)
2. Prairie Ridge (Crystal Lake)
3. Brother Rice (Chicago)
4. Palatine
5. IC Catholic Prep (Elmhurst)
6. Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort)
7. St. Charles North (St. Charles)
8. Maine South (Park Ridge)
9. Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn)
10. Waubonsie Valley (Aurora)
11. Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park)
12. Neuqua Valley (Naperville)
13. Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield)
14. Stevenson (Lincolnshire)
15. Cary-Grove (Cary)
16. East St. Louis
17. Glenbard North (Carol Stream)
18. St. Laurence (Burbank)
19. Montini (Lombard)
20. Wheaton North (Wheaton)
21. Homewood-Flossmoor (Flossmoor)
22. Normal Community (Normal)
23. Crete-Monee (Crete)
24. DeKalb
25. Barrington

Question is..who's right or more accurate? Tribune, SunTimes, and Edgy ratings are really just the opinion of 1 person..open to bias and subjectivity. The DSR is more people, but again it's people open to bias, subjectivity, and (IMO) skewing toward traditional powers.

To me it seems these computerized ones attempt to remove those..question is how do they do that and how accurate is that? Anyone have insights on their methodologies?

A lot of information can be found here..http://www.masseyratings.com/faq.php
Suffice it to say that there's not necessarily a succinct answer beyond what you've already detailed without diving into the mathematics. While both ratings systems attempt to remove the biases you've mentioned, they also have their own limitations (ie namely the data available for input this early on) and own inherent biases (ie the data chosen for use in each system).

Have been toying with the idea of putting together a composite ranking (edgytim + DSR + Massey + reputable newspaper rankings), but fear this may undermine the work that goes into each respective rankings. Something I would not like to do.

 

[mc140]

Mt. Carmel is ranked 186th in that usatodayhss.com link. Just behind Oak Forest, Decatur Eisenhower and Shepard.

I know they went the the Naz route in scheduling, but that is ridiculous.

 

[ignazio]

Mt. Carmel is ranked 186th in that usatodayhss.com link. Just behind Oak Forest, Decatur Eisenhower and Shepard.

I know they went the the Naz route in scheduling, but that is ridiculous.

Harrisburg AND Mt. Vernon are ranked higher than Dunbar and Leo.

Go Golden Aces!

 

[mc140]

Meh it was actually Mt. Carmel, IL with Mt. Carmels logo.

 

[Wassup13_rivals219252]

Well I think the most local rankings are the best, thus Edgy. But remember Edgy includes Chicagoland only and would not rank SHG, Rochester, East St. Louis and some others in his rankings.

IC at #5 way too high and probably are not incorporating them as a class 3A school/MaxPreps. They should be somewhere between 25-30 right now. @ICCP_Tailgate

Wassup

 

[stonedlizard]

I'd put more faith in Masseys model than CalPreps given the disparity between the two and what we've seen from the non robots.