There were 269 teams projected to finish with records of 5-4 or better. This was slightly lower than I thought it would be.
I believe the point break will come at 37 or 38 points. If the number 269 increases the point total will likely settle at 38 or 39, or if it goes lower than 269 it will start skewing down.
The teams I have currently projected to finish 5-4 without enough playoff points are: Ridgewood, LaSalle-Peru, Oakwood, Red Bud, Addison Trail, Aurora Central Catholic, St. Ignatius, Crystal Lake Central, Thornton, Paris, Dakota, Oak Lawn and Harrisburg.
Note: Class 7A has been revised to reflect Andrew Week 1 forfeit win over Thornton
Class 8A
Smallest school in the field: Glenbard West
(32) Joliet West at (1) Lincoln-Way East
(17) Minooka at (16) Glenbard West
(25) Naperville North at (8) Naperville Central
(24) Edwardsville at (9) Huntley
(29) Palatine at (4) Oswego East
(20) South Elgin at (13) Hinsdale Central
(28) Evanston at (5) Marist
(21) Aurora West at (12) Niles Notre Dame
(31) Glenbrook South at (2) Barrington
(18) Oswego at (15) Stevenson
(26) New Trier at (7) Maine South
(23) Gurnee Warren at (10) Loyola
(30) Downers Grove South at (3) Lyons
(19) St. Charles East at (14) Bolingbrook
(27) Oak Park-River Forest at (6) Homewood-Flossmoor
(22) Curie at (11) Neuqua Valley
Class 7A
Smallest school in the field: Rockford Auburn
Largest school in the field: Plainfield North
(32) Machesney Park Harlem at (1) Batavia
(17) Buffalo Grove at (16) Rolling Meadows
(25) Simeon at (8) Hononegah
(24) Belleville West at (9) East St. Louis
(29) Fenwick at (4) Lincoln Park
(20) Andrew at (13) St. Charles North
(28) Libertyville at (5) Lincoln-Way Central
(21) Benet at (12) St. Rita
(31) Glenbard North at (2) Normal Community
(18) Pekin at (15) Plainfield North
(26) Maine West at (7) Hersey
(23) Jacobs at (10) Willowbrook
(30) Schaumburg at (3) Lake Zurich
(19) Mt. Carmel at (14) Rockford East
(27) Glenbrook South at (6) Rockford Auburn
(22) Wheaton North at (11) Lincoln-Way West
Class 6A
Smallest school in the field: Lakes
Largest school in the field: Hoffman Estates
North Bracket
(16) St. Viator at (1) Prairie Ridge
(9) Marmion at (8) Cary-Grove
(13) Grayslake North at (4) Lakes
(12) Montini at (5) Riverside-Brookfield
(15) Lake Forest at (2) DeKalb
(10) Mather at (7) St. Laurence
(14) Hinsdale South at (3) Nazareth
(11) Deerfield at (6) Hoffman Estates
South Bracket
(16) Springfield at (1) Lemont
(9) Providence at (8) Peoria
(13) Danville at (4) Oak Lawn Richards
(12) Chatham Glenwood at (5) Shepard
(15) Perspectives/Leadership at (2) Normal West
(10) Quincy at (7) Blue Island Eisenhower
(14) Rock Island at (3) Crete-Monee
(11) T.F. South at (6) Sacred Heart Griffin
Class 5A
Smallest school in the field: Dixon
Largest school in the field: Oak Forest
North Bracket
(16) Burlington Central at (1) Sterling
(9) Elmwood Park at (8) Morgan Park
(13) Rochelle at (4) Dixon
(12) Oak Forest at (5) Payton
(15) Freeport at (2) Phillips
(10) Woodstock North at (7) Back of the Yards
(14) Westinghouse at (3) Antioch
(11) Solorio at (6) Lindblom
South Bracket
(16) Mahomet-Seymour at (1) Highland
(9) Rich Central at (8) Triad
(13) Mount Zion at (4) Morris
(12) Peoria Richwoods at (5) Dunlap
(15) Kankakee at (2) Washington
(10) Geneseo at (7) Centralia
(14) Marion at (3) Hillcrest
(11) Morton at (6) Decatur MacArthur
Class 4A
Largest team in field: Taylorville (Rochester is No. 2)
Smallest team in field: Peotone
Northern Bracket
(16) St. Edward at (1) Herscher
(9) Urban Prep-Bronzeville at (8) Genoa-Kingston
(13) Richmond-Burton at (4) Raby
(12) Urban Prep-Engelwood at (5) Chicago Sullivan
(15) North Chicago at (2) Johnsburg
(10) Wheaton Academy at (7) Coal City
(14) Kewanee at (3) Rock Island Alleman
(11) Manteno at (6) Peotone
Southern Bracket
(16) Olney (Richland County) at (1) Tolono Unity
(9) Wood River-East Alton at (8) Columbia
(13) Benton at (4) Herrin
(12) Pontiac at (5) Taylorville
(15) Breese Central at (2) Rochester
(10) Greenville at (7) Effingham
(14) Quincy Notre Dame at (3) Watseka
(11) Carterville at (6) Althoff
Class 3A
Largest team in the field: Bloomington Central Catholic
Smallest team in the field: Pana
Northern Bracket
(16) Seneca at (1) Farmington
(9) Winnebago at (8) Bloomington Central Catholic
(13) Paxton at (4) IC Catholic
(12) Spring Valley Hall at (5) Elmwood
(15) St. Joseph-Ogden at (2) Williamsville
(10) Eureka at (7) Wilmington
(14) Lisle at (3) Byron
(11) Poplar Grove North Boone at (6) Monticello
Southern Bracket
(16) Hillsboro at (1) Fairfield
(9) Marshall at (8) Beardstown
(13) West Frankfort at (4) St. Teresa
(12) Vandalia at (5) Pana
(15) Virden North Mac at (2) Carlinville
(10) Newton at (7) Alton Marquette
(14) Pleasant Plains at (3) Anna-Jonesboro
(11) DuQuoin at (6) Sesser-Valier
Class 2A
Largest school in field: Trenton Wesclin
Smallest school in field: Chester
Northern Bracket
(16) Mercer County at (1) Sterling Newman
(9) Clifton Central at (8) Orion
(13) Hope Academy at (4) Taylor Ridge Rockridge
(12) Aurora Christian at (5) Chicago Orr
(15) Bureau Valley at (2) Westville
(10) Savanna West Carroll at (7) Bismarck-Henning
(14) Chicago Marshall at (3) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(11) Fieldcrest at (6) Lanark Eastland
Southern Bracket
(16) Auburn at (1) Tuscola
(9) Sciota West Prairie at (8) Eldorado
(13) Villa Grove at (4) Tri-Valley
(12) Illini West at (5) Maroa-Forsyth
(15) Carmi White County at (2) Trenton Wesclin
(10) Chester at (7) Shelbyville
(14) Knoxville at (3) Hamilton West Hancock
(11) Carlyle at (6) Deer Creek Mackinaw
Class 1A
Largest School in field: Fulton
Northern Bracket
(16) Polo at (1) Lena-Winslow
(9) Milledgeville at (8) Ottawa Marquette
(13) Orangeville at (4) Kewanee Wethersfield
(12) Cuba North Fulton at (5) Abingdon
(15) Stark County at (2) Aquin
(10) Stockton at (7) Fulton
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Forreston
(11) Chicago Military/Bronzeville at (6) Princeville
Southern Bracket
(16) Camp Point Central at (1) Red Hill
(9) Nokomis at (8) Warrensburg-Latham
(13) Madison at (4) Brown County
(12) Fisher at (5) Toledo Cumberland
(15) Moweaqua Central A&M at (2) Decatur Lutheran
(10) Arcola at (7) Hardin Calhoun
(14) Salt Fork at (3) Carrollton
(11) Argenta-Oreana at (6) Athens
I believe the point break will come at 37 or 38 points. If the number 269 increases the point total will likely settle at 38 or 39, or if it goes lower than 269 it will start skewing down.
The teams I have currently projected to finish 5-4 without enough playoff points are: Ridgewood, LaSalle-Peru, Oakwood, Red Bud, Addison Trail, Aurora Central Catholic, St. Ignatius, Crystal Lake Central, Thornton, Paris, Dakota, Oak Lawn and Harrisburg.
Note: Class 7A has been revised to reflect Andrew Week 1 forfeit win over Thornton
Class 8A
Smallest school in the field: Glenbard West
(32) Joliet West at (1) Lincoln-Way East
(17) Minooka at (16) Glenbard West
(25) Naperville North at (8) Naperville Central
(24) Edwardsville at (9) Huntley
(29) Palatine at (4) Oswego East
(20) South Elgin at (13) Hinsdale Central
(28) Evanston at (5) Marist
(21) Aurora West at (12) Niles Notre Dame
(31) Glenbrook South at (2) Barrington
(18) Oswego at (15) Stevenson
(26) New Trier at (7) Maine South
(23) Gurnee Warren at (10) Loyola
(30) Downers Grove South at (3) Lyons
(19) St. Charles East at (14) Bolingbrook
(27) Oak Park-River Forest at (6) Homewood-Flossmoor
(22) Curie at (11) Neuqua Valley
Class 7A
Smallest school in the field: Rockford Auburn
Largest school in the field: Plainfield North
(32) Machesney Park Harlem at (1) Batavia
(17) Buffalo Grove at (16) Rolling Meadows
(25) Simeon at (8) Hononegah
(24) Belleville West at (9) East St. Louis
(29) Fenwick at (4) Lincoln Park
(20) Andrew at (13) St. Charles North
(28) Libertyville at (5) Lincoln-Way Central
(21) Benet at (12) St. Rita
(31) Glenbard North at (2) Normal Community
(18) Pekin at (15) Plainfield North
(26) Maine West at (7) Hersey
(23) Jacobs at (10) Willowbrook
(30) Schaumburg at (3) Lake Zurich
(19) Mt. Carmel at (14) Rockford East
(27) Glenbrook South at (6) Rockford Auburn
(22) Wheaton North at (11) Lincoln-Way West
Class 6A
Smallest school in the field: Lakes
Largest school in the field: Hoffman Estates
North Bracket
(16) St. Viator at (1) Prairie Ridge
(9) Marmion at (8) Cary-Grove
(13) Grayslake North at (4) Lakes
(12) Montini at (5) Riverside-Brookfield
(15) Lake Forest at (2) DeKalb
(10) Mather at (7) St. Laurence
(14) Hinsdale South at (3) Nazareth
(11) Deerfield at (6) Hoffman Estates
South Bracket
(16) Springfield at (1) Lemont
(9) Providence at (8) Peoria
(13) Danville at (4) Oak Lawn Richards
(12) Chatham Glenwood at (5) Shepard
(15) Perspectives/Leadership at (2) Normal West
(10) Quincy at (7) Blue Island Eisenhower
(14) Rock Island at (3) Crete-Monee
(11) T.F. South at (6) Sacred Heart Griffin
Class 5A
Smallest school in the field: Dixon
Largest school in the field: Oak Forest
North Bracket
(16) Burlington Central at (1) Sterling
(9) Elmwood Park at (8) Morgan Park
(13) Rochelle at (4) Dixon
(12) Oak Forest at (5) Payton
(15) Freeport at (2) Phillips
(10) Woodstock North at (7) Back of the Yards
(14) Westinghouse at (3) Antioch
(11) Solorio at (6) Lindblom
South Bracket
(16) Mahomet-Seymour at (1) Highland
(9) Rich Central at (8) Triad
(13) Mount Zion at (4) Morris
(12) Peoria Richwoods at (5) Dunlap
(15) Kankakee at (2) Washington
(10) Geneseo at (7) Centralia
(14) Marion at (3) Hillcrest
(11) Morton at (6) Decatur MacArthur
Class 4A
Largest team in field: Taylorville (Rochester is No. 2)
Smallest team in field: Peotone
Northern Bracket
(16) St. Edward at (1) Herscher
(9) Urban Prep-Bronzeville at (8) Genoa-Kingston
(13) Richmond-Burton at (4) Raby
(12) Urban Prep-Engelwood at (5) Chicago Sullivan
(15) North Chicago at (2) Johnsburg
(10) Wheaton Academy at (7) Coal City
(14) Kewanee at (3) Rock Island Alleman
(11) Manteno at (6) Peotone
Southern Bracket
(16) Olney (Richland County) at (1) Tolono Unity
(9) Wood River-East Alton at (8) Columbia
(13) Benton at (4) Herrin
(12) Pontiac at (5) Taylorville
(15) Breese Central at (2) Rochester
(10) Greenville at (7) Effingham
(14) Quincy Notre Dame at (3) Watseka
(11) Carterville at (6) Althoff
Class 3A
Largest team in the field: Bloomington Central Catholic
Smallest team in the field: Pana
Northern Bracket
(16) Seneca at (1) Farmington
(9) Winnebago at (8) Bloomington Central Catholic
(13) Paxton at (4) IC Catholic
(12) Spring Valley Hall at (5) Elmwood
(15) St. Joseph-Ogden at (2) Williamsville
(10) Eureka at (7) Wilmington
(14) Lisle at (3) Byron
(11) Poplar Grove North Boone at (6) Monticello
Southern Bracket
(16) Hillsboro at (1) Fairfield
(9) Marshall at (8) Beardstown
(13) West Frankfort at (4) St. Teresa
(12) Vandalia at (5) Pana
(15) Virden North Mac at (2) Carlinville
(10) Newton at (7) Alton Marquette
(14) Pleasant Plains at (3) Anna-Jonesboro
(11) DuQuoin at (6) Sesser-Valier
Class 2A
Largest school in field: Trenton Wesclin
Smallest school in field: Chester
Northern Bracket
(16) Mercer County at (1) Sterling Newman
(9) Clifton Central at (8) Orion
(13) Hope Academy at (4) Taylor Ridge Rockridge
(12) Aurora Christian at (5) Chicago Orr
(15) Bureau Valley at (2) Westville
(10) Savanna West Carroll at (7) Bismarck-Henning
(14) Chicago Marshall at (3) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(11) Fieldcrest at (6) Lanark Eastland
Southern Bracket
(16) Auburn at (1) Tuscola
(9) Sciota West Prairie at (8) Eldorado
(13) Villa Grove at (4) Tri-Valley
(12) Illini West at (5) Maroa-Forsyth
(15) Carmi White County at (2) Trenton Wesclin
(10) Chester at (7) Shelbyville
(14) Knoxville at (3) Hamilton West Hancock
(11) Carlyle at (6) Deer Creek Mackinaw
Class 1A
Largest School in field: Fulton
Northern Bracket
(16) Polo at (1) Lena-Winslow
(9) Milledgeville at (8) Ottawa Marquette
(13) Orangeville at (4) Kewanee Wethersfield
(12) Cuba North Fulton at (5) Abingdon
(15) Stark County at (2) Aquin
(10) Stockton at (7) Fulton
(14) Kirkland Hiawatha at (3) Forreston
(11) Chicago Military/Bronzeville at (6) Princeville
Southern Bracket
(16) Camp Point Central at (1) Red Hill
(9) Nokomis at (8) Warrensburg-Latham
(13) Madison at (4) Brown County
(12) Fisher at (5) Toledo Cumberland
(15) Moweaqua Central A&M at (2) Decatur Lutheran
(10) Arcola at (7) Hardin Calhoun
(14) Salt Fork at (3) Carrollton
(11) Argenta-Oreana at (6) Athens
